coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

Much to the consternation of those sitting on the sidelines, the market made it 2 in a row today as the bulls pushed price back up near resistance once again.




Both charts show price not far under its previous high. A test sure looks likely. Momentum is rising, but not so you'd notice much.



Cumulative breadth ticked higher on the day and that keeps the signal bullish.

It didn't take long for the bulls to recapture much of last weeks losses. NAAIM got fairly bulled up, so I'm thinking there's more upside. The question is, can price get past resistance; especially on the DWCPF.

I remain bullish on the S&P and neutral to modestly bullish on the DWCPF.

 

[tom4jean]

So is this the end of sell in May and go away? I've been sitting on the sidelines chomping at the bits....

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[coolhand]

I had suspected a bottom may be near, but thought it might be a few days yet before the market got solid upside traction. It was more like a few hours. The very next day the market reversed and tacked on sizeable gains.




Price snapped back to the upside off support at the 50 dma on both charts. Momentum halted its downward movement for now. Strength (RSI) ticked higher.



Cumulative breadth also snapped higher and flipped back to positive in the process.

The short term downward cycle may be over. Monday's rally may be strong enough to turn momentum back up. The DWCPF has still not broken out of its long-term sideways dance and that could keep a lid on the upside. I remain bullish on the S&P and neutral to modestly bullish on a the DWCPF.

 

[coolhand]

I don't disagree with you at all. You are correct. But a manipulated market does not care about reality. It's all smoke and mirrors. Eventually, reality does catch up with the manipulators, but that usually takes years. Having said that, it's been years so maybe we are approaching something more profound. Smart money says we aren't there yet, but you can never be entirely sure.

 

[felixthecat]

The MACD on the charts u provided are rolling over with the blocks trending negative. I saw very unusual spike in trading volume on Friday's selloff during the last 30 minutes. The NYSE volume during the last 30 minutes was more than twice the volume for the trading day up to that point. Appears that advancing issues have been declining all week & the declining issues accelerating. I did not sense an exhaustive sell on Friday...felt more like a wave down starting to me. What has got me concerned is inflation numbers are more serious than the Federal Reserve is telling us. I do expect interest rates to rise early next year instead of 2023. Key indicators that will slow the economy down...high material costs, shortages in the chip industry, housing prices, energy, food, auto prices, and expanding debt. Easy money will become tight & companies that have propped up their stock with stock purchases will find their debt levels difficult to manage putting a drag on earnings. We need to get back to more reasonable market P/E numbers. We are near the dotcom bubble bust. Growth stock rotation is where the money is going. I see overbought conditions there though. Profit taking soon. Expect market to decline short term. We need a bigger correction or I fear stock growth will be lethargic.

 

[Valkyrie]

Welcome back CH. pray that all is well.

 

[coolhand]

I have not even looked at the stock market in more than a week, so let's see what we have.




Obviously, the past week was not favorable to the bulls. Price closed below the 50 dma on the S&P and is testing that average on the DWCPF. But I do see that the S&P hit a fresh, closing all-time high a few days ago. That didn't last long. Volume was also heavy on Friday. Momentum is falling on both charts and is also negative.



Breadth went negative on Friday and has been falling for about a week.

So, we have a short-term(?) down cycle that is now turning indicators negative. Last week, NAAIM was somewhat bullish overall, but this week they have increased their leverage on the long side, but a small bear contingent within their group is modestly playing the short side. The reading is solidly bullish overall. Our TSP sentiment survey is neutral.

Since the smart money is not only not backing off their bullishness (it increased), but increasing their leverage on the long side, I suspect a bottom is likely near. The indicators going negative at the end of the week supports that perspective as well. But our own survey is neutral (and some NAAIM managers are modestly bearish), so maybe the market chops around for a bit first. I will remain bullish on the S&P and neutral to modestly bullish on a the DWCPF, but I am anticipating that it may be a few days before the long side gets traction again. We'll see.

 

[Coastalview]

Sorry for the absence. Had to leave my home and computer for another week to attend to a private family matter. Got back home and my main computer isn't working.

Welcome back! Hope everything will be ok! I think a lot of people here missed your input including me, but family comes first.

 

[coolhand]

Sorry for the absence. Had to leave my home and computer for another week to attend to a private family matter. Got back home and my main computer isn't working.

 

[ToddB]

Yes missing your views cool!
Always great insight from you man!


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[wahinepio]

Missing the Cool; hope all is well. A Happy Summer to you.

 

[coolhand]

Still no lift-off in stocks, but the S&P did hit a fresh all-time, intraday high. It's sitting at or very near its all-time at the close. Resistance seems a bit stubborn, but the smart money is largely long, so it would seem just a matter of time before stocks begin another up-leg.




Nothing remarkable about today's trading activity. Both charts are struggling with resistance right now. Can the DWCPF push through it?



Cumulative breadth ticked higher and remains bullish.

NAAIM came in a tad lower, but remains bullish for the most part. They are leveraged long, but not overly so. There is still some degree of caution even while they are bullish.

Given the bullish stance by NAAIM, I will remain bullish on the S&P and neutral to modestly bullish on a the DWCPF. It doesn't hurt that breadth remains bullish either.

 

[coolhand]

It was a choppy day in the market today, which opened bullish and gradually went negative; especially in afternoon trade.




The S&P fell modestly, while the DWCPF fell moderately. No technical damage was incurred, but the DWCPF may be showing weakness in the face of resistance at its April peak.



Cumulative breadth dipped, but remains bullish.

Even though the smart money is bullish this week, the market isn't exactly off to the races. Both charts are hitting resistance now. I remain bullish on the S&P and neutral to modestly bullish on a the DWCPF. Let's see if the bulls can push through the rough patch.

 

[coolhand]

The S&P continued to tease the bulls with a potential upside break, but price remains very near the peak.




We can see price fell back today on the S&P, but fought back to resistance at the peak. Seems it may be coiling a bit for a move higher? Price on the DWCPF advanced again today and is now approaching the April high (resistance).



Cumulative breadth looks very good on the NYSE and remains bullish.

I remain bullish on the S&P and neutral to modestly bullish on the DWCPF.

 

[nasa1974]

CH,
Welcome back. Hope the time off refreshed everything.

 

[coolhand]

It was a rather odd trading day to start off the week. The S&P fell hard at the open and fought back to close out the day with a moderate loss. On the other hand, the DWCPF hit the gate running and never looked back, closing with a solid gain over 1%.




Price on the S&P continues to test resistance at its all-time peak. The DWCPF closed at a fresh high on the current up-leg. Still plenty of resistance above, so we'll have to see how well it contends with that.



Breadth remains bullish on the NYSE.

With a bullish NAAIM reading, I expect to see more upside in the coming days. I still think the S&P hits fresh all-time highs. The DWCPF has room to move higher, but can it push past all that resistance?

I remain bullish on the S&P, but neutral to modestly bullish on the DWCPF.

 

[coolhand]

Looks like things haven't fallen apart while I've been away. Good. Hope everyone had a nice Holiday weekend last week.

The market opened the first week of trading with moderate gains on both the S&P and DWCPF.




Price on the S&P is now flirting with its previous all-time high. This is an area of resistance, but I don't think it's strong. Price should break out to the upside; perhaps this week. Maybe even Monday or Tuesday. We'll see. Price on the DWCPF has managed to stay above its 50 dma, but that's about it. It continues to trade in a multi-month range. Momentum isn't a factor on either chart. It's rather flat.



Cumulative breadth on the NYSE is hitting fresh all-time highs and is bullish.

NAAIM has gotten progressively more bullish the past 2 weeks. Right now, they are bullish. Not overly bullish like they sometimes are, but just bullish. They are not shorting much at all. Longs appear to be leveraged. That's what we want to see if we're looking higher. TSP Talk sentiment is neutral.

The market hasn't really changed much (character) since I last posted. The S&P continues to look bullish beyond the short term, while the DWCPF treads water. We are in the weaker part of the 6 month cycle for what that's worth. I was neutral the last time I posted. I am going bullish on the S&P, but will remain neutral on the DWCPF.

 

[mmk119]

For all my TSP friends, acquaintances, and fellow investors; I would like to thank you all for you posts and wish you all a safe and happy holiday weekend. Remember what this holiday is all about. But also, remember it is one of the two most dangerous holiday weekends of the year. Please be safe. Thank you for all those who have sacrificed for us to be here today.

 

[dannyboy]

I am going to be away from my computer for the next week, maybe more. I do not expect to post for a little while. Have a Happy Memorial Day!

Your posts are very important
Happy Memorial Day to all.

 

[flalaw97]

Thanks Coolhand! Enjoy your vacation. NAAIM up from 44 to 68 today so hopefully the smart money is correct and the market has turned the corner and is headed back up.