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coolhand's Account Talk
- Thread starter coolhand
- Start date
coolhand
Well-known member
The general trend continued today as the S&P rose modestly while the DWCPF was thrown for a moderate loss.
Price on the S&P has traded not far North of 4080 for 3 days now, so there does seem to be some resistance in this area. It may be near time for a pullback in this index. Price on the DWCPF may have peaked for another lower higher, but price also closed on the 50 dma, which may (or may not) provide support. We'll have to see, but I am not particularly optimistic about it holding.
Breadth dipped, but remains bullish.
NAAIM reports tomorrow. I remain bullish on the S&P and neutral on the DWCPF.
Price on the S&P has traded not far North of 4080 for 3 days now, so there does seem to be some resistance in this area. It may be near time for a pullback in this index. Price on the DWCPF may have peaked for another lower higher, but price also closed on the 50 dma, which may (or may not) provide support. We'll have to see, but I am not particularly optimistic about it holding.
Breadth dipped, but remains bullish.
NAAIM reports tomorrow. I remain bullish on the S&P and neutral on the DWCPF.
coolhand
Well-known member
It was a relatively quiet day today with price staying in a somewhat limited range.
Price closed modestly lower on the S&P today and moderately higher on the DWCPF. Volume was lower than average, but not by a lot. Momentum continues to rise on both charts, but especially so on the S&P. So, the S&P remains decided bullish. I did not mention it yesterday, but don't forget the lower high on the DWCPF from about a month ago. I don't draw lines anymore, but you can visualize about where it runs. That's resistance and it's not far overhead.
Cumulative remains bullish.
So, nothing has changed. While the DWCPF is showing signs of life, until breaks out to the upside there is a chance the current attempt to rally higher will form another lower high. We may be close to that now. The S&P has not such problem and is hitting fresh all-time highs.
I remain bullish on the S&P, but neutral on the DWCPF.
Price closed modestly lower on the S&P today and moderately higher on the DWCPF. Volume was lower than average, but not by a lot. Momentum continues to rise on both charts, but especially so on the S&P. So, the S&P remains decided bullish. I did not mention it yesterday, but don't forget the lower high on the DWCPF from about a month ago. I don't draw lines anymore, but you can visualize about where it runs. That's resistance and it's not far overhead.
Cumulative remains bullish.
So, nothing has changed. While the DWCPF is showing signs of life, until breaks out to the upside there is a chance the current attempt to rally higher will form another lower high. We may be close to that now. The S&P has not such problem and is hitting fresh all-time highs.
I remain bullish on the S&P, but neutral on the DWCPF.
coolhand
Well-known member
The week has begun with an impressive rally in the S&P. The DWCPF moved higher as well, but the action was much less impressive.
Price on the DWCPF gapped fairly high at the open and was immediately met with significant selling pressure that took it back to neutral and even negative territory for a short while. The S&P was a much different story as price gapped at the open and rose higher for about 3 hours before going sideways; but it kept its gains. The S&P chart is certainly bullish at this point, but the DWCPF remains more questionable as to whether it will rejoin the S&P at fresh highs.
Cumulative breadth rose and remains bullish.
I am going from modestly bullish on the S&P to bullish, but will remain neutral on the DWCPF.
Price on the DWCPF gapped fairly high at the open and was immediately met with significant selling pressure that took it back to neutral and even negative territory for a short while. The S&P was a much different story as price gapped at the open and rose higher for about 3 hours before going sideways; but it kept its gains. The S&P chart is certainly bullish at this point, but the DWCPF remains more questionable as to whether it will rejoin the S&P at fresh highs.
Cumulative breadth rose and remains bullish.
I am going from modestly bullish on the S&P to bullish, but will remain neutral on the DWCPF.
coolhand
Well-known member
The bulls took control of the action today as price on both the DWCPF and S&P gapped higher at the open and remained at elevated levels throughout the trading session.
The S&P easily posted a fresh all-time high, while the DWCPF saw price close above its 50 dma for the first time in the last 8 trading sessions. Momentum ticked higher on both charts. Is this the breakout we're looking for? It might be with the S&P, but the DWCPF has more work to do as resistance looms not terribly far above its closing price.
Breadth looked very good on the day and signal is solidly bullish right now.
NAAIM came in solidly neutral. That's not much help at all; especially with today's positive action.
It does remain a bull market and I think its heavily coated in Teflon. Still, while the S&P has marched higher within a rising channel, the DWCPF broke its channel several weeks ago and has been moving more sideways (within a range) for about 6 weeks now. So, we don't have an even market at the moment. Maybe the DWCPF plays catch-up. Maybe it doesn't. It's too soon to be sure. With a neutral NAAIM reading I think I'd give this market some room and not get overly bulled up on the positive action we got today. I continue to favor the S&P over the DWCPF until proven otherwise.
I am going to remain neutral with a modest bullish sentiment toward the S&P.
The S&P easily posted a fresh all-time high, while the DWCPF saw price close above its 50 dma for the first time in the last 8 trading sessions. Momentum ticked higher on both charts. Is this the breakout we're looking for? It might be with the S&P, but the DWCPF has more work to do as resistance looms not terribly far above its closing price.
Breadth looked very good on the day and signal is solidly bullish right now.
NAAIM came in solidly neutral. That's not much help at all; especially with today's positive action.
It does remain a bull market and I think its heavily coated in Teflon. Still, while the S&P has marched higher within a rising channel, the DWCPF broke its channel several weeks ago and has been moving more sideways (within a range) for about 6 weeks now. So, we don't have an even market at the moment. Maybe the DWCPF plays catch-up. Maybe it doesn't. It's too soon to be sure. With a neutral NAAIM reading I think I'd give this market some room and not get overly bulled up on the positive action we got today. I continue to favor the S&P over the DWCPF until proven otherwise.
I am going to remain neutral with a modest bullish sentiment toward the S&P.
coolhand
Well-known member
NAAIM remains neutral. I want to point out that the bears are not showing any levered positions. I also want to point out the bulls have cut their leverage by half. That's actually been the case for 4 weeks now. So, the neutral reading is very much that. It certainly seems apparent that they are collectively watching for clues about something (or multiple somethings) to get a better sense of where the market might be headed.
coolhand
Well-known member
The bulls notched a win today, but it didn't clear up the fog around this market.
Price on the S&P attempted an upside break through resistance, but got pushed back for a modest gain overall. Price on the DWCPF came very close to testing resistance at its 50 dma. It closed for a decent gain on the day. Momentum and strength are not inspiring on either chart.
Cumulative breadth ticked higher and the signal is technically bullish, but like price, it's not inspiring.
NAAIM's neutral stance (as well as our own) would seem consistent to this point with market action as the market gets ready to head into Thursday. We'll get a fresh NAAIM reading around mid-day.
I remain neutral overall and modestly bullish on the S&P.
Price on the S&P attempted an upside break through resistance, but got pushed back for a modest gain overall. Price on the DWCPF came very close to testing resistance at its 50 dma. It closed for a decent gain on the day. Momentum and strength are not inspiring on either chart.
Cumulative breadth ticked higher and the signal is technically bullish, but like price, it's not inspiring.
NAAIM's neutral stance (as well as our own) would seem consistent to this point with market action as the market gets ready to head into Thursday. We'll get a fresh NAAIM reading around mid-day.
I remain neutral overall and modestly bullish on the S&P.
coolhand
Well-known member
It was another one of those up and down days today that saw a mixed close.
Volume was on the lighter side today. Price backed off the peak a bit more on the S&P. I get the impression that this index may be coiling for a upside break through resistance. The DWCPF bounced, but that does little to change the picture for this index, which remains below the 50 dma, but also above support in the 2020 area. Momentum is now flat on both charts, however momentum is still in positive territory on the S&P, but negative on the DWCPF.
Breadth ticked higher, but that doesn't change much. It's still rather neutral overall.
I remain neutral overall and modestly bullish on the S&P.
Volume was on the lighter side today. Price backed off the peak a bit more on the S&P. I get the impression that this index may be coiling for a upside break through resistance. The DWCPF bounced, but that does little to change the picture for this index, which remains below the 50 dma, but also above support in the 2020 area. Momentum is now flat on both charts, however momentum is still in positive territory on the S&P, but negative on the DWCPF.
Breadth ticked higher, but that doesn't change much. It's still rather neutral overall.
I remain neutral overall and modestly bullish on the S&P.
coolhand
Well-known member
Today's action changed little in terms of market character. In particular, small caps got hit early in the trading session and never recovered. The S&P also got hit early, but it bounced back to close near the neutral line.
On the S&P chart, we can see that price failed to push past resistance, but it didn't give up much ground either. Price on the DWCPF gave back all of Friday's gains and bit more. Support is not far below and I suspect price may test it again; maybe soon. Momentum is now rising on the S&P, but falling on the DWCPF.
Breadth dipped and is back to a neutral condition.
This week is the end of the quarter, which could mean some measure of volatility over the next day or 2. Just something to note.
I remain neutral overall and modestly bullish on the S&P, but that index needs to push through resistance or it could go the other way again.
On the S&P chart, we can see that price failed to push past resistance, but it didn't give up much ground either. Price on the DWCPF gave back all of Friday's gains and bit more. Support is not far below and I suspect price may test it again; maybe soon. Momentum is now rising on the S&P, but falling on the DWCPF.
Breadth dipped and is back to a neutral condition.
This week is the end of the quarter, which could mean some measure of volatility over the next day or 2. Just something to note.
I remain neutral overall and modestly bullish on the S&P, but that index needs to push through resistance or it could go the other way again.
coolhand
Well-known member
Friday saw a wild rally into the close, which capped a positive day overall, but depending on which fund you were exposed to you either had a good week or a not so good week as the C fund posted a solid gain, but the S fund was thrown for a hefty loss.
The good news is that the S&P is rallying hard off a successful test of support of its 50 dma. The S&P is also testing resistance at its all-time high. On the other hand, price on the DWCPF remains under its own 50 dma. Upward momentum is turning up, but it's not clear if it can be sustained; especially on the DWCPF.
Breadth advanced on Friday and is bullish.
Our TSP Talk sentiment came in neutral, so that matches the NAAIM reading in terms of sentiment. Given how much is happening around the world and its potential impact on the global markets, it's not surprising to see the bulls take a wait and see approach.
So, the picture remains mixed. We can see that small cap stocks on the whole are not particularly favored over larger cap stocks and that remains something to take in consideration when deciding on which funds to hold and how much. Rallies can be explosive and would likely favor small caps if perceived threats to the economic picture are diminished. But that remains to be seen.
I remain neutral overall, but I'm going to lean modestly bullish on the S&P 500.
The good news is that the S&P is rallying hard off a successful test of support of its 50 dma. The S&P is also testing resistance at its all-time high. On the other hand, price on the DWCPF remains under its own 50 dma. Upward momentum is turning up, but it's not clear if it can be sustained; especially on the DWCPF.
Breadth advanced on Friday and is bullish.
Our TSP Talk sentiment came in neutral, so that matches the NAAIM reading in terms of sentiment. Given how much is happening around the world and its potential impact on the global markets, it's not surprising to see the bulls take a wait and see approach.
So, the picture remains mixed. We can see that small cap stocks on the whole are not particularly favored over larger cap stocks and that remains something to take in consideration when deciding on which funds to hold and how much. Rallies can be explosive and would likely favor small caps if perceived threats to the economic picture are diminished. But that remains to be seen.
I remain neutral overall, but I'm going to lean modestly bullish on the S&P 500.
coolhand
Well-known member
coolhand
Well-known member
Battles over control are never absent from the global landscape. Those battles are always present, even if we don't see direct evidence of the battle (vice accident).
Cactus
Well-known member
Do you think the blockage was deliberate? Egypt or someone else flexing their muscle maybe?
If you control the world's trade you are a power to be reckoned with.
coolhand
Well-known member
The bears had their way for the morning session, but the bulls got back in the game in the afternoon to close out the day with moderate gains.
It remains a mixed picture with price on the DWCPF still under the 50 dma and above that key average on the S&P. Momentum has yet to turn back up. Volume has been average. Since the market turned today, it may be ready for the upswing. We'll have to see.
Breadth turned up and is now in a neutral condition.
NAAIM came in neutral today. They are not shorting much, but there's reason for the neutrality. The obvious one is inflation, but now we also have a very touchy situation in the Suez Canal. This is a big deal, but how the market reacts to it (over time) remains to be seen. I suspect it may not be cleared for a little while. I've no doubt there is more under the surface of this situation than the ship's bilge and it's something I'll be keeping an eye on.
I remain neutral.
It remains a mixed picture with price on the DWCPF still under the 50 dma and above that key average on the S&P. Momentum has yet to turn back up. Volume has been average. Since the market turned today, it may be ready for the upswing. We'll have to see.
Breadth turned up and is now in a neutral condition.
NAAIM came in neutral today. They are not shorting much, but there's reason for the neutrality. The obvious one is inflation, but now we also have a very touchy situation in the Suez Canal. This is a big deal, but how the market reacts to it (over time) remains to be seen. I suspect it may not be cleared for a little while. I've no doubt there is more under the surface of this situation than the ship's bilge and it's something I'll be keeping an eye on.
I remain neutral.
coolhand
Well-known member
The situation at the Suez Canal is not simply unfortunate. It would anticipate that it will have a negative impact (fairly quickly) on global trade and quite possibly the financial markets. Definitely something to watch.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/might-take-weeks-suez-canal-still-closed-enormous-beached-whale-ship-remains-stuck
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/might-take-weeks-suez-canal-still-closed-enormous-beached-whale-ship-remains-stuck
coolhand
Well-known member
The selling continued on Wednesday with small caps helping to lead the way.
Price on the DWCPF closed at or near the previous low from early March; and it closed pretty much at the low of the day. Volume was average (for the S&P). Price on the S&P also closed at the low of the day, but it has yet to test support at the 50 dma. Momentum continues to fall on both charts, but is more pronounced on the DWCPF.
Cumulative breadth dipped, but not as much as one might expect given the overall negative action. Still, it's a bearish signal.
So, the charts are showing some technical damage; especially the DWCPF with support broken at the 50 dma. We also have a bearish cumulative breadth on the NYSE. Now, things are exactly falling apart as yet, but there has been talk of inflation and I personally think we may already be seeing the early stages of it. This is a problem that will only get worse if it continues on its current course. Remember, this bullish ship has gone a long, long way and it won't stop on a dime. The money is going to continue to play as it has until it becomes painfully obvious that something really is changing. I'm making an assumption here regarding inflation. This has yet to be proven, but it needs to be watched.
Tomorrow, we get a fresh read from NAAIM. Keep in mind that they were bullish last week, but not overly bullish. We have no idea how these managers are positioned aside from their sentiment (where are they allocating their money?). I'm talking about heat maps (where money is flowing to and from). It's still too soon to get overly bearish, but our antennas should be up.
I am going neutral from modestly bullish.
Price on the DWCPF closed at or near the previous low from early March; and it closed pretty much at the low of the day. Volume was average (for the S&P). Price on the S&P also closed at the low of the day, but it has yet to test support at the 50 dma. Momentum continues to fall on both charts, but is more pronounced on the DWCPF.
Cumulative breadth dipped, but not as much as one might expect given the overall negative action. Still, it's a bearish signal.
So, the charts are showing some technical damage; especially the DWCPF with support broken at the 50 dma. We also have a bearish cumulative breadth on the NYSE. Now, things are exactly falling apart as yet, but there has been talk of inflation and I personally think we may already be seeing the early stages of it. This is a problem that will only get worse if it continues on its current course. Remember, this bullish ship has gone a long, long way and it won't stop on a dime. The money is going to continue to play as it has until it becomes painfully obvious that something really is changing. I'm making an assumption here regarding inflation. This has yet to be proven, but it needs to be watched.
Tomorrow, we get a fresh read from NAAIM. Keep in mind that they were bullish last week, but not overly bullish. We have no idea how these managers are positioned aside from their sentiment (where are they allocating their money?). I'm talking about heat maps (where money is flowing to and from). It's still too soon to get overly bearish, but our antennas should be up.
I am going neutral from modestly bullish.
coolhand
Well-known member
In yesterday's post, I said that there wasn't much to read into the mixed action to start the week. I felt that the indicators as they were yesterday did not appear to be particularly bearish and that I though we might go sideways with an upside bias as the week progressed. Then Tuesday happened.
I am sure it has not escaped anyone's attention that the DWCPF is struggling. It appeared that price had successfully tested support and that since the S&P actually advanced on Monday, I was not expecting support to fail. Not with NAAIM leaning bullish. But anything is possible in this market. It would appear the DWCPF had a small bear flag in play. Price has now closed below support at the 50 dma. The S&P is not having the problems the DWCPF is having. While it did close lower, it didn't lose nearly as much and price remains above the 50 dma. And this index only a week ago posted a new all-time high. Momentum is turned down on both charts.
Cumulative breadth fell and is now bearish. That has usually meant a turn higher is not far off.
While bears got the better of the bulls today, I still have no reason to get particularly bearish (all things considered). Obviously, small caps are under attack, while larger caps are generally holding up. Perhaps small caps (S fund) is providing a buying opportunity for those who are positioned to take advantage, but that doesn't answer the question of how long small caps will remain under pressure. I am not sure of the answer given current market dynamics. However, if inflation takes hold, it would stand to reason that small caps would feel the heat. It may be time to think about diversification until the playing field gets a bit more clear.
I remain modestly bullish, but am watching carefully.
I am sure it has not escaped anyone's attention that the DWCPF is struggling. It appeared that price had successfully tested support and that since the S&P actually advanced on Monday, I was not expecting support to fail. Not with NAAIM leaning bullish. But anything is possible in this market. It would appear the DWCPF had a small bear flag in play. Price has now closed below support at the 50 dma. The S&P is not having the problems the DWCPF is having. While it did close lower, it didn't lose nearly as much and price remains above the 50 dma. And this index only a week ago posted a new all-time high. Momentum is turned down on both charts.
Cumulative breadth fell and is now bearish. That has usually meant a turn higher is not far off.
While bears got the better of the bulls today, I still have no reason to get particularly bearish (all things considered). Obviously, small caps are under attack, while larger caps are generally holding up. Perhaps small caps (S fund) is providing a buying opportunity for those who are positioned to take advantage, but that doesn't answer the question of how long small caps will remain under pressure. I am not sure of the answer given current market dynamics. However, if inflation takes hold, it would stand to reason that small caps would feel the heat. It may be time to think about diversification until the playing field gets a bit more clear.
I remain modestly bullish, but am watching carefully.
coolhand
Well-known member
The week started out mixed, with the S&P 500 advancing moderately and the DWCPF dipping modestly.
Price on the S&P appears to be back on the upswing, but the DWCPF remains just above its 50 dma.
Cumulative breadth pulled back a tad and while it is still technically bullish, its very close to neutral.
There is not much to read into today's market activity. We'll have to see what the rest of the week brings. I am not looking for any downside surprises, but it's possible the market goes sideways with perhaps a modest upside bias.
I remain modestly bullish.
Price on the S&P appears to be back on the upswing, but the DWCPF remains just above its 50 dma.
Cumulative breadth pulled back a tad and while it is still technically bullish, its very close to neutral.
There is not much to read into today's market activity. We'll have to see what the rest of the week brings. I am not looking for any downside surprises, but it's possible the market goes sideways with perhaps a modest upside bias.
I remain modestly bullish.
coolhand
Well-known member
Friday's mixed action capped a week that started out on the bullish side, but ended with a weekly loss for both the S&P and the DWCPF. The weekly losses were limited, which may be an indication that a bottom is near. This is also possible given the latest NAAIM reading.
Price on both charts remain above its 50 dma. The DWCPF in particular saw price test that key average (successfully). We'll have to see now if support continues to hold. Momentum is falling, but not quickly.
Breadth ticked up a bit and remains bullish, but under pressure.
As anticipated, our TSP Talk sentiment survey came in neutral. Thursday we got a bullish NAAIM reading, though not wildly so.
As the indicators stand currently, I don't see anything of major concern. Apparently, NAAIM doesn't either. For these reasons, I am maintaining a modestly bullish sentiment.
Price on both charts remain above its 50 dma. The DWCPF in particular saw price test that key average (successfully). We'll have to see now if support continues to hold. Momentum is falling, but not quickly.
Breadth ticked up a bit and remains bullish, but under pressure.
As anticipated, our TSP Talk sentiment survey came in neutral. Thursday we got a bullish NAAIM reading, though not wildly so.
As the indicators stand currently, I don't see anything of major concern. Apparently, NAAIM doesn't either. For these reasons, I am maintaining a modestly bullish sentiment.
