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coolhand's Account Talk
- Thread starter coolhand
- Start date
coolhand
Well-known member
The volatility remained today, though the moves up and down weren't deep.
We can see that price settled near the neutral line by the close. Interestingly, price on the DWCPF tested the 50 dma and it held so far.
The OEX is modestly bullish this evening. The CBOE is neutral. Breadth remains bullish, but my intermediate term system flipped negative.
I've got signals all over the place, but breadth and NAAIM are in the bull camp and that's a lot for the bears to counter. I remain bullish, but do acknowledge that we may not have seen the bottom yet.
We can see that price settled near the neutral line by the close. Interestingly, price on the DWCPF tested the 50 dma and it held so far.
The OEX is modestly bullish this evening. The CBOE is neutral. Breadth remains bullish, but my intermediate term system flipped negative.
I've got signals all over the place, but breadth and NAAIM are in the bull camp and that's a lot for the bears to counter. I remain bullish, but do acknowledge that we may not have seen the bottom yet.
coolhand
Well-known member
So, on Thursday the S&P 500 closed at a fresh high, but the very next day the bears stepped back in and drove price lower; wiping out that week's gains. The S fund in particular got hammered. I highly suspect the recent rise in volatility was driven by the release of the Mueller report. And I would not be surprised if that volatility continues for the moment.
We can see both charts show strength and momentum turning back down. The S&P 500 remains in a bullish configuration for the time being, but the DWCPF saw its 200 dma broken and the 50 dma now being tested. It's looking shaky.
Looking at my intermediate term system I note that only one signal is keeping that system positive. Any more weakness could potentially flip it negative. Breadth remains positive, but turned down on Friday.
The options are looking a bit bearish for Monday. TSP Talk is bulled up for the 2nd week in a row. While that's bearish, NAAIM was bullish too; and that's smart money.
It's difficult to discern from the current indicators how the market resolves from here. The short term is bearish, but beyond a few days or so I think the bulls will prevail. I am anticipating that volatility may remain with us this week. I remain bullish overall.
We can see both charts show strength and momentum turning back down. The S&P 500 remains in a bullish configuration for the time being, but the DWCPF saw its 200 dma broken and the 50 dma now being tested. It's looking shaky.
Looking at my intermediate term system I note that only one signal is keeping that system positive. Any more weakness could potentially flip it negative. Breadth remains positive, but turned down on Friday.
The options are looking a bit bearish for Monday. TSP Talk is bulled up for the 2nd week in a row. While that's bearish, NAAIM was bullish too; and that's smart money.
It's difficult to discern from the current indicators how the market resolves from here. The short term is bearish, but beyond a few days or so I think the bulls will prevail. I am anticipating that volatility may remain with us this week. I remain bullish overall.
No. It doesn't look like BT is interested in posting anymore.
Too bad! Wonder if he ever bought the dream retirement house in Cashiers, NC?
coolhand
Well-known member
As always, much appreciated!
coolhand
Well-known member
Yesterday, I said that the trend is up until it's not and we got confirmation today that the trend remains up.
I would like to see the DWCPF play some catch-up with the S&P 500, but the S&P at least gives us some solid evidence of who remains in control (the bulls).
My intermediate term system remains positive and breadth remains decidedly bullish. The OEX was very bearish yesterday and I said that I questioned whether I could trust the signal give how much it had spiked. Obviously, it couldn't be trusted. Today, the OEX is on the bullish side, while the CBOE is a bit bearish. NAAIM came in near unchanged, which keeps it bullish.
I don't see any reason to look for a meaningful top at this point. The trend looks to be intact (up).
I would like to see the DWCPF play some catch-up with the S&P 500, but the S&P at least gives us some solid evidence of who remains in control (the bulls).
My intermediate term system remains positive and breadth remains decidedly bullish. The OEX was very bearish yesterday and I said that I questioned whether I could trust the signal give how much it had spiked. Obviously, it couldn't be trusted. Today, the OEX is on the bullish side, while the CBOE is a bit bearish. NAAIM came in near unchanged, which keeps it bullish.
I don't see any reason to look for a meaningful top at this point. The trend looks to be intact (up).
coolhand
Well-known member
We got a roller coaster ride for Wednesday, largely as a result of the Fed announcement of not hiking rates.
Yes, price is testing the 200 dma on the DWCPF, but the S&P 500 looks like it may be putting in a bull flag and well away from its 200 dma. The 50 dma on both charts is closing in on a positive cross of the 200 dma. But momentum is turning down a bit, so maybe the battle continues for control of price.
The OEX is very high this evening, which is bearish. I'm not sure I trust it, given how high it is. The CBOE is neutral. NAAIM reports tomorrow.
I don't think the volatility is over, but I just can't get overly bearish on the readings as they currently stand. That doesn't mean we can't get more selling, but I just don't see enough evidence of a potential bigger move in that direction. The trend is up until it's not.
Yes, price is testing the 200 dma on the DWCPF, but the S&P 500 looks like it may be putting in a bull flag and well away from its 200 dma. The 50 dma on both charts is closing in on a positive cross of the 200 dma. But momentum is turning down a bit, so maybe the battle continues for control of price.
The OEX is very high this evening, which is bearish. I'm not sure I trust it, given how high it is. The CBOE is neutral. NAAIM reports tomorrow.
I don't think the volatility is over, but I just can't get overly bearish on the readings as they currently stand. That doesn't mean we can't get more selling, but I just don't see enough evidence of a potential bigger move in that direction. The trend is up until it's not.
coolhand
Well-known member
It was an up/down kind of day, but the bulls prevailed once again.
Breadth remains bullish. My intermediate term system continues to suggest more gains are coming. The OEX is neutral, while the CBOE is somewhat bearish for Tuesday. I see no reason to not continue looking higher.
Breadth remains bullish. My intermediate term system continues to suggest more gains are coming. The OEX is neutral, while the CBOE is somewhat bearish for Tuesday. I see no reason to not continue looking higher.
coolhand
Well-known member
All 3 TSP stock funds posted big gains last week. In fact, the S&P 500 is breaking out to the upside. More to come?
Price on the S&P is incrementally moving higher. There does appear to be some resistance, but the bears are not in the drivers seat. The one fly in the ointment is that price on the DWCPF is tracking sideways in the short term. I would be more bullish if it would follow the S&P 500 higher. My bet is that it will eventually do that.
Breadth remains positive. My intermediate term system, while remaining positive for weeks now, is hinting at improving its bullish disposition as some of the indicators appear to be turning off of their bottoms.
For Monday, the OEX remains bearish, while the CBOE is neutral. NAAIM remains in a bullish configuration and that's key for those that like to be long. TSP Talk got bulled up and that's bearish.
Overall, the indicators are mixed, but the bulls have control. My expectation is more upside to come, but it probably won't be without some attempts by the bears to counter the bull's party.
Price on the S&P is incrementally moving higher. There does appear to be some resistance, but the bears are not in the drivers seat. The one fly in the ointment is that price on the DWCPF is tracking sideways in the short term. I would be more bullish if it would follow the S&P 500 higher. My bet is that it will eventually do that.
Breadth remains positive. My intermediate term system, while remaining positive for weeks now, is hinting at improving its bullish disposition as some of the indicators appear to be turning off of their bottoms.
For Monday, the OEX remains bearish, while the CBOE is neutral. NAAIM remains in a bullish configuration and that's key for those that like to be long. TSP Talk got bulled up and that's bearish.
Overall, the indicators are mixed, but the bulls have control. My expectation is more upside to come, but it probably won't be without some attempts by the bears to counter the bull's party.
coolhand
Well-known member
After posting a fresh high on Wednesday, the S&P 500 pulled back on Thursday.
So did the DWCPF, but neither fell much and both remain above their respective 200 dma's. Momentum has paused, but not reversed. Breadth is still in a positive condition.
Looking at sentiment, the OEX is bearish for Friday, while the CBOE is neutral. NAAIM was relatively unchanged, which keeps it in the bullish camp.
My expectation has not changed. I am looking for an upside breakout; probably over the next week or so.
So did the DWCPF, but neither fell much and both remain above their respective 200 dma's. Momentum has paused, but not reversed. Breadth is still in a positive condition.
Looking at sentiment, the OEX is bearish for Friday, while the CBOE is neutral. NAAIM was relatively unchanged, which keeps it in the bullish camp.
My expectation has not changed. I am looking for an upside breakout; probably over the next week or so.
coolhand
Well-known member
I was expecting choppy action today, but we really got more upside than anything, though the afternoon session saw the market give up some of its gains.
I was looking for a test of the previous high on the S&P 500 and we didn't have to wait long for it as price hit both a fresh intraday high and a closing high.
And I don't think it's a fake out either. Breadth is looking like it may just be getting ready for another ramp job (to the upside) as it's moved smartly higher this week (aside from Tuesday's back and forth action).
The OEX is neutral. The CBOE is bearish. Momentum is decidedly bullish.
I have this suspicion that the bulls may press their advantage over the days ahead. I'd hold long positions.
I was looking for a test of the previous high on the S&P 500 and we didn't have to wait long for it as price hit both a fresh intraday high and a closing high.
And I don't think it's a fake out either. Breadth is looking like it may just be getting ready for another ramp job (to the upside) as it's moved smartly higher this week (aside from Tuesday's back and forth action).
The OEX is neutral. The CBOE is bearish. Momentum is decidedly bullish.
I have this suspicion that the bulls may press their advantage over the days ahead. I'd hold long positions.
coolhand
Well-known member
It was a choppy day, but the bulls maintained control of price.
Momentum leveled off a bit, but is still positive. Price remains well above the 200 dma on the S&P 500, but is dancing with that same average on the DWCPF. We need to see that average take more control.
The options show the OEX leaning bullish for Wednesday, while the CBOE is neutral. TRINQ is bearish this evening (1-day indicator).
I'm cautiously optimistic that price will test the previous high on the S&P 500. If it can do that, we'll see how much resistance it offers. I'm looking for more choppy action on Wednesday.
Momentum leveled off a bit, but is still positive. Price remains well above the 200 dma on the S&P 500, but is dancing with that same average on the DWCPF. We need to see that average take more control.
The options show the OEX leaning bullish for Wednesday, while the CBOE is neutral. TRINQ is bearish this evening (1-day indicator).
I'm cautiously optimistic that price will test the previous high on the S&P 500. If it can do that, we'll see how much resistance it offers. I'm looking for more choppy action on Wednesday.
coolhand
Well-known member
We got the bounce. But it felt more like a turn. Does it have legs?
A significant portion of recent losses were retraced Monday. Momentum turned back up. Breadth did too. Price is now back above the 200 dma on the S&P 500 and closed right at that key average on the DWCPF.
The options are neutral this evening. I note that TRIN and TRINQ are leaning bearish for Tuesday, but any selling may not amount to a whole lot. Still, we need to see some follow through from the bulls now. I think we'll get it even if things get a bit choppy.
A significant portion of recent losses were retraced Monday. Momentum turned back up. Breadth did too. Price is now back above the 200 dma on the S&P 500 and closed right at that key average on the DWCPF.
The options are neutral this evening. I note that TRIN and TRINQ are leaning bearish for Tuesday, but any selling may not amount to a whole lot. Still, we need to see some follow through from the bulls now. I think we'll get it even if things get a bit choppy.
coolhand
Well-known member
Last week was a big win for the bears as all 3 TSP stock funds got hammered.
Both charts clearly show that price in now below the 200 dma. RSI has fallen below the neutral line. Momentum is decidedly to the downside. Note though, that the rising 50 dma is not too far below and may provide support should the selling continue.
My intermediate term system is still positive, but not far from flipping negative. Sentiment shows the options leaning a bit bullish for Monday. NAAIM is leaning bullish as well, but have tempered their long positions. TSP Talk got more bearish, but overall is neutral.
Breadth is neutral, but still looking weak in the short term.
Overall, the indicators are leaning bearish, but we've seen enough selling to look for at least a bounce. The 50 dma should be watched for support.
There are some geopolitical events taking place (power outage in Venezuela, etc.) that may be pointing to a significant future event and this could be why we are seeing some selling to this point. While that may sound bearish, it may actually be bullish. I am leaning toward the bullish outcome (for what it's worth). Aside from that this aspect of my worldview, the technical and sentiment pictures support a rally in the days ahead.
Both charts clearly show that price in now below the 200 dma. RSI has fallen below the neutral line. Momentum is decidedly to the downside. Note though, that the rising 50 dma is not too far below and may provide support should the selling continue.
My intermediate term system is still positive, but not far from flipping negative. Sentiment shows the options leaning a bit bullish for Monday. NAAIM is leaning bullish as well, but have tempered their long positions. TSP Talk got more bearish, but overall is neutral.
Breadth is neutral, but still looking weak in the short term.
Overall, the indicators are leaning bearish, but we've seen enough selling to look for at least a bounce. The 50 dma should be watched for support.
There are some geopolitical events taking place (power outage in Venezuela, etc.) that may be pointing to a significant future event and this could be why we are seeing some selling to this point. While that may sound bearish, it may actually be bullish. I am leaning toward the bullish outcome (for what it's worth). Aside from that this aspect of my worldview, the technical and sentiment pictures support a rally in the days ahead.
coolhand
Well-known member
The bears started early and the bulls never really countered as price took another pretty good pounding. I am not surprised by the additional selling, but the indicators suggested we should have seen some upside too.
So, now price is testing the 200 dma on the S&P 500. RSI has fallen off pretty good, which significantly reduces the overbought readings we had a few trading days ago. Momentum is still falling and has not turned yet. Breadth is neutral after being bullish for about 2 months.
The OEX (smart money) has not been bearish and this evening it's still not bearish. The CBOE is bullish. NAAIM showed these money managers shifting a bit more bearish, but not enough to look for serious downside action. Therefore, this selling pressure is likely just an opportunity for the bulls to reload. But that doesn't mean the selling is over.
Since we didn't get much upside today, I'm thinking the chances of a bounce are higher now for Friday.
So, now price is testing the 200 dma on the S&P 500. RSI has fallen off pretty good, which significantly reduces the overbought readings we had a few trading days ago. Momentum is still falling and has not turned yet. Breadth is neutral after being bullish for about 2 months.
The OEX (smart money) has not been bearish and this evening it's still not bearish. The CBOE is bullish. NAAIM showed these money managers shifting a bit more bearish, but not enough to look for serious downside action. Therefore, this selling pressure is likely just an opportunity for the bulls to reload. But that doesn't mean the selling is over.
Since we didn't get much upside today, I'm thinking the chances of a bounce are higher now for Friday.
