coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

Cool
do anticipate flat chop in equities for the week??
EJJ

I'm thinking we're hitting a patch of volatility. It should still resolve to the upside if the trend remains intact, but that's beyond this week's trading timeline. But news may drive this market higher if the Chinese trading situation resolves in favor of the U.S.

 

[coolhand]

This morning before I went to work, I noted that futures were down in the neighborhood of 2%. I posted my thoughts well before the open because once I leave home, I can't access the site (to post) until late in the day.

Those who have been following me should know that I don't discuss geo-political events (to include anticipated events) on the board, but I still take them into account when assessing risk. There are political maneuverings that may be influencing risk right now (emphasis on the word "may"). The trick is to discern in which direction risk applies. The negative open might have been an early warning associated with increased risk, but it would depend on what happens over the days following.




The fact that the market recovered as well as it did significantly reduces downside risk for now. It appears the weak action was designed to emphasize the perceived negative impact of China walking away from trade talks. But it now appears it was just theater and a planned event.

This evening, the options are bearish. Cumulative breadth dipped, but only modestly.

I was bullish going into the new week, and given the market's recovery I can maintain my bullish stance for now, but I'll be paying a bit more attention to the theater that will continue to play out over the weeks ahead.

 

[shitepoke]

Cool
do anticipate flat chop in equities for the week??
EJJ

 

[coolhand]

Futures point to a very red open, which is unusual in a market that is trending higher; seemingly oblivious to attempts to take it down in a meaningful way. Chances are that any downside will not last long, but I would not bet heavy on it. Something may be approaching that the insiders are aware of, though NAAIM didn't indicate such in their latest sentiment poll. What happens today may not be as important as what happens after that. All we can do is see what today brings and go from there.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls managed to push the averages higher over the course of last week's trading. In other words, the melt-up continued.




What's interesting to me, but not a surprise, is that the DWCPF closed at a fresh high on Friday despite my intermediate term system flipping negative the previous trading session. The S&P 500 it sitting at its highs as well. It confirms what I've recognized for quite some time, which is that this is not a normal market. Following indicators and sentiment have become at least a bit more tricky. That's why I've been focused on breadth and NAAIM as primary indicators (NAAIM being smart money).

Breadth turned back up on Friday and remains firmly bullish. While my IT system flipped negative late last week, it's possible that some of it's signals have bottomed and that means the market may be poised for another leg up. It doesn't have to happen immediately, but I highly suspect that it will happen.

The options show the OEX neutral, while the CBOE is decidedly bearish.

I'm bullish heading into the new week. There just isn't any compelling evidence to look for serious downside action at this time.

 

[coolhand]

I was looking for a bounce on Thursday and we got it, but it came early and then the sellers came in. Still, the market closed well off its lows and the DWCPF actually had a modest gain (no charts today).

The selling flipped my intermediate term system negative, but there is still no serious price damage. Better yet for the bulls, NAAIM remains solidly bullish. The options are neutral.

It appears the market is consolidating again before resuming its upward trend. Follow NAAIM.

 

[coolhand]

Signals were mixed on Tuesday, which had me looking for chop on Wednesday. And for most of the day, we got chop; until late in the afternoon session when the markets reacted negatively to what appeared to be a somewhat negative tone on inflation (transitory). That negative reaction took prices much lower by the close.




Still, the technical damage is benign (so far).

My intermediate term system remains positive. I note that TRIN closed high, which is bullish for Thursday, but TRINQ was neutral, so maybe an uneven bounce? Breadth turned down, but remains positive. The OEX is now neutral, while the CBOE is on the bullish side.

The indicators are pointing to a bounce, but can it hold if we get it? NAAIM reports in the morning.

 

[coolhand]

As expected, we got some weakness today. And as also expected, the downside remained contained.




In fact, while the DWCPF dipped modestly, the S&P 500 managed to eke out a gain. Both recovered from early selling pressure.

My indicators are rather neutral this evening, though breadth is still bullish. The OEX is bearish this evening, while the CBOE is leaning bullish.

The OEX suggests we may have more downside pressure coming, but it still should not amount to much with the CBOE leaning the other way. I'm thinking we may be in for a choppy day of trading.

 

[coolhand]

The melt up continued today.




For this evening, the options are looking a bit bearish, so we might have some measure of weakness on Tuesday. Breadth remains bullish, so any downside will likely remain contained.

 

[coolhand]

You mentioned a book called "The Creature from Jekyll Island". Over 20 years ago, I took a 2- week course at the Federal Law Enforcement Training Center (FLETC) in Brunswick GA. Its basically like a military base with barricks, mess hall , etc. On the weekend we were free to leave and I took a day trip with fellow classmates to tour Jekyll Island and St.Simon Island.. As I recall, it had some old mansions and compounds previously visited by the ultra rich. So its interesting to know that this Island figures into the book you mention about the Federal reserve and international banking power!

I was looking into buying book but found this link to a pdf version. Reading it now, and it is very interesting!

https://archive.org/stream/pdfy--Pori1NL6fKm2SnY/The%20Creature%20From%20Jekyll%20Island_djvu.txt

Always wanted to know more on this topic, but seems there is sooooo much more to it.

Coolhand, Thank you for telling us about the book.

Jekyll Island was where the biggest names in banking (JP Morgan, etc.) gathered (covertly) back in the 1913 to plan a financial take-over the US (Federal Reserve). There were some insiders in DC that helped this along. It should be noted that President Andrew Jackson fought the bankers during his Presidency (Trump has his picture hanging in the Oval Office)when they tried to infiltrate during those years. Many of our Founding Fathers understood what a Central Bank really means (loss of control of your country) and would never willingly go along with such a paradigm. Over time, those that understood passed away and those born after the fact (like us) did not know any better. We generally think it's always been that way. This book will give anyone who reads it a better foundation of how things really work (or don't).

 

[pmaloney]

Thanks! I just downloaded the PDF and the Kindle version too. :smile:

 

[Mcqlives]

Thanks DBA! Saved as a PDF and I already started reading it this morning. I skimmed section 2 and am reading section 4 in detail. This is a good read for sure! I think it will effectively replace several books I have read and still reference when the markets do something crazy in response to the FED or the other central banks.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

You mentioned a book called "The Creature from Jekyll Island". Over 20 years ago, I took a 2- week course at the Federal Law Enforcement Training Center (FLETC) in Brunswick GA. Its basically like a military base with barricks, mess hall , etc. On the weekend we were free to leave and I took a day trip with fellow classmates to tour Jekyll Island and St.Simon Island.. As I recall, it had some old mansions and compounds previously visited by the ultra rich. So its interesting to know that this Island figures into the book you mention about the Federal reserve and international banking power!

I was looking into buying book but found this link to a pdf version. Reading it now, and it is very interesting!

https://archive.org/stream/pdfy--Pori1NL6fKm2SnY/The%20Creature%20From%20Jekyll%20Island_djvu.txt

Always wanted to know more on this topic, but seems there is sooooo much more to it.

Coolhand, Thank you for telling us about the book.

 

[coolhand]

The market closed higher for the week on Friday, with price hitting fresh closing highs on both charts.




The bears can't get anything going and resulting in a melt up.

My intermediate term system remains positive. I note that TRINQ is high, which is bullish for Monday. Breadth remains bullish.

The options are neutral. TSP Talk remains bulled up, but not quite a much as last week. NAAIM remains bullish.

The song remains the same as the trend remains to the upside.

 

[coolhand]

Coolhand, greatly appreciate your analysis, as always; I looked up Ichimoku not really understanding the clouds on the chart. It is supposed to provide a high view and supporting trends; how do you interpret that? I seems to me that it lags the market quite a bit... i.e. the 24 Dec bottom and the shift from red to green in March. Thanks!

The future cloud formation is just that, a future price projection based on past price action. There is no quick explanation of Ichimoku clouds, but here is link that does a decent job of sorting it out.

https://traderhq.com/trading-indicators/ichimoku-cloud-trading-strategy-explained/


I don't actively trade anymore, so I don't do in-depth chart analysis. I can look at a chart and see what I need to see fairly quickly, however. But my insight goes beyond charts (and sentiment) and delves into the geopolitical landscape in terms of risk to the financial markets. I avoid discussing that part of my analysis the majority of the time as most will not understand why I see what I see and that generates more questions than I care to answer. This is a tool that took me years to develop and can't be learned in most (if any) higher learning centers. Anyone who wants to begin a foundation of this type of perspective can start by reading The Creature From Jekyll Island.

 

[Whipsaw]

Coolhand, greatly appreciate your analysis, as always; I looked up Ichimoku not really understanding the clouds on the chart. It is supposed to provide a high view and supporting trends; how do you interpret that? I seems to me that it lags the market quite a bit... i.e. the 24 Dec bottom and the shift from red to green in March. Thanks!

 

[coolhand]

The bears managed to take a little something back on Thursday. Their efforts were met with pushback as the resilience of this market remained on display.




While the DWCPF took the biggest loss, neither chart strayed that far from its highs. I do note that RSI has been dancing around the overbought line for more than 3 weeks now. But the upward bias has not changed.

Today's weakness put my intermediate term system a hair from going negative. That sounds bearish (it is), but breadth remains in a bullish configuration. And while the options are neutral again, NAAIM came in not far from unchanged (bullish).

It looks like more of the same on tap. An overall upward bias.

 

[1965Vintage]

I want to think you (again) for your daily post! They help me a lot!
I got out today (back to G) with a gain of .80 for the month.

I'll be waiting for a dip in May to get back in and make another percent. My goal is to make 1% a month. No greed, no fear.

My 12 month TSP return is 12% (Perfect) I owe a lot of that to you and TSP Talk for his post as well.

I spend 95% or better of my time in the G fund (Safe) But I make swing trades each month. It works well for me.
The "Coolhand Indicator" as I call it, is one I watch very closely.

Thanks again!

 

[coolhand]

I'm having problems with the charts this evening, but there wasn't much action in the markets today so we won't miss much.

There was little change once again and my indicators remain largely the same. The options are neutral, so they aren't much help. Still, the bulls remain in control. NAAIM reports in the morning.

 

[coolhand]

Yesterday, I said that I saw no clear market direction for Tuesday, but that the trend did remain up. It didn't hurt that NAAIM was bullish either.




As it turned out, price soared higher on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 hitting a fresh high and the DWCPF closing back at its previous highs.

My intermediate term system got well on the rally (it was still positive). Breadth turned back up (it too was already positive).

The OEX is bullish this evening, while the CBOE is neutral.

It's a slam dunk; the market remains in bull mode. I suspect we may get some residual upside early in the trading day on Wednesday.