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coolhand's Account Talk
- Thread starter coolhand
- Start date
coolhand
Well-known member
Last week didn't start out well for the bulls and as the week progressed it got a bit more dicey; especially for the DWCPF. But Friday saw a big rally that saw price on the S&P close at yet another all-time high.
So, while the S&P continues to push further to the upside, price on the DWCPF bounced off support at the 50 dma on Thursday and soared higher on Friday, but the rally fell short of retracing all of last week's losses. Still, the DWCPF only fell moderately for the week. Obviously, the S&P continues to be the more consistent index for the bulls.
Cumulative breadth went bearish for a day late last week, but bounced back into bullish territory with Friday's rally.
The TSP Talk sentiment survey came in a bit bearish this week, but not overly so. NAAIM came in modestly bullish. With Friday's rally, I wonder if any of those who voted their sentiment on TSP Talk would feel any different now?
I remain bullish on the S&P and neutral on the DWCPF.
Now I need to let you know that my time on this board is coming to an end (at least as a regular poster). I said at least 2 years ago that I was planning on discontinuing my posting soon, but that I did not know when. As it turns out, I kept going at least a year longer than I anticipated. I hope you learned how I interpret the charts and NAAIM as well as my breadth chart. It isn't all that hard and I don't get distracted by all the noise. I will pop in from time to time and if I do see anything of note, I'll let you know, but my daily posting is done. I wish you all the best.
So, while the S&P continues to push further to the upside, price on the DWCPF bounced off support at the 50 dma on Thursday and soared higher on Friday, but the rally fell short of retracing all of last week's losses. Still, the DWCPF only fell moderately for the week. Obviously, the S&P continues to be the more consistent index for the bulls.
Cumulative breadth went bearish for a day late last week, but bounced back into bullish territory with Friday's rally.
The TSP Talk sentiment survey came in a bit bearish this week, but not overly so. NAAIM came in modestly bullish. With Friday's rally, I wonder if any of those who voted their sentiment on TSP Talk would feel any different now?
I remain bullish on the S&P and neutral on the DWCPF.
Now I need to let you know that my time on this board is coming to an end (at least as a regular poster). I said at least 2 years ago that I was planning on discontinuing my posting soon, but that I did not know when. As it turns out, I kept going at least a year longer than I anticipated. I hope you learned how I interpret the charts and NAAIM as well as my breadth chart. It isn't all that hard and I don't get distracted by all the noise. I will pop in from time to time and if I do see anything of note, I'll let you know, but my daily posting is done. I wish you all the best.
coolhand
Well-known member
NAAIM tempered their bullishness today, but they remain bullish. There is little inclination for shorting among these money managers. I think that because they remain simply bullish and not overly bullish the downside should remain limited, but the upside could still be a grind.
coolhand
Well-known member
At this time, I cannot access stockcharts. I am getting a "403 Forbidden" page. Many of my other bookmarks are working fine, so I think it's just this site.
Nothing has changed as far as my sentiment or the technical indicators. Let's see if the website gets back up soon.
Nothing has changed as far as my sentiment or the technical indicators. Let's see if the website gets back up soon.
coolhand
Well-known member
After a pretty good run to the upside, the S&P finally had a pullback. But even the pullback closed well off the lows of the day. Sign of strength even in weakness? The DWCPf continued its struggles, but like the S&P it closed well off its lows of the day.
The S&P chart remains bullish, but we'll have to see if Tuesday's selling carries over into the rest of the week. Price on the DWCPF is fighting resistance again, but the afternoon rebound at least gives the bulls hope that the selling is temporary.
Breadth dipped, but remains bullish.
I remain bullish on the S&P and neutral on the DWCPF.
The S&P chart remains bullish, but we'll have to see if Tuesday's selling carries over into the rest of the week. Price on the DWCPF is fighting resistance again, but the afternoon rebound at least gives the bulls hope that the selling is temporary.
Breadth dipped, but remains bullish.
I remain bullish on the S&P and neutral on the DWCPF.
coolhand
Well-known member
The disparity between the S&P and the DWCPF continued last week, as the S&P soared to fresh all-time highs, while the DWCPF posted a moderate weekly loss. But that statement may be a bit misleading as the DWCPF remains a bullish chart overall and one that could join the S&P in fresh highs should money flows turn toward small caps with more consistency.
Of the 2 charts, it's obvious that the S&P is more bullish. Strength and momentum are rising on the S&P, while at the same time are falling modestly on the DWCPF.
Cumulative breadth closed out the week in good shape with the signal still above the rising EMAs.
As we begin a new trading week, NAAIM is solidly bullish having increased not just their bullish sentiment, but their leverage on the long side. The TSP Talk sentiment remained heavily bulled up.
I remain bullish on the S&P and neutral on the DWCPF.
Of the 2 charts, it's obvious that the S&P is more bullish. Strength and momentum are rising on the S&P, while at the same time are falling modestly on the DWCPF.
Cumulative breadth closed out the week in good shape with the signal still above the rising EMAs.
As we begin a new trading week, NAAIM is solidly bullish having increased not just their bullish sentiment, but their leverage on the long side. The TSP Talk sentiment remained heavily bulled up.
I remain bullish on the S&P and neutral on the DWCPF.
coolhand
Well-known member
So much for the downside and mixed closes. Thursday's trading saw both the S&P and DWCPF post gains.
Price on the S&P appeared to be losing steam until Thursday, when the bulls spiked it to the upside. The DWCPF broke its 3 day losing streak with a somewhat modest gain. Both charts are bullish, but the S&P would seem to be a more favorable index as upward momentum is rising on the S&P, but flat on the DWCPF.
Cumulative breadth rose and remains solidly bullish.
The latest NAAIM reading saw these money managers largely turn off their limited shorts and ramp up their long exposure. The reading is back to bullish.
When NAAIM went neutral the week before I said I wasn't expecting anything dramatic, but that the possibility for some selling had gone up. We did get some selling, but only in the DWCPF. We'll have to see now if the DWCPF can keep today's reversal going.
I am moving to bullish on the S&P, but will remain neutral on the DWCPF.
Price on the S&P appeared to be losing steam until Thursday, when the bulls spiked it to the upside. The DWCPF broke its 3 day losing streak with a somewhat modest gain. Both charts are bullish, but the S&P would seem to be a more favorable index as upward momentum is rising on the S&P, but flat on the DWCPF.
Cumulative breadth rose and remains solidly bullish.
The latest NAAIM reading saw these money managers largely turn off their limited shorts and ramp up their long exposure. The reading is back to bullish.
When NAAIM went neutral the week before I said I wasn't expecting anything dramatic, but that the possibility for some selling had gone up. We did get some selling, but only in the DWCPF. We'll have to see now if the DWCPF can keep today's reversal going.
I am moving to bullish on the S&P, but will remain neutral on the DWCPF.
coolhand
Well-known member
Yes. They got bulled up again. Green flag is out once again.
coolhand
Well-known member
Both the bulls and the bears have something to be happy about depending on the index you follow. The S&P made it 3 straight up days at the same time the DWCPF declined 3 days.
So, while the S&P continues to rise, the DWCPF continues to fall, but not enough to cause an serious technical damage (so far).
Breadth ticked higher on the day remains bullish.
Obviously, the 2 indexes won't continue to move opposite directions forever. A pullback by the S&P remains very possible. I remain neutral.
So, while the S&P continues to rise, the DWCPF continues to fall, but not enough to cause an serious technical damage (so far).
Breadth ticked higher on the day remains bullish.
Obviously, the 2 indexes won't continue to move opposite directions forever. A pullback by the S&P remains very possible. I remain neutral.
coolhand
Well-known member
The bulls started the morning session with gains right out the gate, but then the market chopped around for an hour or so before choppy lower the rest of the day. The close was mixed once again with the S&P posting a modest gain, while the DWCPF posted a modest loss.
So far, this market is showing resilience even with the modest selling in the DWCPF. It feels rather toppy to me, however. Upward momentum is positive, but not inspiring.
Breadth fell once more, but the signal still remains bullish.
It's been 3 trading days since we got the rather neutral NAAIM reading and I suppose that given the market has been mixed the past couple of trading days, we could say that to this point they were largely accurate. But if you are looking for a buying opportunity, you probably are not liking this resilience. But the week isn't over and the action seems tired, so maybe more weakness manifests. I remain neutral.
So far, this market is showing resilience even with the modest selling in the DWCPF. It feels rather toppy to me, however. Upward momentum is positive, but not inspiring.
Breadth fell once more, but the signal still remains bullish.
It's been 3 trading days since we got the rather neutral NAAIM reading and I suppose that given the market has been mixed the past couple of trading days, we could say that to this point they were largely accurate. But if you are looking for a buying opportunity, you probably are not liking this resilience. But the week isn't over and the action seems tired, so maybe more weakness manifests. I remain neutral.
coolhand
Well-known member
The new week started out mixed as Monday saw the S&P rise modestly, while the DWCPF fell modestly.
Both charts remain bullish. But with a neutral to modestly bullish NAAIM is some selling still on tap? We got some in the DWPCF, but is there more? Futures are rather flat right now.
Breadth fell and that may be a tell for more selling, but I can't be sure.
I'm going to remain neutral for now.
Both charts remain bullish. But with a neutral to modestly bullish NAAIM is some selling still on tap? We got some in the DWPCF, but is there more? Futures are rather flat right now.
Breadth fell and that may be a tell for more selling, but I can't be sure.
I'm going to remain neutral for now.
coolhand
Well-known member
After a week of selling the week before last, the bulls got busy and sent price on the S&P and DWCPF to new all-time highs last week. In fact, the DWCPF is now up 5 days straight after finally breaking through a multi-month trading channel.
The charts speak for the themselves as price slashed through resistance to close out the week with solid gains. And the DWCPF led the S&P, which is what we want to see if we're bullish (or want to be bullish).
Cumulative breadth ticked higher on Friday and remains bullish.
Our TSP Talk sentiment survey came in very bullish. I have said several times in the past that I don't treat our sentiment survey as a contrarian indicator. Especially if we're bullish in a bull market. Interestingly, NAAIM scaled back their bullishness to a neutral to modestly bullish reading. That still has me wondering if some selling is near. It isn't unusual after a change in NAAIM reading for the market to continue moving in its current short term direction for a day or two before reversing, so maybe we see some selling early next week. I also said I'm not looking for anything dramatic even if we get some selling. The problem is, we are bullish here on TSP Talk so the downside may not be much at all (if we get any short term).
I went neutral after the last NAAIM reading and I'm going to remain neutral for the time being. Let's see what the new week brings.
The charts speak for the themselves as price slashed through resistance to close out the week with solid gains. And the DWCPF led the S&P, which is what we want to see if we're bullish (or want to be bullish).
Cumulative breadth ticked higher on Friday and remains bullish.
Our TSP Talk sentiment survey came in very bullish. I have said several times in the past that I don't treat our sentiment survey as a contrarian indicator. Especially if we're bullish in a bull market. Interestingly, NAAIM scaled back their bullishness to a neutral to modestly bullish reading. That still has me wondering if some selling is near. It isn't unusual after a change in NAAIM reading for the market to continue moving in its current short term direction for a day or two before reversing, so maybe we see some selling early next week. I also said I'm not looking for anything dramatic even if we get some selling. The problem is, we are bullish here on TSP Talk so the downside may not be much at all (if we get any short term).
I went neutral after the last NAAIM reading and I'm going to remain neutral for the time being. Let's see what the new week brings.
coolhand
Well-known member
The chop was gone today as the bulls made it a one-way street as the averages closed out with solid gains on the day.
Price on the both charts broke through resistance and closed with fresh all-time highs. Momentum is rising as is strength, but it's too soon to get excited about the upside.
Cumulative breadth spiked to the upside and remains bullish.
Now, the fly in the ointment. NAAIM backed off their bullishness by a good bit. They didn't go bearish, but appear to have taken some profits as they are now collectively neutral to modestly bullish. Interesting. Do they know something? We're going to know soon enough. I'm not expecting anything dramatic, but I do think some selling may be coming our way soon. Now, having said that, futures are soaring. Something smells fishy to me.
I am now neutral. With NAAIM going neutral after fresh all-time highs and with futures soaring to boot, it would seem something may be about to happen, but I have no idea what. I just have this funny feeling with what I am seeing.
Price on the both charts broke through resistance and closed with fresh all-time highs. Momentum is rising as is strength, but it's too soon to get excited about the upside.
Cumulative breadth spiked to the upside and remains bullish.
Now, the fly in the ointment. NAAIM backed off their bullishness by a good bit. They didn't go bearish, but appear to have taken some profits as they are now collectively neutral to modestly bullish. Interesting. Do they know something? We're going to know soon enough. I'm not expecting anything dramatic, but I do think some selling may be coming our way soon. Now, having said that, futures are soaring. Something smells fishy to me.
I am now neutral. With NAAIM going neutral after fresh all-time highs and with futures soaring to boot, it would seem something may be about to happen, but I have no idea what. I just have this funny feeling with what I am seeing.
coolhand
Well-known member
It was a rather choppy affair today that culminated in a mixed close. The biggest takeaway for me on today's action is that resistance remains an obstacle.
Not much to read into today's charts. Price is bumping up against resistance and so far it's holding. Momentum is rather neutral.
Cumulative breadth ebbed higher just a tad and remains bullish. Unfortunately, it would not take a ton of selling pressure to flip this signal negative again. Just sayin'.
So, nothing has changed so far. Resistance continues to hold, but be we do have a bullish NAAIM, which suggests the market will break through to the upside sooner or later. It is not lost on me all the bad news out there; especially inflation as well as Fed jawboning. These are the current headlines to drive the wall of worry. Don't get wrong, these things are issues, but trying to leverage them for profit (timing wise) is quite difficult. That's why I point to NAAIM. But even they can wrong at times.
I am not sure if the market is going to punch through to the upside or head back down. The smart money is betting on the upside. That is usually a reasonable indicator to help make decisions.
I remain bullish the S&P 500 and neutral to modestly bullish the DWCPF. NAAIM reports tomorrow.
Not much to read into today's charts. Price is bumping up against resistance and so far it's holding. Momentum is rather neutral.
Cumulative breadth ebbed higher just a tad and remains bullish. Unfortunately, it would not take a ton of selling pressure to flip this signal negative again. Just sayin'.
So, nothing has changed so far. Resistance continues to hold, but be we do have a bullish NAAIM, which suggests the market will break through to the upside sooner or later. It is not lost on me all the bad news out there; especially inflation as well as Fed jawboning. These are the current headlines to drive the wall of worry. Don't get wrong, these things are issues, but trying to leverage them for profit (timing wise) is quite difficult. That's why I point to NAAIM. But even they can wrong at times.
I am not sure if the market is going to punch through to the upside or head back down. The smart money is betting on the upside. That is usually a reasonable indicator to help make decisions.
I remain bullish the S&P 500 and neutral to modestly bullish the DWCPF. NAAIM reports tomorrow.
