The stock market bounced back on Turnaround Tuesday, and now the question is whether we get a rare "V" bottom for those who have some cash and are looking to buy low, or if the rally is a gift to those who have been mired in the correction and are looking to sell a bounce. There was some late selling before the close, and holding onto solid gains was an accomplishment, suggesting the "get me out at any price" is gone for this round, but there was no FOMO buying yesterday with the rally ran out of steam late.
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I am going to keep this paragraph up this week as a reminder -- I am on vacation this week, and this is typical market action when I take a vacation. I have said this a few times already but it's uncanny how this happens whenever I try to take a little time off. I plan to make a brief update each day here, to keep myself informed in this environment. My email correspondence may be a little slow but I will attempt to check it a couple of times each day. My apologies in advance for any inconvenience.
The "get me out at any price" may be still be looming, because yesterday didn't fell like a major reversal yet and one day of decent gains does not erase the technical damage we've seen in the charts.
I posted this chart in the forum yesterday of what a capitulation looks like This was bitcoin on Monday - notice the high volume reversal.
We have not seen anything like that yet in the S&P 500 or any other stock index, which could tell us it is still coming, whether that's today or in the next week or two. It's not mandatory, but typical of a bottom.
I'm watching the indices and the charts tell me a lot of what I need to know, but I am not getting a great feel of the fear levels without listening to the pundits on TV. The best time to buy is when all, or most, of them are suggesting the worst is still to come. I'm most concerned when they are all in agreement that it is time to buy this decline, so that's the "feel" I am missing out on right now being on vacation.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) gained over 1% yesterday, but the lackluster close and the failure after the partial fill of the open gap, with the light trading volume, wasn't overly impressive. There are more gaps to fill above and the relief rally could give it another go, but there's now a lot of overhead resistance near 5450, if it can get that high.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow with another vacation-shortened commentary.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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I am going to keep this paragraph up this week as a reminder -- I am on vacation this week, and this is typical market action when I take a vacation. I have said this a few times already but it's uncanny how this happens whenever I try to take a little time off. I plan to make a brief update each day here, to keep myself informed in this environment. My email correspondence may be a little slow but I will attempt to check it a couple of times each day. My apologies in advance for any inconvenience.
The "get me out at any price" may be still be looming, because yesterday didn't fell like a major reversal yet and one day of decent gains does not erase the technical damage we've seen in the charts.
I posted this chart in the forum yesterday of what a capitulation looks like This was bitcoin on Monday - notice the high volume reversal.
We have not seen anything like that yet in the S&P 500 or any other stock index, which could tell us it is still coming, whether that's today or in the next week or two. It's not mandatory, but typical of a bottom.
I'm watching the indices and the charts tell me a lot of what I need to know, but I am not getting a great feel of the fear levels without listening to the pundits on TV. The best time to buy is when all, or most, of them are suggesting the worst is still to come. I'm most concerned when they are all in agreement that it is time to buy this decline, so that's the "feel" I am missing out on right now being on vacation.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) gained over 1% yesterday, but the lackluster close and the failure after the partial fill of the open gap, with the light trading volume, wasn't overly impressive. There are more gaps to fill above and the relief rally could give it another go, but there's now a lot of overhead resistance near 5450, if it can get that high.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow with another vacation-shortened commentary.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
