coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28239960

http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/2008-12-14-stock-market-roundtable-investors_N.htm

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE4B50CL20081216?sp=true

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...fs-kiss-of-death-for-hedge-funds-1135376.html

 

[Birchtree]

That's certainly a lot of information in one place but I thank you so much - it's a delight to read. More ideas and more opportunities.

 

[coolhand]

Okay, after today's action I'm starting to get nervous. I'm up about 18% in very short order. Seasonality and light volume may continue to push us higher, but tickersense and the $weighted SPX are saying we may see a correction, although not necessarily right away. This is also options expiration week, so all of this has to be looked at in that light.

I'm thinking it may be time to start a cash position.

I'll know a little more after I digest today's events, but what does the board think?

 

[kar_crazy]

kind of watching you , i need all the help i can get ,and hope you keep kicking A$$

 

[kar_crazy]

well you and C P , but with my loss it is hard to tell what i am doing , just paying the man:embarrest:

 

[Birchtree]

At this point in time I wouldn't fight the Fed - the bears are about to get crushed. Snort!

 

[coolhand]

At this point in time I wouldn't fight the Fed - the bears are about to get crushed. Snort!

I agree longer term. I'm more concerned about the next 2 weeks.

Remember, you're talking to a timer.

 

[coolhand]

kind of watching you , i need all the help i can get ,and hope you keep kicking A$$

Hope you've made some money off my moves.

 

[kar_crazy]

sure been trying ,just dont bail when i should i guess i know its a (GREED) thing this is what wind hunter keeps telling me G L C H

 

[coolhand]

sure been trying ,just dont bail when i should i guess i know its a (GREED) thing this is what wind hunter keeps telling me G L C H

If I change my allocation I will post here first.

I took a look at Ira Epstein's mid-day review and based on the close and his charts would have to say that today's action was certainly bullish. Not only do we have a higher high, but we closed at it, and that suggests the trend has indeed changed. There's a very good chance we have some more room to the upside yet.

 

[coolhand]

More fallout from the Madoff scandal:

http://business.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20081216.RWILLIS16/TPStory/?query=

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1095607/Top-hedge-funds-battering-Madoff.html?ITO=1490

http://www.nypost.com/seven/12162008/business/noels_hedge_fund_unlikely_to_survive_mad_144455.htm

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/16/hedge-fund-index-hit-by-madoff-investements/

 

[turbo23dog]

If I change my allocation I will post here first.

I got my eye on you...

 

[coolhand]

So far, the action this morning looks bullish.

I have been cautioned by the trader that I follow not to get bearish and to ignore the news. The Russell 2000 is spiking higher as I write this.

 

[XL-entLady]

I'm thinking it may be time to start a cash position. I'll know a little more after I digest today's events, but what does the board think?

So far, the action this morning looks bullish.

I have been cautioned by the trader that I follow not to get bearish and to ignore the news. The Russell 2000 is spiking higher as I write this.

I'm only in equities 30% but am staying put. I'm out of IFTs and would be locked out of the market if I took profits now. I think there is more upside this month, so I'm keeping my allocation. And thanks for keeping us posted on your moves. We all appreciate it!

Lady

 

[airlift]

Hi Coolhand,

I will appreciate if you can give your best opinion regarding whether volume is low or not in relative terms. As I write now at 11:38 Eastern time, Yahoo shows NYSE up volume at 759 (39%), down volume at 1190 (61%). Nasdaq up volume 225(35%); down volume at 414 (64%).

Based on your experience what can you surmise from these limited numbers? Thanks.

So far, the action this morning looks bullish.

I have been cautioned by the trader that I follow not to get bearish and to ignore the news. The Russell 2000 is spiking higher as I write this.

 

[coolhand]

Hi Coolhand,

I will appreciate if you can give your best opinion regarding whether volume is low or not in relative terms. As I write now at 11:38 Eastern time, Yahoo shows NYSE up volume at 759 (39%), down volume at 1190 (61%). Nasdaq up volume 225(35%); down volume at 414 (64%).

Based on your experience what can you surmise from these limited numbers? Thanks.

Volume appears to be on the light side overall. Considering the gains from yesterday, today's action has to be considered very bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Check out the "ARMs Reset Problem Vanishes" blog by Mish. It confirms that things are going to get better in the not-to-distant future.

Having said that we also need to watch out for a change in news sentiment. When that changes it'll be time to be on guard.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

 

[coolhand]

As Tom pointed out in his daily commentary, sentiment is turning. This could be problematic in the short term. Seasonality is still on our side and today is OPEX so it's not easy to get a good read on where we are headed in the next week or so.

We are eight trading days away from getting two new trades so it may be time to build a cash position just in case things go south. Speaking for myself, I would not sell more than half my position and wouldn't necessarily do it all at once. A correction prior to another leg higher is not out of the question. In fact, I'm expecting it. Pretty tricky trading though, as it may not happen till sometime in the new year. I'm inclined to see how the trading goes early next week before I get too aggressive with any selling.

 

[airlift]

President Bush will be making a statement at 9:00 A. M. regarding the bailout of the automakers. CNBC analysts expect this to be positive, since a bridge loan until the January transition would prevent a collapse of the automakers until new policy is established. No guarantees, but perhaps this will light the fire under a Santa Claus rally for a short time, and later we can deal with the bad economic news!

 

[coolhand]

Since I do not enter my trades on the tracker, here is my current YTD performance:

YTD: -16.2%

I am ahead of each fund by these amounts:

C: 22.14%
S: 24.25%
I: 27.49%

So far in December, I've picked up a little over 2% on the C fund, which is how I measure my performance.