coolhand's Account Talk

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coolhand said:
YW CB.

I should also add that GS closed a little over 159 yesterday. If it gets below about 157 there's no support until about 140. That's about a 12.5% drop.

If that happens, the market will probably be dropping with it.
Click to expand...

Yeah CH,

I've been watching GS after your's and others comments.

CB
 
Some statistics to consider. As of this morning:

12% of the top 50 folks on the tracker are all G fund.
6% of the top 50 folks on the tracker have F fund exposure.
Almost no one is in an L fund.

70% are maintaining a 100% stock exposure.

The top 50 have a gain this year of at least 13.31%.

Does this help? :D
 
After a lot of thinking and analyzing thus far I have decided to stay in the markets. We have had two down days this week and I do realize sentiment has shifted from being very positive to neutral to down some. This is how fast sentiment can change and I want a chance to see if this turns positive again this week.

I did see the sell signal Coolhand posted with the SS. I also believe that this statement that CH posted "Moreover, someone else said that this movement of the SS to the sell side of the equation is likely associated with relieving the short term overbought situation rather than the start of an extended downtrendtend" is probably the case more than not.

Personally I do not want to make an IFT before the announcement of the FOMC. Hindsight is For sight and we will know if this was smart or not so smart after the fact. We have a lot of information still to come out this week and I know that the spin is usually "Not as bad as it could have been or Not as bad as expected etc...." That is usually good for the markets.

We still have 14 trading days left in August including today. I will take this one day at a time and could change my mind in a second.
 
Is this plausible or reading too much into the tea leaves? Seems like traders/institutional sized money is getting out of the international/$ hedge game in the short term... not just where the US$ is in the short term, but also in anticipation that todays 10 year bond sale may have lots of willing buyers (lots of special visits to China by the higher-ups) -- and the Fed is going to pump that in its statement. The contrarian in me thinks this is where the big boys reallocate and pull a quick whipsaw.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN1210206520090812
 
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coolhand said:
Some statistics to consider. As of this morning:

12% of the top 50 folks on the tracker are all G fund.
6% of the top 50 folks on the tracker have F fund exposure.
Almost no one is in an L fund.

70% are maintaining a 100% stock exposure.

The top 50 have a gain this year of at least 13.31%.

Does this help? :D
Click to expand...

Those statistics are a major change since I did something similar in mid-May...

Back then, almost a third of the folks in the top quintile were in the G, less than a quarter in both the C and S Funds.

May was one of the months where folks should have been in equities :sick:
 
Boghie said:
Those statistics are a major change since I did something similar in mid-May...

Back then, almost a third of the folks in the top quintile were in the G, less than a quarter in both the C and S Funds.

May was one of the months where folks should have been in equities :sick:
Click to expand...

I'm going to try and put together some kind of statistical reference using the tracker. That can get time consuming, but once I get my arms around how to do it and create the intitial spreadsheet it should get easier.
 
fedgolfer said:
Is this plausible or reading too much into the tea leaves? Seems like traders/institutional sized money is getting out of the international/$ hedge game in the short term... not just where the US$ is in the short term, but also in anticipation that todays 10 year bond sale may have lots of willing buyers (lots of special visits to China by the higher-ups) -- and the Fed is going to pump that in its statement. The contrarian in me thinks this is where the big boys reallocate and pull a quick whipsaw.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN1210206520090812
Click to expand...

Good observation and plausible too.
 
Yay... I will be flying all day tomorrow from the west coast to the east coast. Here's hoping for an up day for the next few days....:blink:
 
Going to be interesting to see what happens to the shorts after the FOMC announcement. After todays run-up you'd expect some selling, but I wouldn't be surprised if we end higher at the close.
 
Let's hope we get a good FOMC Statement guys and gals.

This will seal the asphalt road we on riding on if good and be good for sentiment. :)
 
If the futures hold, it looks like we're going to quickly tag another new yearly high in the S&P. Retail sales numbers to be released this morning along with some other data.
 
Here's a chart I'm working on to capture some data of the tracker. It's a work in progress, and I'm soliciting opinions to make it as meaningful as possible. I am still working on a way to correlate this with stock market performance.

View attachment 6657

I will also be looking for a different program to display this data. This one was done in ppt.
 
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