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This week's NAAIM reading shows the mean average rising a bit more than 1 pt. The reading was neutral last week (in my eyes) and that doesn't really change this week. The bears remain fully short and leveraged and the bulls remain fully long and leveraged. So, it looks like a wait and see game. Will next week's rate hike announcement be the catalyst to shake things up? We'll know before too much longer.
 
This week's NAAIM reading saw the mean average moved higher by more than 15pts. That puts it back into a solid bullish condition (from neutral). We do still have some bears who remain fully short and leveraged and of course the bulls remain fully long and leveraged. So, the reading suggests that we may have some more upside over the days ahead.
 
The latest NAAIM reading shows the mean average dipped less than 1 pt., which keeps the reading bullish. Nothing has changed as far the numbers go from last week, so I am anticipating the S&P will continue to find ways to keep rising over the next few days.
 
This week's NAAIM mean average shows the reading rising a little more than a quarter pt., which is meaningless. The reading remains bullish. The bears went from fully short and leveraged last week to just fully short this week. The bulls remain fully long and leveraged. So, these money managers continue to look higher.
 
This week's NAAIM reading shows the mean average rose almost 3.5 pts. That keeps the reading bullish. The bears, who were fully short and leveraged 2 weeks ago and then dropped to fully short without leverage last week are now 75% short with no leverage. Overall, these money managers are leaning fairly heavily to the long side with leverage. That means I anticipate that this market will continue to favor the bulls and perhaps be resilient to downside pressure.
 
The latest NAAIM reading shows the mean average fell about 10.5 pts. That still keeps the indicator bullish. The bears, who were 75% short with no leverage last week, are now fully short and leveraged. The bulls remain fully long and leveraged. So, there is a bit more interest in the short side for these money managers, but as I indicated they are bullish overall. We may see a bit more downside pressure over the days ahead, but the bulls still have control.
 
coolhand said:
This week's NAAIM reading shows the mean average rising a bit more than 1 pt. The reading was neutral last week (in my eyes) and that doesn't really change this week. The bears remain fully short and leveraged and the bulls remain fully long and leveraged. So, it looks like a wait and see game. Will next week's rate hike announcement be the catalyst to shake things up? We'll know before too much longer.
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The latest NAAIM reading shows a dip in the main average of about 2.5 pts. That is not enough of a drop to change the overall reading, which remains bullish. The bears continue to be fully short and leveraged and the bulls remain fully long and leveraged. Overall, the bulls remain favored, but there remains a chance for some downside action in the day to day market activity over the next few days.
 
The latest NAAIM reading shows the mean average rose a little less than 3.5 pts. That keeps the reading in a bullish posture. The only change in the numbers shows the the bears went from fully short and leveraged to just fully short (no leverage). So, once again the reading favors the bulls (for a few days).
 
The latest NAAIM reading shows the mean average rising almost 6 pts. That keeps the reading solidly bullish. The bears remain fully short with no leverage and the bulls remain fully long and fully leveraged. So, it looks the election added to the overall bullish disposition of these money managers. I suspect we may see fresh all-time highs in the weeks ahead as seasonality becomes more positive. That's not a prediction, but I think this market will continue to be frustrating for the bears overall; at least until the new administration formally takes control. And then what? Well, we have some time before then and things could always change.
 
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This week's NAAIM reading shows the mean average moving up more than 3 pts. That keeps the reading quite bullish. The bears remain fully short with NO leverage and the bulls are fully long and fully leveraged. So, the bulls continue to get the nod as long as this smart money remains bullish. There are not that many bears in this poll given the level of the reading.
 
coolhand said:
There are not that many bears in this poll given the level of the reading.
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I know this is a "smart money" indicator, but when there's no bears, who's left to buy?

I suppose the answer is the "dumb money" who are on the sidelines. The dumb money is leaning bullish per the CNN Fear Greed Index and some other surveys, but no real extremes yet, so that helps stocks climb the wall of worry. AAII is not quite 2 to 1 bulls to bears yet, but getting closer.

But when everyone is leaning one way, I get a little nervous.
 
Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!

This week's NAAIM reading saw the mean average rise more than 7.5 pts. It is now the most bullish it's been since early July. I've seen this number higher, but I don't think there is more than another 10 or 12 pts that it can rise. In any event, there are very few if any bears in this poll now. The bulls remain fully long and leveraged.

Generally, when many different sentiment polls get stretched to the upside, a reversal can manifest at some point. But sentiment, like most other indicators, can get stretched for longer periods of time than one may expect. I don't follow any other sentiment polls except this one and I have found it to be a great guide for decision making when combined with other indicators. Since this reading is stretched, we could see a pullback in the near term to shake things up, but it is difficult to make that call without other indicators to guide you.

One strategy is to take something off the table as a hedge for another buying opportunity and to limit losses on a reversal in the market. But a reversal may not come near term or be particularly deep if we get one, and we are approaching a seasonally positive time of year.

So, these are just some thoughts I wanted to share with you all. Enjoy the Holiday!
 
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The latest NAAIM reading shows the mean average falling about about 13.5 pts. That still keeps the reading solidly bullish. We had few, if any bears last week, but this week a few bears showed up. They are fully short, but NOT leveraged (less conviction). The bulls remain fully long and leveraged.

So, nothing has changed in a substantial way. The smart money remains bulled up and those bears that made an appearance are likely hedging their positions for any short-term selling pressure. The bulls remain in control as of now.
 
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This week's NAAIM reading shows the mean average rising more than 14 pts., which it pretty bullish. I don't know if there are any true bears or not, but the numbers show some bearish positions that are three quarters short (no leverage). This is practically meaningless with a reading as high as this one is, though there is still a bit more room to go higher. So, the bulls are pretty much all in, fully long and fully leveraged. It's been working to this point for them overall.
 
So, even after the recent sell-off the weekly NAAIM mean average only fell a bit less than 17 pts. It remains bullish; just not wildly bullish. A few more bears have shown up in the numbers and they are now fully short, but NOT leveraged. There is not a ton of conviction on the short side here. The bulls remain fully long and fully leveraged. It would seem that the NAAIM money managers do not generally believe that Santa will be denied this year.
 
tsptalk said:
Thanks! Do you know what day of the week this data is gathered?
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It's posted each Thursday, so they may have it on Wednesday, process it, and then post it Thursday. Just a guess on my part, but I think it makes sense.
 
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