Corepuncher's Account Talk

I just don't know what the reaction will be? Is saving Freddie and Fannie a bad thing? Will our interest rates go back up to 16%, or will they go down? I really don't know. but am happy in the "G" until the dust settles.:cool:

From what I can tell, those who bought into the market the end of last week will be rewarded with a pop. Whether you should sell, and when...is the million dollar question.
 
From what I can tell, those who bought into the market the end of last week will be rewarded with a pop. Whether you should sell, and when...is the million dollar question.


Hello Corepuncher, A pop in equities should send the F - Fund lower. A drop in equities should send the F - Fund Higher. Until this correlation stops by a small margin of error I think it is safe to remain in the F. We are in a Bear Market! :)
 
You are right, that relationship exists, but I just think that it could start to fail.

Read this and tell me what you think:

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/570-CALL-TO-ACTION-Government-Fraud-And-You.html


I pretty much already have a grasp on everything that was written in that column. "That news has already been baked into the market in my opinion".

Many thing's are Bad right now. We definitely are in a Housing Bubble. We are not going to come out of this for awhile. I think more banks are going to fail.

I am kinda caught between a Crossroad's right now. Commercial building is happening everywhere, (Shopping Center's galore). Housing not so much.


Everything is and has been relative so far being in a Bear Market. We will have Bad down day's as well as Up. But the general trend is down. I want to see what is going to happen Monday. If I make any IFT's, "unless I am lucky" I will have to make it by 7:50 A.M. Max...


I am just entering my busy season closing swimming pools. 60 Hour Work weeks for the next 8 weeks..:mad:

Any view to view comments are welcome. :)
 
MAN I AM PUMPED for MONDAY! Anyone else feel this way? It's gonna be a HUGE volume day for sure.

If we do indeed have a massive rally Monday (I'm thinking 3% +), should we take profits or let it ride? Lately, our up trends have lasted at least for 2 back to back days. Mon-Tue-Wed perhaps. If we do rocket hard, last time I waited for a "stall" day to signal the top of the rally. Also, if it looks like you will penetrate the upper B. Band by days end, it might be good day to sell (A-LA August 11th).

This may provide a "backstop" to the housing spiral, but we have to see what it does to rates. If bonds sell off, rates will skyrocket...not good for homes, cars loans, etc.
 
Having bought in Thurs 60% in S and I, then 65% C and 30% S on Friday, I,ve taken almost a 3% paper hit. I think big players drove the mkt down. Like you I have a real delimma about when to sell assuming mkt goes up.
 
MAN I AM PUMPED for MONDAY! Anyone else feel this way? It's gonna be a HUGE volume day for sure.

If we do indeed have a massive rally Monday (I'm thinking 3% +), should we take profits or let it ride?......

36% annual return

If I get 3% Monday or this week, it's back to the Gee.:D
 
MAN I AM PUMPED for MONDAY! Anyone else feel this way? It's gonna be a HUGE volume day for sure.

If we do indeed have a massive rally Monday (I'm thinking 3% +), should we take profits or let it ride? Lately, our up trends have lasted at least for 2 back to back days. Mon-Tue-Wed perhaps. If we do rocket hard, last time I waited for a "stall" day to signal the top of the rally. Also, if it looks like you will penetrate the upper B. Band by days end, it might be good day to sell (A-LA August 11th).

This may provide a "backstop" to the housing spiral, but we have to see what it does to rates. If bonds sell off, rates will skyrocket...not good for homes, cars loans, etc.

I AM! Got back from the Fort Madison, IA rodeo last night and I am trying to catch up on all the posts, news, and weather.
 
I AM! Got back from the Fort Madison, IA rodeo last night and I am trying to catch up on all the posts, news, and weather.

I know the F Fund could never be trusted here and I would expect it to drop between 15 - 20 cents in the next day once folks digest the plan. Basically the Fed has a stop Gap for the short term so the 2 year note will really take a hit and we may soon see the F Fund at $11.80 but I don't expect that right away.

What was the Emergency - Foreign Countries would no longer be sucked in here and were leaving fast.

This should raise concerns but the stop gap is the Fed will set up it's own system and we will all be paying for it. It will be tougher to get that 30 year.

I see a down day/week because what this shows is no one wants to invest here and since that was the basic words hidden behind a long speech we are on our own.

This is a World Crisis and we have to bring our own shovel. I really don't think the average investor will like this because it shows more failure and this should have been done in 1990 or in that time frame.
 
Braveheart,
Longer term I think you are correct as the people will see this for what it is a bail out of businesses at taxpayer expense. A number of people should be going to jail but won't.

Very short term, the crooks will make a bundle because they will speculate the large inflow of "free money" provided by the taxpayers. Also, the gov. will clean house of all the exec in FRE and FNM. "The scape goats." Those scape goat did exactly what the politicians and Wall Street wanted them to do.

Now on the flip side, all those shares go to zero and an number of lenders, funds, investment houses, and countries hold those shares. Someone in China, Japan, and Russia is going to be pissed about this one.

So the long term implications are ugly but the after hours market action told a different story. The charts told a different story also, a solid close tomorrow will confirm a move up and may goat me into staying in the C fund a while longer, 13% financial weight.
 
I liked Hessians article:

http://www.trivisonno.com/the-fan-fred-short-squeeze-rally

A bounce to 1280 would jive with my forecast of a bounce to the 20 SMA after an initial bollinger band penetration. See late October 2007 and late May this year. I believe this rally may act in a similar fashion.

It is scary how we went from 1300 to 1217 in 4 days...and that was after a long, extended period of basically sideways movement so it wasn't like there was much volatility yet. Things are going to get very interesting, and I for one am not convinced anything is fixed. Looking to sell. 100% out of stocks by 1280.
 
I liked Hessians article:

http://www.trivisonno.com/the-fan-fred-short-squeeze-rally

A bounce to 1280 would jive with my forecast of a bounce to the 20 SMA after an initial bollinger band penetration. See late October 2007 and late May this year. I believe this rally may act in a similar fashion.

It is scary how we went from 1300 to 1217 in 4 days...and that was after a long, extended period of basically sideways movement so it wasn't like there was much volatility yet. Things are going to get very interesting, and I for one am not convinced anything is fixed. Looking to sell. 100% out of stocks by 1280.

Pretty close to my plan as well. Though I may not jump all the way, maybe 75% off the table. I'm thinking we could reach 1300.
 
I think that Paulson and Burntankle may be trying to force capitulation? WE are on the way to bringing our economy back from this BUST, we must hit the bottom before we get the cure, just like a drug addict!:cool: skull.gif
 
If the After market numbers on Friday hold up, you'd be looking at open 1265 or about... It won't take much to get to your 1280 level from the gap up.


I liked Hessians article:

http://www.trivisonno.com/the-fan-fred-short-squeeze-rally

A bounce to 1280 would jive with my forecast of a bounce to the 20 SMA after an initial bollinger band penetration. See late October 2007 and late May this year. I believe this rally may act in a similar fashion.

It is scary how we went from 1300 to 1217 in 4 days...and that was after a long, extended period of basically sideways movement so it wasn't like there was much volatility yet. Things are going to get very interesting, and I for one am not convinced anything is fixed. Looking to sell. 100% out of stocks by 1280.
 
U.S. Stock-Index Futures Jump on Fannie, Freddie Takeover Plan

By Jeff Kearns

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures rallied on speculation the government's takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two biggest backers of mortgage loans, will help financial companies weather the subprime mortgage crisis.
Fannie and Freddie, which make up almost half the U.S. home- loan market, were seized after the biggest surge in mortgage defaults in at least three decades, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in Washington. Both fell more than 80 percent since the start of the year as subprime mortgage defaults caused more than $500 billion in credit market losses among banks worldwide.
``This is significantly positive for the market,'' said Walter ``Bucky'' Hellwig, who helps oversee $30 billion at Morgan Asset Management in Birmingham, Alabama, and doesn't own Fannie or Freddie shares. ``Investors were looking for some kind of resolution to the problem and this eliminates a lot of uncertainty.''
Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures expiring in September gained 30.3 points, or 2.4 percent, to 1,271.4 at 7:27 p.m. in New York. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 237, or 2.1 percent, to 11,464. Nasdaq-100 Index futures rose 37, or 2.1 percent, to 1,807.
U.S. stocks dropped last week, sending the S&P 500 to its steepest weekly retreat in three months, led by commodity producers as falling fuel and materials prices signaled global economic growth is slowing.
Preferred Stock
The Federal Housing Finance Agency will take over Fannie and Freddie under a so-called conservatorship, replacing their chief executives and eliminating their dividends. Under the plan, the Treasury will receive $1 billion of senior preferred stock in coming days, with warrants representing ownership stakes of 79.9 percent of Fannie and Freddie.
Fannie closed last week at $7.04, up 2.9 percent from a week earlier. Freddie ended at $5.10, up 13 percent on the week.
The yen fell against the dollar and the euro, shoring up investors' appetite for higher-yielding assets funded in Japan. The yen declined to 108.51 per dollar as of 7:37 a.m. in Tokyo, from 107.73 in New York on Sept. 5. The Japanese currency slid to 155.19 per euro, from 153.67 last week.
Futures on the Nikkei-225 Stock Average, the benchmark for Japanese stocks, advanced, climbing 2.7 percent to 12,485 in Singapore.
``The market likes less uncertainty and this takes care of that,'' said E. William Stone, who oversees $66 billion as chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia. ``If this helps re-stabilize the housing situation it's got to be looked at as a positive.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ayjUlfxAd5GU&refer=home
 
I want to see a 5% gain in the S&P!

Really, everyone knew this was coming. Unfortunately, there are other financial firms in bad shape. Some may go under.

I see NASDAQ futures are also up hard. LOL. Remember what brought them down in the first place? It wasn't housing...it's the economy stupid! We are losing jobs. Writedowns will continue, especially if oil rebounds like Goldman says it will.

I don't know...this "euphoria" combined with short covering early this week may be an opportune time to get out. Freddie/Fannie bailout not going to help the broader economy. We are losing jobs. Credit will remain tight. Watch the credit card bubble blow up soon.

Also, everyone knew this was coming. This is going to be a silly rally, IMO. Yeah, people will ride it as far as it takes them, but I say short of 1300 everyone will short the crap out the market once again. If that is the case, it might be best to sell COB Monday (if we can rise to near 1300 all at once).
 
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You probably will get it too. From what I have seen, market is usually at least x2 early futures.

I want to see a 5% gain in the S&P!

Really, everyone knew this was coming. Unfortunately, there are other financial firms in bad shape. Some may go under.

I see NASDAQ futures are also up hard. LOL. Remember what brought them down in the first place? It wasn't housing...it's the economy stupid! We are losing jobs. Writedowns will continue, especially if oil rebounds like Goldman says it will.

I don't know...this "euphoria" combined with short covering early this week may be an opportune time to get out. Freddie/Fannie bailout not going to help the broader economy. We are losing jobs. Credit will remain tight. Watch the credit card bubble blow up soon.
 
Tend to agree that tomorrow will be a big day for investors. However, I beleive the market surge will be short lived (i.e. provide a big one day pop,) but I remain convinced there is significiant downside knocking at the door.. I'm undertstand the logic but I'm still ticked that American taxpayers are now bailing out foriegn investors, and the crooks who created the bad loans and this entire rotten environment..I feel a major tax increase in my future...wait..it just arrived..

FS
 
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