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I should also mention that my observations of excess bearishness on Trader's Talk has been confirmed. We may see some weakness this week, but the up trend is still intact.
 
coolhand said:
I should also mention that my observations of excess bearishness on Trader's Talk has been confirmed. We may see some weakness this week, but the up trend is still intact.
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Good info Coolhand,

It go's along with my feelings and analysis. Too many +' SSS (pluses) to go negative.

With 2 IFT'S a month we have to take the good with the bad but, there must be more good than bad. The Game has all kind of Rules, Ain't they Fun.... :sick::blink:
 
coolhand said:
It took 3 weeks, but Don has finally confirmed the last SS buy signal as valid. He goes into detail why he feels this is a new bull market too. Be aware that some of the charts are showing July and not August so they aren't current. He's using them to explain the buy signal.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=109772
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http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=105591

Coolhand,

Which of the links you have posted above is better in order to follow the Seven Sentinels on a daily basis? Tia.
 
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3

This link of the USD chart shows that the U.S. dollar has been on the rise lately. Does anyone see the dollar meeting upside resistance? Assuming that the Bond sales are strong this week due to FED or PPT involvement, and assuming that the FED doesn't announce the beginning of raising rates anytime soon, would this not make the Euro rise more in relation to the dollar -- thus favoring the I fund?
 
airlift said:
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3

This link of the USD chart shows that the U.S. dollar has been on the rise lately. Does anyone see the dollar meeting upside resistance? Assuming that the Bond sales are strong this week due to FED or PPT involvement, and assuming that the FED doesn't announce the beginning of raising rates anytime soon, would this not make the Euro rise more in relation to the dollar -- thus favoring the I fund?
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Not sure about the Euro but I watch the I - Fund based on this index.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DXY

Also you have to take everything one step at a time. I can only read into the game based on real time events happening.

Maybe someone else can chime in based on your scenario. :)
 
poolman said:
Not sure about the Euro but I watch the I - Fund based on this index.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DXY

Also you have to take everything one step at a time. I can only read into the game based on real time events happening.

Maybe someone else can chime in based on your scenario. :)
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A couple of years ago, before the IFT restrictions were approved, 350z was excellent in a thread that dealt with the I fund. We made a pile of money without the IFT restrictions. Perhaps he remembers, or perhaps others might, but I forget the details of the discussions. The essence was that the IFT fund had a larger percentage weighted in England (FTSE) or something to that effect; and that when the Euro rose more than the USD the effect was very positive for the I Fund.

I will appreciate the invaluable input of any member who can provide a better recollection of the relationship between the Euro/USD and the USD/Yen. We could benefit from that knowledge, which I have forgotten (regretably). (Maybe Sugar and Spice, Show-Me, Nnuut, Griffin, Mayday, Fundsurfer, or others I might have missed). :)
 
The USD Index is going to have to break 80 for a rally to really stand for something. 80 was pretty good support from 1991-2005 until it broke in 2007. I hate to sound like a chartist, but the currency markets are complicated like that. It's been about the dollar all along.

Thanks for the update on the SS and another thoughtful post from Don. Why is it that every time someone makes a good post on that site everyone piles in and talks about shorting? How many times can one get squeezed out and come back for more?

I can't help but to share this because it has to stand for something. Look. Today I drove back from New York City area on the NYS Thruway and when we exited, the traffic was backed up for 2 miles to pay the toll with every lane was open. 2 miles! If that's what a recession looks like, then bring it.
 
Bullitt said:
Thanks for the update on the SS and another thoughtful post from Don. Why is it that every time someone makes a good post on that site everyone piles in and talks about shorting? How many times can one get squeezed out and come back for more?
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Interestingly a lot of those traders don't believe in sentiment a whole lot either. Mark Young has to champion his sentiment work every now and again. They don't get that part of the market. I like to use both.

While the market may be overbought in the ST it was oversold by a much wider margin in the LT. I can understand being flat right now, but short? Unless it's a hedge.

After the great exchange of information this weekend, I'm much more comfortable with my TSP allocation now than I was on Friday. But I know better than to marry my position too. Still watching the action. :cool:
 
Bullitt said:
The USD Index is going to have to break 80 for a rally to really stand for something. 80 was pretty good support from 1991-2005 until it broke in 2007. I hate to sound like a chartist, but the currency markets are complicated like that. It's been about the dollar all along.
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Rather than wait and see what the dollar's going to do, I think it's prudent to reduce exposure now. If the rally in equities continues like some of us expect it isn't going to hurt our profit all that much even if the dollar resumes its trend downward. Of course it may just meander in a range for awhile too.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/10/markets/dollar.reut/index.htm?postversion=2009081006
 
That was a good post from IYB - rather confirms the Stickan post from awhile back. Do you remember what page that was on - I'd like to review it one more time. While searching I did find a post I left on page 59 - post #700. I also like the fact that Don uses the McClellans.
 
Not that I'm watching it or anything, :rolleyes: but GS is down another 1.6% right now.

Turn the screws boys, turn the screws. :laugh:
 
RonUSPSretired said:
How much of a reduction are you suggesting?
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I went to 80/20 SI. But please don't say I'm suggesting it. I can only speak for myself and why I'm doing what I'm doing. ;)

If my moves aren't satisficatory later on, please blame Tom. :D

But I'll accept all the accolades if I do well. :laugh:
 
coolhand said:
I went to 80/20 SI. But please don't say I'm suggesting it. I can only speak for myself and why I'm doing what I'm doing. ;)

If my moves aren't satisficatory later on, please blame Tom. :D

But I'll accept all the accolades if I do well. :laugh:
Click to expand...

Oky Doky, will do. I'm sure Tom's got broad shoulders:cheesy:
 
OMB the WH and the EOVP are approving the ARRA releases at a much more rapid rate the past few days. I know in the case of one agency, 20% of the allocated ARRA funds are going to obligated soon... as to when they get disbursed on the street is another story, but related to TSP funds, its getting safe to assume that the stimulus is going to hit and most likely surprise in the next GDP report.
 
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