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coolhand's Account Talk
- Thread starter coolhand
- Start date
coolhand
Well-known member
Yesterday, I said that both index charts were showing action that may be preludes to something bigger down the road. I said the action (up to that point) wasn't ugly yet, but that I would not want to be in the market should ugly show up.
We'll, I don't know if ugly showed up, but his little Brother might have. Ugly may be next.
Priced gapped lower on both charts at the open today and drove lower for the remainder of the trading day, closing near the low of the day. Price on the S&P closed short of testing support at the 50 dma. Of course, price is already below the 50 dma on the DWCPF, which is now testing horizontal support around the 2055 area.
Selling was widespread as cumulative breadth fell hard and is now bearish.
While we've seen this kind of selling on occasion in the past, I am not so sure the market will be recovering quickly this time. I could be wrong, but let's not forget how long the DWCPF remained in a trading range. It seemed to be telling us for weeks something was coming, so this may be just the beginning.
NAAIM reports tomorrow.
While the market may find support soon (I am not convinced), I am moving from a neutral sentiment to a bearish sentiment as I suspect market character has changed. I may be ahead of the market, but then again I may not.
We'll, I don't know if ugly showed up, but his little Brother might have. Ugly may be next.
Priced gapped lower on both charts at the open today and drove lower for the remainder of the trading day, closing near the low of the day. Price on the S&P closed short of testing support at the 50 dma. Of course, price is already below the 50 dma on the DWCPF, which is now testing horizontal support around the 2055 area.
Selling was widespread as cumulative breadth fell hard and is now bearish.
While we've seen this kind of selling on occasion in the past, I am not so sure the market will be recovering quickly this time. I could be wrong, but let's not forget how long the DWCPF remained in a trading range. It seemed to be telling us for weeks something was coming, so this may be just the beginning.
NAAIM reports tomorrow.
While the market may find support soon (I am not convinced), I am moving from a neutral sentiment to a bearish sentiment as I suspect market character has changed. I may be ahead of the market, but then again I may not.
coolhand
Well-known member
Where do I start? Have you seen all the headlines the past few days? Gas shortages, missiles flying, etc. Then you have some cryptos doing well of late and there's talk they will be doing better down the road. I don't normally get into headlines, but the market is seeing some action that should make one take pause.
In my last post I said the market likes to ambush traders when they don't expect it. Today felt like one of those days. The S&P took a good loss, but somehow the DWCPF fought back to about the neutral line (did the PPT step in?).
Price gapped lower on both charts at the open. The S&P did recover significant losses, but certainly not all the losses. The DWCPF closed for a modest loss, but price remains below the 50 dma on that chart, so closing neutral is a somewhat hollow victory. Momentum continued to fall today.
Cumulative breadth took a good hit today. It's still positive, but is it headed lower?
Both index charts are now showing action that may be preludes to something bigger down the road. It isn't ugly yet, but I would not want to be in the market should ugly show up. The idea is to grab gains when they present themselves and avoid losses as best you can. We've been in a bull market a long time and we all know it doesn't last forever. Yes, I may be getting ahead of myself, but what if trouble is near? Yes, NAAIM was bullish a few days ago, but what about right now? Our own survey was neutral and I'd say we were closer to reality this time than NAAIM was (to this point).
I am not sure what to expect. The market is having to digest a lot of information and much of it is negative. However, the market does have a perverse way of shrugging off bad news, but how long can it remain resilient if things go from bad to worse? From what I am hearing, this gas shortage can do some significant damage to the economy. Think about what would happen if gas become scarce. Think about how that would affect trucking, mail delivery and dining to name a few. I am just throwing this out there as food for thought.
Given the troubling action (not just today, but the sideways movement in the DWCPF and to a lesser extent the S&P) I am going neutral overall on both charts. There is now too much uncertainty at the moment for me to be bullish. It may be time to take a step back and watch what happens in relative safety.
In my last post I said the market likes to ambush traders when they don't expect it. Today felt like one of those days. The S&P took a good loss, but somehow the DWCPF fought back to about the neutral line (did the PPT step in?).
Price gapped lower on both charts at the open. The S&P did recover significant losses, but certainly not all the losses. The DWCPF closed for a modest loss, but price remains below the 50 dma on that chart, so closing neutral is a somewhat hollow victory. Momentum continued to fall today.
Cumulative breadth took a good hit today. It's still positive, but is it headed lower?
Both index charts are now showing action that may be preludes to something bigger down the road. It isn't ugly yet, but I would not want to be in the market should ugly show up. The idea is to grab gains when they present themselves and avoid losses as best you can. We've been in a bull market a long time and we all know it doesn't last forever. Yes, I may be getting ahead of myself, but what if trouble is near? Yes, NAAIM was bullish a few days ago, but what about right now? Our own survey was neutral and I'd say we were closer to reality this time than NAAIM was (to this point).
I am not sure what to expect. The market is having to digest a lot of information and much of it is negative. However, the market does have a perverse way of shrugging off bad news, but how long can it remain resilient if things go from bad to worse? From what I am hearing, this gas shortage can do some significant damage to the economy. Think about what would happen if gas become scarce. Think about how that would affect trucking, mail delivery and dining to name a few. I am just throwing this out there as food for thought.
Given the troubling action (not just today, but the sideways movement in the DWCPF and to a lesser extent the S&P) I am going neutral overall on both charts. There is now too much uncertainty at the moment for me to be bullish. It may be time to take a step back and watch what happens in relative safety.
coolhand
Well-known member
You bet. I've said in the past on occasion that we should not marry our sentiment and be prepared to change it if the market behaves counter to our expectations. We may be in a transitory phase with this market right now. I can't be sure, but the DWCPF is certainly giving us reason to not get complacent. The market likes to ambush traders when they don't expect it. Timing such events are notoriously difficult.
coolhand
Well-known member
So, maybe the Friday rally was a head fake? Monday's open was less than inspiring and it got worse in afternoon trading as both the S&P and DWCPF were beaten back for sharp losses on the day.
The pullback did not do a whole lot of damage to the S&P chart, but it did push price back into the upper end of the S&P's recent trading range. Momentum dipped. The DWCPF failed to hold its 50 dma and closed at a fresh multi-week low. Momentum continues to fall on this index.
Cumulative breadth fell sharply on the NYSE, but the signal remains bullish.
So, Friday it looked like we might see some upside follow through given the strength of the rally and Monday opens flat to negative and gets worse from there. The market has yet to fall apart (not that it will), but we have 2 charts that are telling us a different story. The S&P remains a bullish chart, but the DWCPF is neutral. If inflation really takes hold, I'd expect to the see the DWCPF sell off. Are we seeing the early stages of this over the past few months? Is the big money slowly preparing for such a scenario? Money has to flow somewhere, and the S&P has held up pretty well; pullbacks notwithstanding.
I remain bullish, but cautious on the S&P. I was bullish for the short term on the DWCPF, but I am going back to an overall neutral perspective on that index.
The pullback did not do a whole lot of damage to the S&P chart, but it did push price back into the upper end of the S&P's recent trading range. Momentum dipped. The DWCPF failed to hold its 50 dma and closed at a fresh multi-week low. Momentum continues to fall on this index.
Cumulative breadth fell sharply on the NYSE, but the signal remains bullish.
So, Friday it looked like we might see some upside follow through given the strength of the rally and Monday opens flat to negative and gets worse from there. The market has yet to fall apart (not that it will), but we have 2 charts that are telling us a different story. The S&P remains a bullish chart, but the DWCPF is neutral. If inflation really takes hold, I'd expect to the see the DWCPF sell off. Are we seeing the early stages of this over the past few months? Is the big money slowly preparing for such a scenario? Money has to flow somewhere, and the S&P has held up pretty well; pullbacks notwithstanding.
I remain bullish, but cautious on the S&P. I was bullish for the short term on the DWCPF, but I am going back to an overall neutral perspective on that index.
coolhand
Well-known member
Friday's market action saw the bulls come out swinging and they were able to hold significant gains all the way into the close. The action helped the S&P close with a decent weekly gain, but the DWCPF was still thrown for a sizable loss despite Friday's rally. Friday's market action did give us some things to watch moving forward.
Looking at the charts, we can see the S&P broke out higher and closed with a fresh all-time high. Momentum has yet to turn up, but if the index can get some follow through we should see momentum rise. Price on the DWCPF did manage to retake its 50 dma. That's a start, but this index has been very frustrating for those looking for new highs. Momentum has not turned up here either. The good news is that there seems to be a floor under this index (for now). But the length of this sideways dance is not bullish in my opinion. Still, it can go either way longer term.
Another thing of note is the sharp rise in cumulative breadth on Friday. That often spells follow through in the coming days. The signal was already bullish and this spike on Friday could be a marker for more gains this week.
Our TSP sentiment survey came in neutral. So, we have a bullish NAAIM reading and now a neutral TSP Talk reading. Both readings were taken before Friday's rally, so that could affect its interpretation to some extent. The surveys may have been more bullish if the readings were taken at the end of the week (my opinion). But it doesn't matter that much as were taking about neutral to bullish sentiment.
So, as I mentioned above, Friday may have been the start of a new up-leg (at least for the S&P). We'll know soon enough. But the smart money remains bullish, so there is little reason to doubt the bulls ability to continue driving this market.
I remain bullish on the S&P. I am going to go bullish on the DWCPF for the short term, but still neutral longer term.
Looking at the charts, we can see the S&P broke out higher and closed with a fresh all-time high. Momentum has yet to turn up, but if the index can get some follow through we should see momentum rise. Price on the DWCPF did manage to retake its 50 dma. That's a start, but this index has been very frustrating for those looking for new highs. Momentum has not turned up here either. The good news is that there seems to be a floor under this index (for now). But the length of this sideways dance is not bullish in my opinion. Still, it can go either way longer term.
Another thing of note is the sharp rise in cumulative breadth on Friday. That often spells follow through in the coming days. The signal was already bullish and this spike on Friday could be a marker for more gains this week.
Our TSP sentiment survey came in neutral. So, we have a bullish NAAIM reading and now a neutral TSP Talk reading. Both readings were taken before Friday's rally, so that could affect its interpretation to some extent. The surveys may have been more bullish if the readings were taken at the end of the week (my opinion). But it doesn't matter that much as were taking about neutral to bullish sentiment.
So, as I mentioned above, Friday may have been the start of a new up-leg (at least for the S&P). We'll know soon enough. But the smart money remains bullish, so there is little reason to doubt the bulls ability to continue driving this market.
I remain bullish on the S&P. I am going to go bullish on the DWCPF for the short term, but still neutral longer term.
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coolhand
Well-known member
A familiar theme continued in market trading today. The S&P showed resilience in fighting off early (moderate) weakness and turned back up to eventually post a solid gain. The DWCPF also started out weak, much weaker than the S&P, and while it did stage a comeback in the afternoon, it was too little, too late and it closed out the session with a moderate loss.
We can see that the S&P finished the session not far off its all-time high, while price on the DWCPF continues to dig deeper and closed under its 50 dma for the 2nd day in a row. It's hard to be bullish on that DWCPF chart. I am going to go neutral on it at this point. Momentum continued to fall on the DWCPF, while the on the S&P it appears that it "may" be turning back up. We'll have to see. Price on the DWCPF is currently testing support under the 50 dma. Let's see if it holds.
Breadth ticked higher on the day, but its gains are modest. It fits in with what we see with the struggling DWCPF that this bull market is not acting as strong as it once did. This may be an early warning (which is why I watch the smart money).
Speaking of smart money, NAAIM tempered their bullishness, but they were still bullish overall. They are definitely not showing much enthusiasm for the short side of the market to this point.
I had hoped the DWCPF would break out of its long term range by now, but it hasn't and instead is struggling just to maintain the 50 dma, which has flat-lined. That index is going nowhere right now. For this reason I am moving back to a neutral stance on the DWCPF, but will maintain a bullish stance on the S&P.
We can see that the S&P finished the session not far off its all-time high, while price on the DWCPF continues to dig deeper and closed under its 50 dma for the 2nd day in a row. It's hard to be bullish on that DWCPF chart. I am going to go neutral on it at this point. Momentum continued to fall on the DWCPF, while the on the S&P it appears that it "may" be turning back up. We'll have to see. Price on the DWCPF is currently testing support under the 50 dma. Let's see if it holds.
Breadth ticked higher on the day, but its gains are modest. It fits in with what we see with the struggling DWCPF that this bull market is not acting as strong as it once did. This may be an early warning (which is why I watch the smart money).
Speaking of smart money, NAAIM tempered their bullishness, but they were still bullish overall. They are definitely not showing much enthusiasm for the short side of the market to this point.
I had hoped the DWCPF would break out of its long term range by now, but it hasn't and instead is struggling just to maintain the 50 dma, which has flat-lined. That index is going nowhere right now. For this reason I am moving back to a neutral stance on the DWCPF, but will maintain a bullish stance on the S&P.
coolhand
Well-known member
Current market character continued to dish up and down action with a mixed closed today.
The S&P managed to eke out a very modest gain, while the DWCPF fell for the 6th trading day in a row. Price on that index also closed just under the 50 dma. Will it hold? That's what we want to watch. Momentum remains down.
Breadth ticked modestly higher and remains on the bullish side.
This market isn't what it used to be. We are not seeing even trading. Breadth remains okay (not great), but price is struggling to get upside traction; especially on the DWCPF.
We're still a couple of days from a fresh NAAIM reading. The action isn't terrible, but it isn't great either. I remain bullish, but how long can this market continue to tread water (especially the small caps).
The S&P managed to eke out a very modest gain, while the DWCPF fell for the 6th trading day in a row. Price on that index also closed just under the 50 dma. Will it hold? That's what we want to watch. Momentum remains down.
Breadth ticked modestly higher and remains on the bullish side.
This market isn't what it used to be. We are not seeing even trading. Breadth remains okay (not great), but price is struggling to get upside traction; especially on the DWCPF.
We're still a couple of days from a fresh NAAIM reading. The action isn't terrible, but it isn't great either. I remain bullish, but how long can this market continue to tread water (especially the small caps).
coolhand
Well-known member
We'll, we got an inspiring day today. It just wasn't for the bulls, but rather the bears who got some inspiration. All thanks to higher interest rate talks.
Price on the S&P fell, but did close well off its low of the day. Price also fell on the DWCPF, testing support at the 50 dma, which it did successfully as it close above that level after spending some time under it. Momentum is falling on both charts. I have to wonder why NAAIM has been so bullish. Is something else coming that turns things up?
Breadth dipped, but not a lot. The signal remains bullish.
Are the days of easy gains over? It sure is starting to feel that way. Looking at the DWCPF, we can see that we have a double top over the past 2.5 months. The S&P has fared much better, but it has largely stalled for more than 2 weeks. I am not bearish on this data, but it is noteworthy and certainly something to watch.
So, today's action wasn't what the bulls were looking for, but technical damage remains pretty light to this point. Since NAAIM has been bullish, I'm assuming price will turn back up at some point. But I'm still at least somewhat concerned about the DWCPF trading in a range as long as it has. Since the S&P has been trending higher during this time (expect the past couple of weeks), I have given the benefit of the doubt to small caps that they would eventually play catch up. We'll just have to keep watching the action for more clues as time goes on.
I remain bullish, but I am not complacent.
Price on the S&P fell, but did close well off its low of the day. Price also fell on the DWCPF, testing support at the 50 dma, which it did successfully as it close above that level after spending some time under it. Momentum is falling on both charts. I have to wonder why NAAIM has been so bullish. Is something else coming that turns things up?
Breadth dipped, but not a lot. The signal remains bullish.
Are the days of easy gains over? It sure is starting to feel that way. Looking at the DWCPF, we can see that we have a double top over the past 2.5 months. The S&P has fared much better, but it has largely stalled for more than 2 weeks. I am not bearish on this data, but it is noteworthy and certainly something to watch.
So, today's action wasn't what the bulls were looking for, but technical damage remains pretty light to this point. Since NAAIM has been bullish, I'm assuming price will turn back up at some point. But I'm still at least somewhat concerned about the DWCPF trading in a range as long as it has. Since the S&P has been trending higher during this time (expect the past couple of weeks), I have given the benefit of the doubt to small caps that they would eventually play catch up. We'll just have to keep watching the action for more clues as time goes on.
I remain bullish, but I am not complacent.
coolhand
Well-known member
It was another uninspiring day for the market on Monday. That's not necessarily a bad thing, just boring more than anything else.
Price didn't move much on either chart. The S&P was modestly higher, while the DWCPF modestly lower. Momentum remains down, but it's not affecting price a whole lot. It's that uninspiring nature I mentioned above.
Breadth actually moved higher and remains bullish.
There isn't a lot to say about the action that I didn't already say. As uninspiring as it is, the trend does still remain up. I would sure like to see the DWCPF break out to the upside finally. It's dragging its feet (or digging in its heels).
I remain bullish.
Price didn't move much on either chart. The S&P was modestly higher, while the DWCPF modestly lower. Momentum remains down, but it's not affecting price a whole lot. It's that uninspiring nature I mentioned above.
Breadth actually moved higher and remains bullish.
There isn't a lot to say about the action that I didn't already say. As uninspiring as it is, the trend does still remain up. I would sure like to see the DWCPF break out to the upside finally. It's dragging its feet (or digging in its heels).
I remain bullish.
coolhand
Well-known member
Friday's negative action capped what ended up to be a lackluster week.
Price fell on both charts Friday. The S&P ended up with only a very modest gain on the week, while the DWCPF took a moderate weekly loss. It's definitely been a slog for the S&P the past 2 weeks and also for the DWCPF. Upward traction has been difficult during that time. But the downside hasn't been there for the bears either. And it's still a bull market, so unless something changes I have to keep looking higher. Momentum has turned down on both charts.
Cumulative breadth fell on Friday, but the signal remains bullish.
Our TSP Talk sentiment survey remained bullish this week, which keeps us in line with the NAAIM reading.
So, while the indexes have been tracking sideways of late, the fact that this is still a bull market should carry significant weight unless proven otherwise. And since NAAIM remains bullish, it's easy to remain committed to the long side for now. The fact that the bears have been a non-factor helps too.
I remain bullish.
Price fell on both charts Friday. The S&P ended up with only a very modest gain on the week, while the DWCPF took a moderate weekly loss. It's definitely been a slog for the S&P the past 2 weeks and also for the DWCPF. Upward traction has been difficult during that time. But the downside hasn't been there for the bears either. And it's still a bull market, so unless something changes I have to keep looking higher. Momentum has turned down on both charts.
Cumulative breadth fell on Friday, but the signal remains bullish.
Our TSP Talk sentiment survey remained bullish this week, which keeps us in line with the NAAIM reading.
So, while the indexes have been tracking sideways of late, the fact that this is still a bull market should carry significant weight unless proven otherwise. And since NAAIM remains bullish, it's easy to remain committed to the long side for now. The fact that the bears have been a non-factor helps too.
I remain bullish.
coolhand
Well-known member
I learned about NAAIM from a Wall Street Pro (over 30 years experience). NAAIM is smart money. That's all I generally need to know and because they are smart money they shouldn't be second guessed (as a general rule). There are plenty of distractions out there. One can find a counter narrative to anything and everything on any topic and on any given day. It's a great way to run around in circles.
coolhand
Well-known member
Today, the market gave us a mixed close, with the S&P advancing and the DWCPF pulling back. Neither were big moves.
So we can see that price pushed past resistance on the S&P, while it was rejected on the DWCPF. Momentum is still more or less flat on the S&P, but hinting at turning down on the DWCPF. I'd take it with a grain of salt right now.
Breadth ticked higher and remains bullish.
NAAIM came in a bit more bullish today. They are pretty bulled up overall. I always look higher on readings like this.
While the DWCPF continues to have its struggles, the bulls have at least pushed price near its all-time high. Today's rejection is likely a temporary set-back; at least that's how I am looking at it. With NAAIM still bulled up, I'm looking higher on both indexes, but will the S&P begin leading again?
I remain bullish.
So we can see that price pushed past resistance on the S&P, while it was rejected on the DWCPF. Momentum is still more or less flat on the S&P, but hinting at turning down on the DWCPF. I'd take it with a grain of salt right now.
Breadth ticked higher and remains bullish.
NAAIM came in a bit more bullish today. They are pretty bulled up overall. I always look higher on readings like this.
While the DWCPF continues to have its struggles, the bulls have at least pushed price near its all-time high. Today's rejection is likely a temporary set-back; at least that's how I am looking at it. With NAAIM still bulled up, I'm looking higher on both indexes, but will the S&P begin leading again?
I remain bullish.
coolhand
Well-known member
It was another sloppy trading session today with the S&P and DWCPF both posted modest losses.
We can see that price didn't move all that much on either chart. The S&P and DWCPF both seem to be hitting resistance. It's as if the market is telling the bears "I'm ready to roll over, you can short now". And then the market will likely take off once again. Yeah, the bears love that game. :laugh:
Cumulative breadth looked good today despite the negative close. It remains bullish.
We get to see what NAAIM thinks of this action tomorrow when they post their latest sentiment reading.
I remain bullish for now.
We can see that price didn't move all that much on either chart. The S&P and DWCPF both seem to be hitting resistance. It's as if the market is telling the bears "I'm ready to roll over, you can short now". And then the market will likely take off once again. Yeah, the bears love that game. :laugh:
Cumulative breadth looked good today despite the negative close. It remains bullish.
We get to see what NAAIM thinks of this action tomorrow when they post their latest sentiment reading.
I remain bullish for now.
