coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

Long term, it seems there's a US$ carry trade going on. But, short term at least, too many seem to have hopped on the 'tank the dollar trade'. And like most investing/trading plays, if its way overcrowded then the trend is usually reversed... question is, how long?

I won't wait too, too long to find out. Early next week I'll decide whether to diversify away from the I fund or not. It's just a little to soon to make that call.

 

[coolhand]

Interestingly enough, crude ended at the LOD. Now the strength in the dollar makes a little more sense. Still not convinced of a turn yet though, but it may be prudent to shift to a more even balance between S and I as I'm currently 25/75 SI.

You would think with such strong economic numbers like we saw today, the demand for crude would be much stronger.

Let's see how Monday shapes up.

 

[coolhand]

I've posted a new blog. You'll want to check it out.

 

[poolman]

I've posted a new blog. You'll want to check it out.

Hi Coolhand,

I have read your blog and am concerned about GS being down on an up day Friday myself. I actually read your blog yesterday. I am currently doing homework on this myself. I will respond in your blog either today or tomorrow.

I have also posted a comment to D7 in his latest video. You can read it yourself. Let's see if he has an oppionion on this also. Right here is the vid and my comment. Double click the vid to bring it up through YouTube to see comment.

Thanks for everything CH.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=reVkNd2PJyM

 

[Bullitt]

Long term, it seems there's a US$ carry trade going on. But, short term at least, too many seem to have hopped on the 'tank the dollar trade'. And like most investing/trading plays, if its way overcrowded then the trend is usually reversed... question is, how long?

No doubt. Look at the 30 year which is arguably in a new bear market. It hasn't been a straight drop down.

I wonder, all that money we sent overseas that Ben doesn't really know what happened to- How much of that money is coming back home in the form of Treasury purchases?

 

[Blindman]

Coolhand and others,
Appreciate the info and the Welcome wagon!! I have been watching and reading daily commentarys on this sight for several years, but just now trying to get into the message boards and learn how it works. Alot of stuff to dig through on this sight. I'll keep a watchful eye and like you said Poolman, I enjoy reading and learning about the markets. A couple of years ago I couldn't have told you the difference between Bull or a Bear, but after reading some of your blogs, I have so much more to learn..... Over and out from the Heartland - Oklahoma - Thanks again!
Blindman

 

[coolhand]

Okay, can someone help me understand what's being said here? :blink:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/quant-puke

 

[airlift]

I don't understand if those people are putting out a joke or if it is a serious website.

 

[coolhand]

I don't understand if those people are putting out a joke or if it is a serious website.

It's a serious website, but it's not for casual investors/traders.

 

[poolman]

Okay, can someone help me understand what's being said here? :blink:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/quant-puke

I saved it. I actually found a couple of interesting things while surfing the site. Seems like many members talk a whole different language though. :laugh:

 

[coolhand]

I saved it. I actually found a couple of interesting things while surfing the site. Seems like many members talk a whole different language though. :laugh:

Yeah, they do. Here's an explanation of what sigma is. I think they are talking about volume in the market and how it relates to the recent barring of flash trading. It may not mean a whole lot in the big scheme of things, but I'm still sorting it out.

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20080630125532AAzc89o

 

[coolhand]

Okay, I thought the stock or fund they were referring to was somehow related to the dollar, but I don't think that's the case. It appears to be a fund with a complex structure.

http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=MUTF:HSKAX

 

[poolman]

Coolhand,

The relevance of Goldman Sachs having a bad day on Friday when the overall stock market was up made me do some thinking over the last day or so. I wanted to check on other cornerstone stocks to see how they did. Overall I am still chalking up GS to having a bad day within its trading range. But I will keep an eye on these stocks and others if we find them pertinent.

Friday's Trading 08/07/09

GS -3.10 (-1.86)
AAPL +1.60 (+ .98)
RIMM - .19 (- .25)
GOOG +6.74 (+1.50)
BIDU +5.76 (+1.69)

GS being the Big Boy Though.

 

[coolhand]

Coolhand and others,
Appreciate the info and the Welcome wagon!! I have been watching and reading daily commentarys on this sight for several years, but just now trying to get into the message boards and learn how it works. Alot of stuff to dig through on this sight. I'll keep a watchful eye and like you said Poolman, I enjoy reading and learning about the markets. A couple of years ago I couldn't have told you the difference between Bull or a Bear, but after reading some of your blogs, I have so much more to learn..... Over and out from the Heartland - Oklahoma - Thanks again!
Blindman

Happy to help you out Blindman! Stop by any time.

 

[coolhand]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/four-things-that-will-indicate-rally-may-be-over-2009-08-07

 

[Bullitt]

I don't understand half the Durden posts from the Bloomberg Terminal, but it's probably something he considers fraudulent that he's monitoring

As for GS- Good observation, but no worries. Look at the weekly chart, it's forming a nice 3 week base with a pivot point of 165-170. If anything, I'm sure the boys found a way to dump it at the open in order to get 'em cheaper. GS looks to have less distribution days than the overall market in the past 15 or so trading days and GS is a well known market leader.

I won't be surprised however, to see that some insider sold shares on Friday.

 

[coolhand]

I don't understand half the Durden posts from the Bloomberg Terminal, but it's probably something he considers fraudulent that he's monitoring

As for GS- Good observation, but no worries. Look at the weekly chart, it's forming a nice 3 week base with a pivot point of 165-170. If anything, I'm sure the boys found a way to dump it at the open in order to get 'em cheaper. GS looks to have less distribution days than the overall market in the past 15 or so trading days and GS is a well known market leader.

I won't be surprised however, to see that some insider sold shares on Friday.

I wouldn't have thought anything of it, except in the context of the Seven Sentinels. By itself, GS was not much of an issue. But trying to interpret a possible SS sell signal in the near future may require additional backup support data.

 

[Birchtree]

I think it was just money rotating out to other places. There is so much value available. And the margin players are still on the sidelines from what I can tell - margin debt has not been expanding not speaking for myself.

 

[coolhand]

I think it was just money rotating out to other places. There is so much value available. And the margin players are still on the sidelines from what I can tell - margin debt has not been expanding not speaking for myself.

That's a good point BT. That's why I'm seeing so many neutral sentiment readings and traders with flat positions.

 

[coolhand]

It took 3 weeks, but Don has finally confirmed the last SS buy signal as valid. He goes into detail why he feels this is a new bull market too. Be aware that some of the charts are showing July and not August so they aren't current. He's using them to explain the buy signal.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=109772