coolhand's Account Talk

[BooDog]

This is the kind of BS that rattles things imo

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/14/mar...ely-push-fed-to-raise-rates-james-bianco.html

That and other media crap from Cramer.

 

[BooDog]

Doesn't take much to give the market jitters imo. Futures were just up over 100 pts, now negative. If we could day trade.....

 

[1965Vintage]

Price on the S&P 500 closed above its 200 dma. Price on the DWCPF is testing its 200 dma now.

View attachment 44130
View attachment 44129

Most of my indicators are neutral. Sentiment is neutral. Breadth is very positive. I remain bullish, but not complacent. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

This market is making me sick. I got out too early in January and made 2%. Been waiting for a pull back ever since!
Haven't used any IFT's in February yet.
I don't want to fall into FOMO and jump in here but I may.
I missed all of the drop at the end of 2018 and was happy about that, but sure have messed up on this unbelievable rise!
It just won't stop!

Sent from my XT1585 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

 

[coolhand]

Price on the S&P 500 closed above its 200 dma. Price on the DWCPF is testing its 200 dma now.




Most of my indicators are neutral. Sentiment is neutral. Breadth is very positive. I remain bullish, but not complacent. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

 

[coolhand]

So, I've been favoring an upside break of the S&P 500 200 dma and price is once more knocking on that door. Today's rally certainly felt bullish. I think a break is coming soon.




Price on the DWCPF is also near its respective 200 dma. Momentum has turned back up as has breadth.

The OEX is neutral as is the CBOE. Remember, NAAIM was bullish last week, so the turn higher is not a surprise. The question is, will the 200 dma be broken? As I said above, I think it will. But will it hold? We're probably going to find out soon. I favor the bulls.

 

[coolhand]

So, the market is running into resistance at the S&P 500 200 dma. For the week, the C and S funds eked out modest gains, but the I fund fell hard.




The market did manage to close for a gain on Friday, but perhaps more importantly it reversed losses to do it. So the bulls are fighting back. But momentum has turned down and breadth has as well and resistance is holding to this point.

The options are neutral for Monday. TSP Talk got more bullish, which is bearish, but NAAIM is also bullish and that's smart money. The upward trend has not been broken, but the 200 dma does need to be broken. I continue to look for an upside break, but even if we get it, we could see another attempt to take the market back down. So, things could get interesting in the days ahead. I'm bullish for now, but could flip as the market reveals its intent.

 

[Mcqlives]

Agreed that the retest of the 200 is essential. I would prefer to see us meander in the 2706-2741 range for a few days and then break through to the upside, decisively, on the third test. Good luck all!

 

[coolhand]

So, the 200 dma is presenting resistance to price as the market sold off today. The bulls will point out that the market closed well off the lows, which is true.




Technical damage is still contained, but momentum and breadth did turn down (not bearish as yet). But we have some interesting sentiment to ponder. The options are leaning bearish for Friday. Interestingly, NAAIM got more bullish and does not seem to be concerned about the downside. That tells me that while we can certainly get more short-term weakness, price is likely to rebound and challenge the 200 dma once more; likely breaking it for a day or two. If that happens, the market could reveal a bull trap and we'd see price head back down again for larger losses. That's just a scenario. It's at least as likely that price continues higher after a break of the 200 dma. I would follow NAAIM and give the nod to the bulls under these conditions.

 

[BooDog]

I took a chance increasing my position a bit yesterday after telling myself I wouldn't chase. Only added a little bringing my C S & I to 10% each. So if this isn't just a short consolidation at least I can use my 2nd when it does bottom.

Good luck to all!!

 

[coolhand]

The market had a modest pullback on Wednesday, but no technical damage was done. That is not a surprise given some of the technical indicators. Momentum and breadth can be difficult to turn (like a train once it gets going).




What's a bit interesting is that this weakness, modest as it was, occurred just under the 200 dma on S&P 500. I do not think it's a precursor of a reversal; at least not yet. I am looking for an upside break of that key average before the market might see any significant selling pressure. It's certainly due given how much ground has been retaken by the bulls.

This evening, the OEX is bearish and the CBOE is neutral. Breadth dipped, but remains solidly bullish. NAAIM reports on Thursday.

I remain bullish, but watchful for a potential change.

 

[wahinepio]

2741.77 (200)
SOTU another plea for unity. but that wall is impossible to penetrate.

 

[coolhand]

Tag, the 200 dma is hit on the S&P 500. DWCPF next?




Price isn't acting as though it's tired, but now that the 200 dma is being tested we'll soon see how much strength is left in this rally.

Momentum remains positive. Breadth is very bullish. The options are modestly bearish. Since breadth and momentum are in the bull's favor, I'd not bet on too much downside as yet. In fact, the SOTU may extend the rally. Of course, some might argue we may top right here based on the SOTU. I'm not in that camp.

In any event, it's speculation on my part. I remain bullish simply based on the indicators.

 

[pmaloney]

It's not the spoon that is bending. :smile:

 

[sniper]

When I read your posts, I always imagine it being said in the Neo voice

 

[coolhand]

Monday picked up where last week left off as price continued to march higher.




Price is not far from testing the 200 dma on the S&P 500. Price on the DWCPF isn't much further away either. This will be an area where price may encounter resistance, so we'll have to see how price reacts to this key average. Momentum remains bullish.

The options are now neutral. Breadth remains quite positive. I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The upward bias continued last week.




We can see that the 200 dma remains untested, but I am looking for a test over the days ahead. Momentum remains positive as does breadth.

The OEX is bearish for Monday, while the CBOE is neutral. NAAIM remains on the bullish side. TSP Talk got bulled up last week. Overall, I am looking for price to continue to chop higher over the course of this week.

 

[coolhand]

I was looking for some degree of weakness of Thursday, but didn't think we'd see anything serious. We didn't. In fact, it was mostly an "up" day. Not surprising with breadth almost vertical to the upside.




Price is getting closer to testing those 200 dma's. Maybe next week?

This evening, the options are bearish overall. However, NAAIM came in relatively unchanged and that's bullish beyond a day or two. Breadth is very bullish as is the A/D line.

I remain bullish overall, but the options suggest weakness on Friday. If we don't get weakness, we may get chop instead as the market digests recent gains. Of course, we could rally some more too, but I don't favor that possibility. For our purposes in TSP, I'd look beyond Friday and remain focused on staying the course in stocks.

 

[coolhand]

Yesterday, I said I was leaning bullish, but was not sure if the bears would try to counter the move. They tried, but not very effectively. I also said that I was anticipating an upside breakout given that was still the trend.




We can see that price did breakout on both charts today. Breadth was very positive as was volume. The move may have legs, but we'll give it a bit more time to play out.

The OEX is bearish this evening, while the CBOE is neutral. I suspect the market may give something back on Thursday, but I am not looking for any serious downside.

 

[coolhand]

The back and forth action continued today as the bears tried to take price lower, but the bulls would step in to counter the weakness.




I have no strong short-term conviction on price movement right now, but the sideways action should break to the upside given the trend.

TRINQ is bullish for Wednesday. The OEX and CBOE are neutral. My intermediate term system remains positive.

I suspect we'll see some degree of upside on Wednesday, but the bears may try to counter again. It could be another day similar to today.

 

[coolhand]

The bears returned on Monday as price was pressured once again, but losses were contained and well within reason for a market that has rallied as much as this one has over the past few weeks. It would seem a trading range is being defined, but I expect that range to break to the upside given the trend remains up.




No significant changes can be seen on the charts.

The OEX is neutral this evening, while the CBOE is modestly bullish. My intermediate term system remains positive as does breadth.

The bias remains higher.