DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
Hope you have a great time off CH! Gonna definitely miss you! :smile:
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coolhand's Account Talk
- Thread starter coolhand
- Start date
CH, I'm going to miss your posts as well... hey, be careful out there!
tom4jean
Member
coolhand
Well-known member
The bulls managed to capture some gains today, but it wasn't an even day.
Price on the S&P was only up modestly. It is pushing against resistance and there's still more above today's close. Price on the DWCPF actually pushed past and closed above its 50 dma. That's a big deal, but it's only one day and there is more resistance above. Momentum is rising on both charts, but strength isn't exactly robust.
Cumulative breadth posted an all-time high on the NYSE on today's rally.
Well, the market is slowly recapturing ground on the upside. The fact that the DWCPF recaptured its 50 dma is a big win, but it needs to hold and the index still has more potential resistance to contend with. The S&P is also grappling with resistance. Still, it's hard to be bearish right now (wary is okay).
I am going from bearish to neutral. NAAIM reports tomorrow.
Price on the S&P was only up modestly. It is pushing against resistance and there's still more above today's close. Price on the DWCPF actually pushed past and closed above its 50 dma. That's a big deal, but it's only one day and there is more resistance above. Momentum is rising on both charts, but strength isn't exactly robust.
Cumulative breadth posted an all-time high on the NYSE on today's rally.
Well, the market is slowly recapturing ground on the upside. The fact that the DWCPF recaptured its 50 dma is a big win, but it needs to hold and the index still has more potential resistance to contend with. The S&P is also grappling with resistance. Still, it's hard to be bearish right now (wary is okay).
I am going from bearish to neutral. NAAIM reports tomorrow.
coolhand
Well-known member
It was a choppy back and forth kind of day on Tuesday, but one that had the bulls slowly lose ground into the close.
So far, resistance is holding on both charts. Momentum, which was rising, stalled. It doesn't mean a whole lot just yet other than the bulls have some work to do to push price through those resistance areas.
Breadth dipped, but remains bullish.
It's still a game of wait and see. Is resistance going to hold or will the bulls find a way to push through it?
I remain modestly bearish for now.
So far, resistance is holding on both charts. Momentum, which was rising, stalled. It doesn't mean a whole lot just yet other than the bulls have some work to do to push price through those resistance areas.
Breadth dipped, but remains bullish.
It's still a game of wait and see. Is resistance going to hold or will the bulls find a way to push through it?
I remain modestly bearish for now.
coolhand
Well-known member
Monday's action certainly had a bullish feel to it. But can it continue? Let's look at the charts.
Price on the S&P closed in an area of resistance. There is more resistance above, but how stiff I cannot say. Price on the DWCPF poked above the 50 dma, but closed under it once more. As long as price has been under that key average, getting above it may not be an easy task for the bulls. But we're about to find out very soon whether they can pull it off or not. Momentum is turning up, but I can't get excited about that just yet.
Cumulative breadth hit a fresh all-time high. It's a bullish chart right now and that does have some weight of sorts.
Which makes me wonder what the smart money is thinking right now. They were bearish 2 weeks in a row and it is safe to say that the 2 charts above are not as yet giving the all's clear. The late day swoon, while not overly significant, could be a tell for Tuesday's action so we'll have to see if that's the case.
I am going to remain bearish (I really don't like being bearish) until this market, and especially the DWCPF, can prove that price can be driven higher. It may not be long now before we know the answer to that question.
Price on the S&P closed in an area of resistance. There is more resistance above, but how stiff I cannot say. Price on the DWCPF poked above the 50 dma, but closed under it once more. As long as price has been under that key average, getting above it may not be an easy task for the bulls. But we're about to find out very soon whether they can pull it off or not. Momentum is turning up, but I can't get excited about that just yet.
Cumulative breadth hit a fresh all-time high. It's a bullish chart right now and that does have some weight of sorts.
Which makes me wonder what the smart money is thinking right now. They were bearish 2 weeks in a row and it is safe to say that the 2 charts above are not as yet giving the all's clear. The late day swoon, while not overly significant, could be a tell for Tuesday's action so we'll have to see if that's the case.
I am going to remain bearish (I really don't like being bearish) until this market, and especially the DWCPF, can prove that price can be driven higher. It may not be long now before we know the answer to that question.
coolhand
Well-known member
Forgot to post last week's action. Quickly, the market saw the S&P close out the week with a somewhat modest (weekly) loss, while the DWCPF had a moderate gain. The charts didn't change much, but price on the DWCPF is testing resistance at its 50 dma. Momentum may be starting to turn up.
Cumulative breadth rose on Friday and is bullish.
We know that NAAIM is bearish, but the latest TSP Talk survey shows us bulled up moderately.
I remain bearish (modestly), but I have a feeling we may see some upside in the short term.
Cumulative breadth rose on Friday and is bullish.
We know that NAAIM is bearish, but the latest TSP Talk survey shows us bulled up moderately.
I remain bearish (modestly), but I have a feeling we may see some upside in the short term.
coolhand
Well-known member
The bulls pushed the market higher on Thursday, but I don't think we have any more clarity about the days and weeks ahead.
Both the S&P and DWCPF posted good gains. Price remained above the 50 dma on the S&P, but has yet to retest resistance at that level on the DWCPF. Momentum is trying to turn up, but it's been a struggle. RSI is near neutral on both charts.
Cumulative breadth poked back over the 21 day EMA, which technically puts it back to a bullish condition, but it's been almost 2 weeks since this signal hit a fresh peak, so I can't get overly excited about further upside potential just yet.
NAAIM came in largely unchanged, which means they remain bearish. You might think they would be shorting the market with this reading, but they are not positioning themselves for bearish action with any conviction, so they seem to be taking a wait and see approach without taking unnecessary risk.
So, both charts continue to paint a different picture. While the S&P remains technically bullish, the DWCPF remains neutral. It can go either way, but the smart money is not leaning toward a bullish outcome. They are also not confident enough in their sentiment to bet on it.
Like NAAIM, I remain bearish, but not with significant conviction.
Both the S&P and DWCPF posted good gains. Price remained above the 50 dma on the S&P, but has yet to retest resistance at that level on the DWCPF. Momentum is trying to turn up, but it's been a struggle. RSI is near neutral on both charts.
Cumulative breadth poked back over the 21 day EMA, which technically puts it back to a bullish condition, but it's been almost 2 weeks since this signal hit a fresh peak, so I can't get overly excited about further upside potential just yet.
NAAIM came in largely unchanged, which means they remain bearish. You might think they would be shorting the market with this reading, but they are not positioning themselves for bearish action with any conviction, so they seem to be taking a wait and see approach without taking unnecessary risk.
So, both charts continue to paint a different picture. While the S&P remains technically bullish, the DWCPF remains neutral. It can go either way, but the smart money is not leaning toward a bullish outcome. They are also not confident enough in their sentiment to bet on it.
Like NAAIM, I remain bearish, but not with significant conviction.
coolhand
Well-known member
Well, Wednesday's market trading didn't do much for the bullish argument. The market didn't fall apart, it just felt like it for a little while. But while it didn't fall apart, it did close out with moderate losses.
Price on the S&P tested its 50 dma again and bounced back to close over that key average. Price on the DWCPF fell as well and remains within its trading range (the lower part of it), but also below its 50 dma. That index seems to be gearing up for another test of horizontal support. Momentum remains negative.
Cumulative breadth fell and flipped modestly bearish today.
So, the market continues to get hit with weakness, but also continues to dance more or less in a sideways pattern. It sure is beginning to feel like a top may be in, but it's still a bit early to make that call (price will almost certainly be lower before that call might be made).
I remain bearish.
Price on the S&P tested its 50 dma again and bounced back to close over that key average. Price on the DWCPF fell as well and remains within its trading range (the lower part of it), but also below its 50 dma. That index seems to be gearing up for another test of horizontal support. Momentum remains negative.
Cumulative breadth fell and flipped modestly bearish today.
So, the market continues to get hit with weakness, but also continues to dance more or less in a sideways pattern. It sure is beginning to feel like a top may be in, but it's still a bit early to make that call (price will almost certainly be lower before that call might be made).
I remain bearish.
coolhand
Well-known member
The answer is different for each person. If one is bearish, you want to have limited (maybe none for some folks) stock exposure. G fund is safer than F fund, but safe is a relative term. Even the G fund can be risky under certain circumstances. A global financial meltdown could easily have a negative impact on just about everything (not so sure about precious metals (real money)).
coolhand
Well-known member
Certainly adds more credence to the bearish case. Thanks for posting.
coolhand
Well-known member
The S&P struggled most of the day to hold its neutral line before succumbing to selling pressure as the market was nearing the close. The DWCPF showed relative strength trading well above its own neutral line until that same late day selling pressure pushed price into negative territory at the end of the trading day. Both indexes lost ground, but the action did not make the future any easier to discern.
Weakness over the past 2 days has stalled a rally that started late last week. That rally (last week) was a response to significant selling pressure earlier in the week that saw the smart money go bearish last Thursday. Yes, support is holding at the 50 dma for the S&P and at horizontal support for the DWCPF, which is good, but momentum remains negative on both charts. RSI is also weak to neutral.
Cumulative breadth, which has been bullish the past few trading days, dipped on today's negative action, but does still remain technically bullish. But has the signal stalled? Is it rolling over right now? It might be and it might not.
So, the action is beginning to put into question the voracity of the end-of-week rally last week. NAAIM being bearish should certainly be cause for some concern if you are a bull.
The bottom line is that it remains a mixed picture and you can latch onto the bullish aspects of the action or the bearish aspects depending on how you want to interpret the signals. But don't forget the sideways trading pattern on the DWCPF that has gone on for months. It may yet prove to be the proverbial canary in the coalmine.
I remain guardedly bearish (guardedly because I can change my mind if the action warrants such).
Weakness over the past 2 days has stalled a rally that started late last week. That rally (last week) was a response to significant selling pressure earlier in the week that saw the smart money go bearish last Thursday. Yes, support is holding at the 50 dma for the S&P and at horizontal support for the DWCPF, which is good, but momentum remains negative on both charts. RSI is also weak to neutral.
Cumulative breadth, which has been bullish the past few trading days, dipped on today's negative action, but does still remain technically bullish. But has the signal stalled? Is it rolling over right now? It might be and it might not.
So, the action is beginning to put into question the voracity of the end-of-week rally last week. NAAIM being bearish should certainly be cause for some concern if you are a bull.
The bottom line is that it remains a mixed picture and you can latch onto the bullish aspects of the action or the bearish aspects depending on how you want to interpret the signals. But don't forget the sideways trading pattern on the DWCPF that has gone on for months. It may yet prove to be the proverbial canary in the coalmine.
I remain guardedly bearish (guardedly because I can change my mind if the action warrants such).
coolhand
Well-known member
Friday's big rally did not carry over to Monday as price fell back somewhat modestly.
Not much was proven by Monday's action so we'll have to see how the balance of the week unfolds.
Cumulative breadth had an up-tick and remains bullish.
I don't have much to say after Monday's action. It is still a guessing game what price is going to do in the short term. I remain guardedly bearish for now.
Not much was proven by Monday's action so we'll have to see how the balance of the week unfolds.
Cumulative breadth had an up-tick and remains bullish.
I don't have much to say after Monday's action. It is still a guessing game what price is going to do in the short term. I remain guardedly bearish for now.
coolhand
Well-known member
Friday's trading session saw the bulls rally the market hard, which erased a good deal of the earlier losses, but not all of the losses. The S&P and DWCPF both fell more than 1% on the week. Not bad, considering.
We can see that price on the S&P bounced near its 50 dma and retraced more than half of its losses earlier in the week. It's back in its trading range again. Momentum is trying to turn up. The chart itself does not look all that bad from a technical standpoint. Price on the DWCPF also erased more than half of its losses, but this index is a little different because price remains below its 50 dma. This index remains a possible warning of bigger problems for the market down the road if it doesn't recapture a bullish stance; and it's a long way from doing that without some serious rally time. Momentum is trying to turn back up on this chart too.
Cumulative breadth bounced hard and is back to a bullish configuration.
Our TSP Talk sentiment came in neutral overall. I said that the previous one was neutral, but after looking at last week's reading again I'd say it was more like modestly bullish. That doesn't change anything, I just want to update my perception of the reading.
NAAIM came in decidedly bearish and that cannot be taken lightly. Yes, they may flip bullish again quickly if the action in the market dictates such, but it's a guessing game of sorts what they are thinking in between readings.
So, we have a mixed picture. The S&P rallied smartly off support at its 50 dma, but the DWCPF remains below that key average. I keep wondering if this a canary in the coalmine. We do have a bullish breadth reading again, which is usually a solid indicator.
You can get bullish on this picture and justify it, but you can get bearing and justify that too. It is not unusual for a snap back rally to occur after a hard sell-off. But this is also still a bull market. The question is, is this bull market running on empty?
I cannot get bullish yet on this collective data. The snap back rally may or may not hold. At best I can only be neutral right now because of the struggling DWCPF and a bearish NAAIM. The market could steady itself and appear to be doing at least somewhat well in the short term, but that doesn't mean all is well. Remember, the big money doesn't usually get caught on the wrong side of the market and their pockets are deeper than ours. They can rally this market to trap the bulls and then send it lower (not saying they will).
I am going to remain bearish for now, but that could change early next week depending on how the market trades.
We can see that price on the S&P bounced near its 50 dma and retraced more than half of its losses earlier in the week. It's back in its trading range again. Momentum is trying to turn up. The chart itself does not look all that bad from a technical standpoint. Price on the DWCPF also erased more than half of its losses, but this index is a little different because price remains below its 50 dma. This index remains a possible warning of bigger problems for the market down the road if it doesn't recapture a bullish stance; and it's a long way from doing that without some serious rally time. Momentum is trying to turn back up on this chart too.
Cumulative breadth bounced hard and is back to a bullish configuration.
Our TSP Talk sentiment came in neutral overall. I said that the previous one was neutral, but after looking at last week's reading again I'd say it was more like modestly bullish. That doesn't change anything, I just want to update my perception of the reading.
NAAIM came in decidedly bearish and that cannot be taken lightly. Yes, they may flip bullish again quickly if the action in the market dictates such, but it's a guessing game of sorts what they are thinking in between readings.
So, we have a mixed picture. The S&P rallied smartly off support at its 50 dma, but the DWCPF remains below that key average. I keep wondering if this a canary in the coalmine. We do have a bullish breadth reading again, which is usually a solid indicator.
You can get bullish on this picture and justify it, but you can get bearing and justify that too. It is not unusual for a snap back rally to occur after a hard sell-off. But this is also still a bull market. The question is, is this bull market running on empty?
I cannot get bullish yet on this collective data. The snap back rally may or may not hold. At best I can only be neutral right now because of the struggling DWCPF and a bearish NAAIM. The market could steady itself and appear to be doing at least somewhat well in the short term, but that doesn't mean all is well. Remember, the big money doesn't usually get caught on the wrong side of the market and their pockets are deeper than ours. They can rally this market to trap the bulls and then send it lower (not saying they will).
I am going to remain bearish for now, but that could change early next week depending on how the market trades.
coolhand
Well-known member
The bulls bounced the market on Thursday, but it wasn't without some degree of challenge from the bears.
Price on the S&P remained above its 50 dma, but the retrace was limited given the extent of the selling. The market often bounces after some hard selling, but for right now it's only a bounce. Price on the DWCPF also bounced, but it did probe lower around mid-day. Momentum remains bearish.
Cumulative breadth also bounced, but remains bearish for now.
NAAIM wasted no time getting bearish in this week's reading, which plunged hard. I expected to see a bearish reading, which was one of the reasons I went bearish without waiting for confirmation from this group of money managers.
For the moment, price on both charts is showing support is holding at the 50 dma on the S&P and horizontal support on the DWCPF. My personal feeling is that support will fail. I don't know that, but with a fresh bearish reading from NAAIM and lots of market concerning news floating around, I'm not sure the teflon is going to hold up. We could continue to see a push by the bulls to drive price back up, but it may not be successful. The pressure really didn't start the past few days, it started months ago on the DWCPF. The big money needs to time to get out of the way in as quiet a way as possible (they don't want to alarm you). Don't expect them to be holding the bag if this market decides to head South again.
It's too soon to consider getting bullish again, in my opinion. We are also in the weaker part of the yearly cycle (go away in May). I am going to watch from the sidelines for now. I remain bearish.
Price on the S&P remained above its 50 dma, but the retrace was limited given the extent of the selling. The market often bounces after some hard selling, but for right now it's only a bounce. Price on the DWCPF also bounced, but it did probe lower around mid-day. Momentum remains bearish.
Cumulative breadth also bounced, but remains bearish for now.
NAAIM wasted no time getting bearish in this week's reading, which plunged hard. I expected to see a bearish reading, which was one of the reasons I went bearish without waiting for confirmation from this group of money managers.
For the moment, price on both charts is showing support is holding at the 50 dma on the S&P and horizontal support on the DWCPF. My personal feeling is that support will fail. I don't know that, but with a fresh bearish reading from NAAIM and lots of market concerning news floating around, I'm not sure the teflon is going to hold up. We could continue to see a push by the bulls to drive price back up, but it may not be successful. The pressure really didn't start the past few days, it started months ago on the DWCPF. The big money needs to time to get out of the way in as quiet a way as possible (they don't want to alarm you). Don't expect them to be holding the bag if this market decides to head South again.
It's too soon to consider getting bullish again, in my opinion. We are also in the weaker part of the yearly cycle (go away in May). I am going to watch from the sidelines for now. I remain bearish.
