coolhand's Account Talk

The bears just won't go away. Today's action did some technical damage too.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

We can see that price on the DWCPF has closed below the 200 dma. Price on the S&P 500 held above its respective 200 dma. Momentum is falling. Breadth fell today as well. My intermediate term system, while still positive, is now under attack.

So, things have not gotten a bit more dicey, but still not overly so. The options are a bit bullish this evening. TRIN is bullish. we're oversold in the short term. The indicators are suggesting that we could see a turn back up on Thursday (or at least a bounce), but we might get additional selling first. In any event, I remain bullish overall. If price on the S&P 500 closes under the 200 dma, we might have more pain coming. But I still don't anticipate anything too serious at this point.
 
The battle above the 200 dma continued today and the bulls continue to successfully defend it.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

No change to the charts (for the most part). Breadth remains bullish and resilient. The options are neutral (again).

The market is stuck in tight trading range for now. It should eventually breakout to the upside. A test of the 200 dma would be okay.
 
The bulls were not able to take advantage of Friday's rally to extend gains, though they tried early in the trading session.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

But the bears mounted a counter attack and took stocks lower, even coming close to testing the 200 dma on both charts before the bulls stepped back in and kept price above that key level.

This evening, the options are neutral. My intermediate term system remains positive, but weakening (not a concern at this time). Breadth remains positive and is not losing much ground despite the selling pressure.

I believe a base is now being built to launch another move to the upside.
 
Last week, the market played out with a downward bias, till Friday. On Friday, the bulls pushed back and price was driven back to near its previous top. The C and S funds closed with moderate gains as result.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Now, we head into a new week. But has anything really changed? Not that I can discern. The bullish bias appears to be intact as price has now remained about the 200 dma for more than 2 weeks. I believe we are and will continue to trend higher.

The options are neutral to modestly bullish. NAAIM is bullish. TSP Talk is bullish.

Breadth is bullish, my intermediate term system remains bullish. I could go on, but you get the picture. The bulls have control. I'm looking for more of the same in the weeks ahead; barring some kind of event (which is always possible).
 
The bears managed to take price a bit lower today, but technical damage remains tame.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Price remains above the 200 dma on both charts. I really seems like price is simply consolidating gains. Momentum is weakening, but only somewhat modestly. The 50 dma is rising, if you haven't noticed. In the weeks ahead I anticipate a positive cross of the 200 dma.

The options are neutral this evening. NAAIM didn't change much and remains in the bullish camp. Breadth dipped, but remains bullish.

Aside from short-term weakness, I continue to look for a resumption of upside movement to price once consolidation is complete.
 
The battle between the bulls and bears continued today, generally ending in a draw.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

The longer price dances around above the 200 dma, the harder it may be for the bears to get any serious traction. The charts look bullish, though price is moving sideways at the moment.

The options are neutral. Breadth remains bullish as does my intermediate term system.

Not much to add this evening. Thursday may be more of the same. NAAIM reports in the morning.
 
We got a modest pullback today. The market could use a bigger one to reset the bullish momentum, but whether we get one in the short term remains to be seen. Certainly price is hitting resistance and many of my indicators are stretched. With NAAIM bullish, I am thinking any downside will still likely be limited, though that does not mean we can't have more than a modest, short-term dip. Beyond the short-term (for which I am neutral), I am leaning bullish.
 
The bulls tried to make another run to the upside to start the new week, but the sellers capped the rally; holding it to modest gains.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

No real change to the charts. There bullish disposition remains in place.

The OEX is bearish for Tuesday. The CBOE is neutral to modestly bearish. Breadth was flat on the day, but of course remains bullish.

Steady as she goes for the bulls. We might see some selling on Tuesday given the bearish options, but that's not much for the bears to hang their hat on given breadth.
 
So, price has now been above (and rising) the 200 dma on both charts for several days. That key average may now be support (should it get tested). But more importantly, we are seeing more evidence that this bull is still very much alive.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

The charts remain bullish, albeit extended. But that's not too much of problem given it was extended to the downside about 2 months ago. Still, RSI is overbought (for what that's worth).

The options are neutral for Monday. NAAIM remains bullish. TSP Talk is decidedly bullish, which used to be bearish a long time ago so I don't key on it as much as I once did. NAAIM is my primary sentiment indicator these days.

Breadth remains very bullish and still rising.

So, my perspective remains bullish. In fact, I am not seeing any reason to fear a bear market like I did prior to this rally. We got a minor bear market late last year and the bulls stomped it after just a few months.
 
The market dished out moderate losses today, but it did nothing to alter its bullish disposition.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

We can see that price did not test the 200dma. It isn't far from it, so maybe we'll get a test soon.

The options are neutral this evening. NAAIM came in a bit less bullish, but not nearly enough to take it out of its overall bullish stance. My intermediate term system remains positive. Breadth remains very positive.

Really, the bulls continue to own the market right now. We're overbought and the charts and indicators are extended, but I would not bet against the bulls while NAAIM remains solidly bullish.
 
Upward bias continued today.

DWCPF.png
S&P 500.png

The options are leaning a bit bearish this evening. Breadth remains quite bullish. I have no change to my current perspective, which is bullish.
 
I got the upside breakout I was looking for on Friday. Price has now closed about the 200 dma on both charts. I said that we might see a reversal soon after the break, but the operative word is "might".

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Looking at the charts, we see a largely continuous rally since shortly after Christmas, with modest dips along the way. Momentum is positive, but weakening (that's not necessarily bearish). RSI is about overbought, but that's not necessarily bearish either; only a potential warning. Breadth is quite bullish and that a huge plus in the bull's favor. NAAIM is bullish (smart money). The options are neutral. TSP Talk is neutral (we're bullish overall).

I have no reason to expect any serious selling pressure given the current technical or sentiment picture. For now, I am remaining bullish.
 
The battle at the 200 dma continued on Thursday.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Can the bulls push price over the top? My expectation is that they will; even if only temporarily.

This evening, the options are neutral. NAAIM was relatively unchanged, which supports the bulls. TRINQ is bearish. Breadth is bullish.

I think the battle will probably continue on Friday, but eventually I expect price to resolve higher before a possible reversal.
 
userque said:
More correctly, we started falling due to the retail numbers. When it crossed into red is not really the issue.
Click to expand...


Just saw that. That's the difference of using finviz news vice cnbc. The retail news didn't hit finviz till 0914. Then again at 0930. Now to decide if I bail with a small loss or wait it out to see if support holds again or not. grrrrrrrrrrr:cool:
 
More correctly, we started falling due to the retail numbers. When it crossed into red is not really the issue.
 
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