coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

The SS is hanging in there, but not by a whole lot. Hopefully we rally again soon and get more life back into them.

But I'm watching em'.

 

[Guest2]

The SS is hanging in there, but not by a whole lot. Hopefully we rally again soon and get more life back into them.

But I'm watching em'.

Somethings telling me that big dollars are entering the market or are just
about to. A "Spring Board Rally" is my call. **Boink** +3.5% **Boink**

Something is also tell'n me that the SS won't be turning 100% Sell any
time this coming week !

 

[coolhand]

Somethings telling me that big dollars are entering the market or are just
about to. A "Spring Board Rally" is my call. **Boink** +3.5% **Boink**

Something is also tell'n me that the SS won't be turning 100% Sell any
time this coming week !

I tend to agree at this point.

 

[poolman]

Somethings telling me that big dollars are entering the market or are just
about to. A "Spring Board Rally" is my call. **Boink** +3.5% **Boink**

Something is also tell'n me that the SS won't be turning 100% Sell any
time this coming week !

Squalebear,

I agree with your Hypothesis. I feel a major rally is coming tomorrow. I think by 8:45 tomorrow morning we will for the most part know where the market is going. Coolhand is also a major part of my analysis.

The last 2 day's have been down in anticipation of the jobs report. I believe it is a setup for major rally time.

 

[nnuut]

Hope it does, I'm loaded and ready!

 

[nnuut]

Why NOT? Look at the TRAN weekly!
View attachment 6645

 

[coolhand]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124960476129713019.html

 

[coolhand]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124958049241511735.html

 

[airlift]

The econ numbers are pretty good. If you had only 2 choices, would you pick 100 S or I for a few %centage points, and then find refuge in G or F?

 

[coolhand]

The econ numbers are pretty good. If you had only 2 choices, would you pick 100 S or I for a few %centage points, and then find refuge in G or F?

That really depends on the dollar, which is currently hitting support around 77.5. I couldn't bet the farm on the I fund at this point, although I still want to overweight it.

Too early to worry about G or F. We still need to see how things play out on the long side, but if we see bonds pulling back it could be a good place to go once the IT trend reverses. We'll have to see when that finally happens.

 

[airlift]

Thanks!

 

[Blindman]

Forgive my stupidity, but I am one of those sitting on the sidelines wonder what happened?? Missed the big market correction early 2008 and have been gun shy to get back in ever since. Any suggestions for a man wanting in? This is my first post and new to this area! Enjoy reading all the threads.

 

[Boghie]

Forgive my stupidity, but I am one of those sitting on the sidelines wonder what happened?? Missed the big market correction early 2008 and have been gun shy to get back in ever since. Any suggestions for a man wanting in? This is my first post and new to this area! Enjoy reading all the threads.

Blindman,

There are going to be many differing opinions here. You have found one of the good ones. Everybody has been gun shy (or a very disciplined buy and holder) as a result of October, November, and March.

My feeble recommendation is to:

1. Make 100% of your salary contributions in the C/S/I funds. Make the largest contributions you can in this time of post panic (would have been even better in the panic). Feel comfortable about that. All the funds started trading on day one of their existance at $10/share - and that was about 15 years ago. For a while we were buying American companies at $7 bucks a share.

2. Use one of your IFT trades to migrate a certain percentage of your G/F holdings into C/S/I every month. Maybe 20%. Save the last IFT to rebalance or bail out if we get another October, November, or March.

3. Remember that you can bail out to the G regardless of the IFT limit. You cannot increase your holdings in any other fund after the 2nd IFT, but you can pull back to the G.

4. And, actually, you can use SqualeBear's '<1%' transaction technique to migrate into other funds after you bang off the IFT limit. See the '<1%' thread for info on how to use this technique.

 

[Guest2]

blindman,

4. And, actually, you can use squalebear's '<1%' transaction technique to migrate into other funds after you bang off the ift limit. See the '<1%' thread for info on how to use this technique.

Thanks for the honorable mention !

 

[coolhand]

Forgive my stupidity, but I am one of those sitting on the sidelines wonder what happened?? Missed the big market correction early 2008 and have been gun shy to get back in ever since. Any suggestions for a man wanting in? This is my first post and new to this area! Enjoy reading all the threads.

Welcome Blindman!

The market is a very complicated place so anyone who's never taken a hard look at it is going to feel overwhelmed. It pretty much happens to everyone. I know lots of folks on the sidelines just like you.

It isn't anyone's place on the message board to tell anyone what to do with their account, but we do try to learn from each other in order to better understand how to make informed decisions for ourselves.

Some folks here will tell you to jump in with both feet right now, while others will tell you to wait for a better buying opportunity. For the moment, explore the message board and get familiar with all the tools and resources it provides. Get to know some of the posters and ask questions when you aren't sure about something. We will try to help you get on your feet again.

Glad to have you here!

 

[poolman]

Welcome Blindman

If you honestly have the interest then the knowledge will come. +1 on what Coolhand said.

Read Read Read


DJIA +125 Go Baby Gooooo

 

[tsptalk]

1. Make 100% of your salary contributions in the C/S/I funds. Make the largest contributions you can in this time of post panic (would have been even better in the panic). Feel comfortable about that. All the funds started trading on day one of their existance at $10/share - and that was about 15 years ago. For a while we were buying American companies at $7 bucks a share.

2. Use one of your IFT trades to migrate a certain percentage of your G/F holdings into C/S/I every month. Maybe 20%. Save the last IFT to rebalance or bail out if we get another October, November, or March.

3. Remember that you can bail out to the G regardless of the IFT limit. You cannot increase your holdings in any other fund after the 2nd IFT, but you can pull back to the G.

4. And, actually, you can use SqualeBear's '<1%' transaction technique to migrate into other funds after you bang off the IFT limit. See the '<1%' thread for info on how to use this technique.

Helpful post Boghie, thanks. But I'm not sure I follow latter part of #1.

The $10 share prices started in June of '03, but what was that about $7 a share?

Thanks again

 

[Boghie]

Sorry Tom,

I thought that the $10/share price occurred when the Gubmint converted to FERS from CSRS. My bust. But, you are right. We didn't have posted share prices prior to the web enabled TSP management.

The $7/share occurred in March. It was really $7.80 or something, but the comment still stands. I just didn't want to get into the weeds with a newbie. It was very tasty to purchase S&P shares at $7.80 a share since it was over $17/share just months before. Still tasty at $11.70 a share.

 

[coolhand]

Interestingly the dollar is stronger at the same time crude hit a six week high. Not what I would expect, but this why I didn't want to overplay the I fund. I'll wait till Monday and see what the dollar does, but it's possible I may want to reallocate some of my I fund to the S. We'll see. A trend reversal in the dollar is not a given just yet.

 

[fedgolfer]

Long term, it seems there's a US$ carry trade going on. But, short term at least, too many seem to have hopped on the 'tank the dollar trade'. And like most investing/trading plays, if its way overcrowded then the trend is usually reversed... question is, how long?