coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

Today's mixed trading day was consistent with my mixed indicators.




While the bears managed to push the DWCPF lower (barely), the bulls managed to push the S&P 500 higher (modestly). So, nothing has changed as far the charts go.

This evening, the options are neutral. My intermediate term system remains under pressure, but remains positive. Breadth is struggling now, but it too is still positive.

My bullish perspective remains intact (as does NAAIM). I see no clear market direction for Tuesday, but the trend does remain up.

 

[coolhand]

I was out of town the last few days (unexpectedly) and that took me away from my computer. I'm back now.

Last week, the bulls were not able to add to recent gains, but the bears were not able to mount a serious challenge as the C fund closed out the week just negative, while the S fund shed a bit over 1%.




The S&P 500 is tracking sideways again, while the DWCPF has dipped, but the trend is still up.

Breadth has stalled, but not retreated. It remains bullish. My intermediate term system is still positive, but could potentially flipped negative on just one moderately lower day.

NAAIM came in more bullish. TSP Talk is more bullish than it's been in many months, which is bearish, but as long as they're leaning in the direction of NAAIM and the trend I think it would be a mistake to bet against them. Having said that, while serious downside may not occur, the sentiment could make it tough to get serious upside traction too.

The OEX is bullish for Monday, while the CBOE is neutral.

There is little change to the big picture. Smart money is generally bullish, breadth is bullish and the trend is up. The negatives don't offset these indicators all that much. I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Not much change to the charts this evening. They remain bullish. I note that the options are leaning bearish this evening, so we're likely going to see more downside pressure on Tuesday. I anticipate it will be contained.

 

[coolhand]

Friday closed out the week with another upside breakout; this time on both charts.




With the DWCPF finally pulling away from its long consolidation, the market may be signaling even more upside in the weeks ahead.

Breadth remains bullish. My intermediate term system is bullish. The options are looking bullish for Monday. NAAIM is bullish as is TSP Talk. It would seem we all see the same bullish configurations on the charts.

I am bullish for the new week.

 

[coolhand]

I was looking for a choppy day on Thursday and we pretty much got that as price was all over the place, but did close near the neutral line.




Not much change to the charts as they remain bullish, though they are acting toppy.

The OEX and CBOE are neutral as we head into Friday. NAAIM was near unchanged and remains bulled up. I have to respect that given they are smart money. Breadth remains bullish as does my intermediate term system.

Overall, I just don't see much chance for serious downside action. In fact, we could see another break to the upside over the next few days, which would obviously be in keeping with the trend.

 

[coolhand]

It didn't take long for the bulls to strike back.




Both charts show healthy gains on day. Breadth turned back up from its already bullish stance. On the sentiment front, the OEX got beared up, while the CBOE is largely neutral. NAAIM reports in the morning. TRIN is bullish, but TRINQ is neutral. The signals are mixed, so the market may be on the choppy side for Thursday.

 

[coolhand]

Yesterday, I thought the bears might try to take price lower again, but with stiff headwinds was not anticipating that price would fall too much.




Price on the S&P 500 fell moderately, while the DWCPF fell twice as hard. That's more than I expected, but still not a surprise in the big picture. Looking at the S&P 500, it looks like just a dip after several days of upside. Nothing out of the ordinary there.

This evening, the options are now neutral. Breadth fell, but remains bullish. With NAAIM bullish, I would expect that the selling won't last much longer and we'll turn back up.

 

[coolhand]

Well, we got some selling today, but it didn't stick. That's yet another potential warning to the bears. It's an indication that this market is still strong; or at least resilient.




The S&P 500 eked out a gain today, while the DWCPF dipped modestly.

The OEX is neutral this evening, while the CBOE is bullish. NAAIM and TSP Talk were both bullish (last week). Weakness is normally expected after those kind of the readings (in the short term), but how much weakness we might get is not an exact science. Breadth remains bullish and my intermediate term system flipped positive (yesterday). NAAIM's bullishness has typically been consistent with market direction beyond the short term.

For tomorrow, we may see an attempt to take the market lower again, but the headwinds are stiff. I am not looking for much traction on any downside action.

 

[coolhand]

In my last post, I said that sentiment was suggesting that weakness may be dead ahead and gave the bears the nod for a few days. Despite Friday's rally, that weakness may still manifest, though if we don't see much weakness in evidence on Monday, the odds of any significant selling would begin to diminish. I also mentioned that breadth and trend were still very much bullish. Friday's rally was not a surprise under the circumstance.




The DWCPF finally closed at a fresh high on this rally. It took almost 6 weeks for that to happen, but that was my expected outcome out of the sideways consolidation. The S&P 500 continued to push ever higher. RSI is now pretty much in bearish territory (not a big deal in this market).

So, NAAIM came in pretty bullish last week, which is bullish in my book beyond a few days (a bulled up NAAIM is historically bearish in the short term, but not always). With breadth as bullish as it is maybe I shouldn't be looking for weakness at all. But, the OEX was bearish (smart money) as was the CBOE last Friday. For Monday, the OEX is still bearish. The CBOE is on the neutral side. TSP Talk is bulled up, which is bearish. So, sentiment is still telling me that weakness is likely, but trend and breadth could very well dictate price direction still. My intermediate term system flipped positive on Friday.

I'm on the fence here and can see it either way in the short term. Longer term, I'm bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The upside bias continued today, but things may be about to get interesting.




Looking at the charts, the bulls eked out some more gains today. The DWCPF looks tired and price has still not broken out to the upside. The S&P 500 is certainly more bullish as price has broken out. We can also see that the 50 dma had a positive cross through its 200 dma a few days ago. Note that RSI is near overbought. At face value, at I can't get overly bearish on these charts.

But this evening the OEX and CBOE are decidedly bearish. Moreover, NAAIM got bulled up quick and that's bearish in the short term. Sentiment alone suggest weakness dead ahead. The charts are bullish, but could be peaked (for now).

Breadth still looks darn bullish, but sentiment suggests it may be time for some give back. Now, I'm not particularly bearish (trend and breadth are bullish), but caution may be warranted for a few days. I'm giving the nod to the bears for now, unless proven otherwise.

 

[coolhand]

I was neutral for today and the market was acted much as expect with price rising and falling over the course of the day. But it was a positive close for the bulls.




Price on the DWCPF finally pushed past resistance, but can it hold above it? The S&P suggests it might given it's continued upward bias. These charts certainly remain bullish.

This evening, the OEX is neutral, while the CBOE is modestly bearish. Breadth remains bullish (obviously). My intermediate term system remains negative, but improving.

I'm neutral again as we head into Thursday, but the upside bias should be respected. NAAIM reports in the morning.

 

[coolhand]

After Monday's pop, the market took a bit of breather on the 2nd day of the new quarter.




Not much change to the charts.

Breadth dipped a bit, but remains darn bullish. The OEX is neutral, while the CBOE is on the bearish side for Wednesday.

I'm neutral for Wednesday.

 

[coolhand]

Curious...How is the level of breadth seen from the charts posted? Is breadth and momentum similar?

They are related, but not the same. You can see that both breadth and volume show similar chart patterns. I watch them both, but defer to breadth as my primary indicator.

 

[blueroadster]

Curious...How is the level of breadth seen from the charts posted? Is breadth and momentum similar?

 

[coolhand]

The last thing I said in yesterday's post was "Let's see if the new quarter sees a change in market character". Now, I can't be sure, but the S&P 500 posted fresh high since its December bottom and that may be the start of a change in market character. But I don't want to get ahead of myself.




The DWCPF got back to its current resistance level around 1400. If it can clear that level with some degree of conviction, then the market may have legs. It won't take a lot more upside to put the S&P 500 in overbought territory, however.

Still, breadth, which was already bullish is getting a bit vertical again. That's not good news for the bears, but then if they understood breadth, they wouldn't be fighting the market :smile:.

The OEX is a bit bearish this evening. The CBOE is neutral. My intermediate term system improved, but remains negative. The market may give something back on Tuesday, but I'm thinking it may not amount to all that much.

 

[coolhand]

All 3 TSP stock funds posted gains last week. Since that big plunge over a week ago, those same stock funds have retraced roughly half of those losses.




The DWCPF shows price oscillating around its 200 dma and testing its 50 dma in the process. It's been over a month since the DWCPF hit its high, but the indicators do not suggest that "the" high is in. Looking at the S&P 500 gives me more reason to believe that the current up/down action is likely temporary before a resumption of the upward trend. Price on that chart remains near its previous high and its 50 dma is now seeing a positive cross through its 200 dma.

If that's not enough proof that the bulls remain in control (until proven otherwise), breadth hit a fresh high on Friday. That's a primary indicator that's very good at discerning trend. My intermediate term system now looks like it may be starting to turn back up (it's still negative). It's suggesting that the sideways action may be nearing an end. NAAIM got more bearish last week, but they are not overly bearish as a group. The increase in bearishness could be a function of end-of-quarter action and/or the official start of Basel III come Monday. In other words, the short term got a bit uncertain so risk may have been tempered.

The options are neutral. Our overly bullish stance from the previous week saw a modest dip in bullishness for the new week. We would appear to be largely of the mindset that the bull market remains intact. The survey is neutral overall given current context.

I remain bullish. Let's see if the new quarter sees a change in market character.

 

[coolhand]

The back and forth battle over price continued once more today, this time with the bulls closing with a gain.




To this point, the downside appears to be limited. But the upside appears limited too. I believe this is a consolidation period with a upside breakout eventually emerging (direction of the trend).

This evening, the OEX is bearish, while the CBOE is bullish. I'm reading the options are bearish overall. NAAIM came in less bullish, but it appears some of those money managers are preserving capital rather than going short. They remain bullish overall, but their more cautious stance suggests more downside pressure may be on the way (short term).

Breadth, however, hit a fresh high and remains quite bullish. It's odd to me given my intermediate term system remains negative with no serious sign of turning back up.

Precious metals got slammed today. I follow this market and if you are not aware, Basel III officially goes into effect on Monday. Here's a video that tries to explain one of the more significant global central bank changes in Basel III:

https://www.sgtreport.com/2019/03/andrew-maguire-basel-iii-gold-rocket-fuel-added-for-golds-next-takeoff/

I am not an expert on this, so I do not plan to try and explain it. I just know it's not an insignificant development over the longer term. It may be one of the reasons why the market is acting a bit odd, but that's just conjecture on my part. Maybe that's why NAAIM got more defensive?
Overall, the trend remains intact, just stalled. I'm thinking we see more attempts by the bears to take the market lower, but I am not particularly bearish given breadth.

 

[coolhand]

The volatility remains with us. Today, the bears won, but not much damage has been done.




Since last Friday's sizable decline, the bears have not been able to extend losses, though they are still trying. As negative as this market may feel, price on the S&P 500 is not that far from its high.

My intermediate term system is negative. TRIN and TRINQ are leaning bullish for Thursday. Breadth dipped, but remains positive. The OEX is neutral, while the CBOE is bullish. NAAIM reports in the morning.

The indicators suggest a bullish outcome for Thursday.

 

[coolhand]

We got a bounce, but it was another roller coaster kind of day.




The S&P 500 still looks reasonably bullish. The DWCPF is trying to get back above its 200 dma. Maybe tomorrow?

The options are rather neutral this evening. Breadth moved higher and remains in good shape. Not much else to add this evening.

 

[coolhand]

Unless the "S" fund has a couple of big moves up I don't see the fund ending the month positive.

We'll see what happens. Looks like it could go either way.