coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

Yes, the momentum is building. I'm seeing more and more headlines that a new bull has started. Here's one from this morning that I found especially interesting.

GS issued this declaration the same day their stock starting selling off.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/06/markets/Goldman_bull_market.reut/index.htm?postversion=2009080612

Come on in! The water is fine!

Poolman mentioned that he was looking for an exit. So am I. Unless something dramatic happens. I think a new high is coming before the real selling begins, and if that's the case I may be selling into it. But it may not be that simple. The FOMC announcement may be a catalyst, but that won't get posted until after our deadline.

Just musing here. But something just doesn't feel right. :suspicious:

 

[coolhand]

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/08/us-consumer-credit-shows-steepest.html

 

[WorkFE]

Morning CH,
I too have been seeing alot of optimism. Not sure that it matters. If we are going to go through a few years of less spending and more savings then it is possible we are not to far away from the top of this market. Spending spurs the market, savings well that depends on the investment vehicle. I do like the momentum that I read about it just does not seem to be carrying over when the Markets are open. I am not a doomsdayer but those that are reporting all this optimism, I'd like to know where their money is at right now.
I don't buy into AMERICA living beyond its means theory.
First the whole world benefitted from that living. Lets see how they bash us when we stick it in the matress the next few years. Anyway thanks for the great info.

 

[airlift]

Perhaps the econ numbers will provide the positive sentiment that could fuel an exit rally. Tomorrow the FED...But in my opinion there still is significant weakness in the economy to disuade the FED from derailing the recovery. Just my opinion...

 

[coolhand]

Too early to know, but the SS may have gone to a sell today. The only indicator I'm really interested in right now is $BPCOMPQ. That's the one that may still be on a buy, but I won't know till after 6pm.

I'm not surprised by the weakness, it was due. I would also not be surprised with at least one more shot higher. But if the SS is on a sell I won't stick around too long to test that hunch.

No decisions till later tonight.

GS ended down another 0.71%.

 

[JTH]

GS ended down another 0.71%.

Great highlight on the GS, it's never on my "watch" list but that doesn't mean I shouldn't know what it's doing.

 

[poolman]

Too early to know, but the SS may have gone to a sell today. The only indicator I'm really interested in right now is $BPCOMPQ. That's the one that may still be on a buy, but I won't know till after 6pm.

I'm not surprised by the weakness, it was due. I would also not be surprised with at least one more shot higher. But if the SS is on a sell I won't stick around too long to test that hunch.

No decisions till later tonight.

GS ended down another 0.71%.

Unfortunately the only guidance we will get by The noon IFT cutoff tomorrow is where the market is at then. The pressure is on now. FOMC Statement won't be out until 2:15 est.

I feel the sentiment is changing. I need to see what the SS is saying.

Sentiment can change overnight.

 

[amoeba]

Unfortunately the only guidance we will get by The noon IFT cutoff tomorrow is where the market is at then. The pressure is on now. FOMC Statement won't be out until 2:15 est.

I feel the sentiment is changing. I need to see what the SS is saying.

Sentiment can change overnight.

I bailed for a few days - - - while this sorts itself out. 13% in 3 weeks is a bit much, and I'm not sure what will be made of the FOMC and retail sales later on (which I think will be mucked up to irrelevance by the various gov stimuli factors).

The last 1/2 hour of the major indices was disappointing. Any predictions on tomorrow's open? Gap up or down?

 

[coolhand]

We got a SS sell signal today, and I posted it in my blog. However, IYB is not interpreting it as a sell. Take your pick. This is one tricky market folks. I may split my allocation 50/50 after all.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=109851

 

[coolhand]

This is tough. I've got a SS sell signal after a big run-up in the market. Nothing unusual about that by itself, but the system's developer is interpreting it as a false signal. I respect that. He's got many more years behind him doing this than I do.

But, we've got plenty of media coverage calling this a new confirmed bull market. This includes some notable professionals. I'd like to think they give this sentiment more time to work its magic, but that's just a crook's perspective.

Then we've got ugly fundamentals. Yes, the market looks forward, but we've not seen this much federal debt ever. Not even close. The public is in crises, the politicians are throwing mud (that's not new, I know), we can try to cite the last unemployment numbers as "proof" things are getting better, but that's folly. It's not a trend at this point and numbers can shift in the short term for any variety of factors.

Of course, I can go on.

Yes this market may decide to continue higher, but I'm really only concerned about the next 2 and half weeks until I get two fresh IFTs. I can be bullish later if need be.

I think we may very well have a push to new highs soon, but the real selling may kick in some time after that. Next week is OPEX so anything can happen between now and then.

Any thoughts?

 

[Bullitt]

I'm with IYB on this one. We went so far so fast, we knew it wouldn't take much to drop some of the momentum. Bail out and 'book your profits' and hope to get lucky enough to get back in, or hold on for the next wave. Still plenty out there who are looking to get on board, and I'm talking mutual funds and institutions who still need to re-allocate capital to equities. This rally ain't finished.

Of course, most selling won't happen until we drop another 40 points in the SPX as the weak hands unload to the strong hands. That's just the way it works. I'm staying.

 

[turbo23dog]

I''m leaning toward sticking it out a bit longer. I'd like to see if we'll recover at least some of today's fairly good drop. Also, with only one "free" IFT left for the month, I don't feel like commiting to being locked into G for the next two weeks at this point. Nontheless, I'll be watching things very closley tomorrow at 11:30 - 12:00 pm.

 

[poolman]

I will be thinking about this tonight. I don't want to do anything Rash. I don't want to be stuck in G either but I need to lay back, Relax and think about everything. I will answer this in the morning.

 

[coolhand]

I will be thinking about this tonight. I don't want to do anything Rash. I don't want to be stuck in G either but I need to lay back, Relax and think about everything. I will answer this in the morning.

Good idea. There's a lot going on. Looking forward to your opinion tomorrow.

 

[amoeba]

Alot going on indeed - Asian indices slumping.......we shall see how the next few sessions go.

 

[airlift]

If this SS Sell signal is non-actionable (as per IYB), don't you think that there should be a bounce and that we will have a better exit point at some time going into Options Expiration week?

 

[coolhand]

If this SS Sell signal is non-actionable (as per IYB), don't you think that there should be a bounce and that we will have a better exit point at some time going into Options Expiration week?

Yes. There is a reasonable expectation of that happening.

What makes this decision difficult is the SS sell signal. The market itself has not really done anything ugly. Yet. And there's good arguments that it won't. The last sell signal wasn't worth that much downside. And we had more than one sell signal too.

Yes, I talked about that in my blog. The underlying bid in this market has been remarkably strong.

Let's see what Poolman thinks later this morning. I'm still up in the air over exactly what I'll do...or not do.

 

[CountryBoy]

Thanks for the update on the blog about the SS sell signal, very much appreciated.

CB

 

[coolhand]

Thanks for the update on the blog about the SS sell signal, very much appreciated.

CB

YW CB.

I should also add that GS closed a little over 159 yesterday. If it gets below about 157 there's no support until about 140. That's about a 12.5% drop.

If that happens, the market will probably be dropping with it.

 

[coolhand]

Excellent currency post re: Yen. Semi is about as savvy as they come.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=109857