turbo23dog
Member
I also noted that Carnac recently said his crystal balls were glowing red hot meaning his indicators are pointing up too.
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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!coolhand's Account Talk
- Thread starter coolhand
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coolhand
Well-known member
Hmmmm, I think I'd have a Doctor take a look at that. :nuts:
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Or a hot nurse.:nuts:
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
coolhand
Well-known member
LOL...even better.
Okay, okay, I suppose I should get back to posting market stuff.
Saw a poster on another board make a comment on the ISM number today and felt it was just another shoe dropped from a very big centipede. His comment was to "look out below".
Now maybe we will have another big drop again soon, but I tend not to think so. Here is a reply to this posters comments that I thought was insightful:
"There is no new information in these reports. We all know that the economy has come to a complete halt. There is zero economic activity in the country. Everyone is in the bomb shelter. This is the acute phase of the crisis.
The question is .. when will people come out of the bunker and start making business decisions again, and they will when the panic subsides; what will the level of economic activity be in the environment with lower credit availability?
No doubt it will be lower then last few years, but will it be lower then the market has already discounted, or not? And the market has discounted a lot already.
All of these reports are known factors. The main unknown factor is actually positive. And that is the size and scope of the government spending that IS COMING. So since we have discounted all that doom and gloom information already, the next thing will be to discount the coming package. Don't doubt it, its coming, and its going to be big. And the market is going to go up ahead of it, and it will love it when it comes. And when the love is over and the euphoria wears off then we'll have another drop in the market.
But not now. Now is the time to think one step ahead."
Frixxxx
Moderator
VOLUME...When that runs, the stocks will run!
coolhand
Well-known member
That will certainly be part of it. Along with breadth.
poolman
Top Return 2008
Sentiment is pretty constructive right now for a significant rally at some point. The market needs to close above the 18 dma to have a chance to finally make the case for a bigger rally then we've seen.
I am not comfortable with either an all cash or stock position in the current trading environment. A significant upward move could prove to be lasting in large measure and leave a lot of bears in the dust. By the same token, another big leg down to a lower low would crush the bulls. Both scenarios are supportable for different reasons.
I am still in the bullish camp on an Intermediate Term basis (2 months), but am holding 25% cash in the event we take another dive. Either way, I won't miss out on an opportunity.
Good Job Coohand,
I know where your at. Your on the Train and it's going fast. Almost a 400 point move today, up and down for the most part 3 times.
We have now gotten back 442 points of the Monday sell off of 680 points.
I Love It. Classic Market Turmoil. All news bad and the Market Rally's.
Watch out for the next 500 point down day.
Good luck and I do know you have 25% Dry Powder. Good Luck and Be Car full.
coolhand
Well-known member
The SPX closed above its 18dma today. Thought I saw a couple posts about that being a key to break above to get a shot at a rally. Volume upticked slightly today from yesterday also. Are these signs we've been looking for or nothing to get exicted about?
I don't pretend to know what the market is going to do, but I do speculate like everyone else. The 18 dma is a key indicator that many traders watch. Closing above that would make me nervous if I was cash right now. We take another dive and I'm probably going all-in.
Birchtree
Well-known member
I believe I saw someone mention that there has been a surge in mortgage applications primarily for refinancings. The key is to already have great positions sitting in the portfolio when the next bull move comes. We came down with a vengence thanks to hedgies and now we could easily rebound just as quickly - though I hope we take our time because I have many, many dividends I'd like to reinvest on the way up.Maybe something else to digest. I would think this would bring some people back into the buying mode (stocks, that is):
Treasury Considers Plan to Stem Home-Price Decline: WSJ- WSJ
The Treasury Department is considering a plan to revitalize the U.S. housing market by reducing mortgage rates for new home loans, according to people familiar with the matter. The plan, which is in the development stages, would use mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to bring loan rates down as low as 4.5%, a full percentage point lower than the prevailing rates for 30-year fixed mortgages.
The FEDS have to force the mortgage rates down, if not the the burst bubble becomes a huge crater. There are to many ARM's out there that will be coming due in 2009. By bringing down the mortgage rates those with ARM's can refinance and have payments they can afford (I hope). If rates get any closer to 4% I may refinance my 6.75 mortgage (if they let me). Thats my opinion and I will stick to it.:nuts:
Frixxxx
Moderator
If your house has any value in it. The problem we see here is that a $500,000 house (2 years ago) is now only worth $320,000. Even if the loan was fixed then (with 20% down), the owner would still be upside down. The owner would have to come up with $42K just to refinance.
Also, most ARMs were written with (points/indexes) by lenders. I heard of one guy with 10 points on his loan, even with 1% prime, his loan would still be 11% interest. The real issue is that the banks need to take the hit for the loans and refinance EVERYONE to fixed so at least they get some money instead of NO MONEY.
coolhand
Well-known member
Wife and I have season passes to Universal Studios. We were there a little over a week ago and I still here a lot of European languages being spoken. German, Italian, French and of course folks from the UK. I'd say yes, there still coming over.
coolhand
Well-known member
If your house has any value in it. The problem we see here is that a $500,000 house (2 years ago) is now only worth $320,000. Even if the loan was fixed then (with 20% down), the owner would still be upside down. The owner would have to come up with $42K just to refinance.
Also, most ARMs were written with (points/indexes) by lenders. I heard of one guy with 10 points on his loan, even with 1% prime, his loan would still be 11% interest. The real issue is that the banks need to take the hit for the loans and refinance EVERYONE to fixed so at least they get some money instead of NO MONEY.
I know that there are a lot of facets to this problem and I don't know exactly how all this will play out. I think the problem will be attacked from multiple angles though and will still take time to sort out.
I have also read that quite a few new properties that were foreclosed are being abandoned (I see it right here where I live). There's so many of them the banks can't keep track. They've never had to before. I am hearing that in some areas thieves are breaking into these homes and gutting them, including tearing down walls to take copper wiring and pipes. All that's left is a shell.
It all depends on the zip code however. Real Estate issues vary greatly from one area to another. Most of these problems are in those areas like Florida or California where construction went through the roof and speculation was rampant.
coolhand
Well-known member
Looks like today was a buy. Of course we can't trade late afternoon action. I'm wanting to put that other 25% into the market. Maybe tomorrow?
I'm being told to buy by the service I subscribe to. It's not a new recommendation, but it seems more urgent every day. I agree with it too. Sentiment is good for at least an intermediate term rally. The bad news has already been priced into this market and I doubt we'll see a big decline on jobs numbers. Everyone already knows it's going to be bad so I'm looking for a rally soon.turbo23dog
Member
The market turning into a crap shoot/horse race every afternoon after 3PM sure makes it difficult to find a good spot to jump back in. I've been waiting all week and am feeling the need to submit an IFT tomorrow no matter what it looks like at ~11:50 am.Similar threads
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