coolhand's Account Talk

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Okay, after being bullish 4 straight weeks, the NAAIM mean average dropped about 24 pts. That now puts it in a neutral to modestly bullish posture. The numbers show that the bears remain fully short and leveraged, but I'm really not seeing an increase in the number of bears. The bulls remain long and leveraged and their numbers fell, which is the main reason the mean average fell. I'm thinking some of that money probably went to the sidelines (cash). I would say that we are now getting an initial yellow flag from this smart money reading. The only thing this data suggests is that caution is now creeping into the sentiment.

I am neutral on this reading.
 
The latest NAAIM reading shows the mean average rising about 17.5 pts and that puts the reading back into a bullish posture. The bears have gone from fully short and leveraged to just half short and no leverage. The bulls remain fully long and leveraged. But the party isn't happening across the board for the market. It's the S&P 500 that seems to be favored, which is where I think NAAIM does most of its trading. I am bullish once more, but primarily on the S&P 500.
 
The latest NAAIM reading dipped about 1 pt. this week, which is virtually meaningless. The mean average was bullish last week and remains bullish heading into a new week. The numbers show the bears going from half short with no leverage to fully short and fully leveraged. The bulls remain fully long and leveraged. There isn't much to glean from this information. It looks like the bears are trying to capture gains on any meaningful pullback in the short term, while the bulk of the money managers remain committed to the long and leveraged side of the market. As such, I myself remain bullish on the S&P 500 for the next week or so.
 
The latest NAAIM mean average reading shows practically no movement from last week, which keeps it in a bullish configuration. The bears have gone from fully short and leveraged (there isn't a lot of them) to fully short with NO leverage. The bulls remain fully long and leveraged. That keeps me looking higher for the next week, but it may be more accurate to say I think there will remain some measure of a floor under this market.
 
I hope everyone is enjoying a safe and happy Independence Day.

This week the NAAIM mean average popped higher by more than 18 pts, which takes the reading from bullish to very bullish. There are no bears in the polls. Looks like they are "all-in" with the possible of exception of some small cash positions. Of course, the bulls are fully long and leveraged as always (seemingly). So, the smart money believes the market is going to move higher over the next few days or so. I'll be looking in the direction too.
 
The latest NAAIM reading shows the mean average fell about 10 pts, which still keeps it decidedly bullish. There were no bears in the poll last week, but this week some bears have taken fully short and leveraged positions. The bulls remain fully long and leveraged. I continue to look higher overall, but I am not complacent about this market.
 
This week's NAAIM mean average dipped about 6 pts, which still keeps the reading solidly bullish. The bears remain fully short and leveraged and the bulls remain fully long and leveraged. Overall, there is just some minor shuffling of positions. While the market is showing some volatility, the smart money continues to expect upward movement in the S&P 500, although small caps are trying make a bullish statement of late.
 
The latest NAAIM reading shows these money managers getting a bit more cautious as the mean average fell more than 11 pts. That isn't a ton, but it takes the reading from very bullish to simply bullish. The bears went from fully short and leveraged to just fully short (no leverage). The bulls remain fully long and leveraged.

So, the reading remains bullish, but this is the 3rd week in a row of declining bullishness. The fact that the bears took off their leverage tells me the downside isn't as appealing as it was a week ago.
 
This week's NAAIM mean average rose a bit more than 7 pts. That keeps the reading bullish. The bears remain fully short (no leverage) and bulls remain fully long and leveraged. Overall, it appears these managers simply increased their exposure to the long side.
 
Even smart money may not know when "it" might happen (sometimes they do, but not this time). I would not assume that NAAIM is going to remain bullish. Markets that act like this one currently is (not to mention escalating geopolitical events) cannot be trusted. Some Brokerages are reporting outages even has people's accounts are getting hammered. Sounds like a plan to me.

Retail Traders Furious As Outages Hit Major US Brokerages Amid Black Monday Chaos | ZeroHedge

I think something may have finally broke.
 
The latest NAAIM reading dipped more than 8 pts, which is not far from where it was 2 weeks ago. The reading is modestly bullish, but is close to neutral. The bears went from fully short with no leverage last week to fully short and half leveraged this week. The bulls remain fully long and leveraged. So, this smart money is somewhat cautious, but obviously continues to lean toward the bullish side.
 
This week's NAAIM reading fell almost 19 pts. That puts it into a neutral posture (maybe slightly bearish). There are more bears in the poll and they are now fully short and fully leveraged. The bulls remain fully long and leveraged. The market might do anything with a reading like this. Maybe we see some volatility? Right now, the bulls are in charge in the stock market, but how long before the bears show up?
 
I'm still waiting for NAAIM to update their data, but I wanted to point out something to be aware of (this is not actionable info necessarily). A while back I pointed out that the powers that be typically keep the market elevated in an election year. While that is true, that scenario didn't play out that way in 2008. The market crashed heading into November. It's possible we could see a similar situation this year, but of course it is unknown if or when something like this might occur. Keep this in mind as we head closer to the November election.

Of course, we may get some help from the smart money if they get risk averse (or from chart data from some of our great chartist here on site).
 
The latest NAAIM mean average reading moved up about 18 pts this week. That puts the NAAIM reading back into a bullish posture (not nearly as bullish as we've seen it in the past). The bears remain fully short and fully leveraged, while the bulls remain fully long and leveraged. Basically, a good portion of the bears went back to the bullish camp (not a surprise given the recent rally).
 
This week's NAAIM reading shows the mean average rising more than 6 pts. That keeps it bullish overall. The bears remain fully short and leveraged and the bulls remain fully long and leveraged. I don't get the impression that this market is ready to roll over with this reading, but anything is possible. I am looking higher for now.
 
This week's NAAIM reading shows the mean average dipping a bit more than 10 pts., which puts the reading in a neutral condition or modestly bullish at best. The bears remain fully short and leveraged and the bulls are fully long and leveraged. So, no change in that regard. These money managers remain somewhat cautious. They have not been heavily bulled up since mid-July.
 
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