coolhand's Account Talk

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This week's NAAIM reading rose about 9 pts, which takes it from modestly bullish to simply bullish. The bears have no short positions after going fully short and leveraged last week. I would say that this reading suggests limited downside with a higher probability of higher prices overall for the next few days.


Sorry Tom, meant to post this in my thread.
 
I was away from my computer yesterday and so never got around to posting the latest from NAAIM. I guess better late than not. This week's NAAIM reading fell by more than 26 pts. That puts it in a neutral stance. The bears are back to fully short and leveraged again. The bulls remain fully long and leveraged.

With the reading being neutral, this market could go either way or both (volatility?). Friday has the S&P 500 hitting fresh highs, so maybe a reversal early next week? I don't know, but this market has been silly to the upside and silly has been known to get even sillier.
 
Last week, I said that this market had been silly to the upside and that silly was known to get even sillier. I think some of the bears at NAAIM must have read my post as they bailed on a good portion of their shorts as the mean average soared more than 30 pts. That puts this sentiment back in a bullish stance. The bears that remain continue to be fully short and leveraged, while the bulls continue to be long and leveraged. It looks like we may get more upside movement for the next few days.
 
This week's NAAIM mean average ticked higher by a little more than 3 pts, which is not particularly significant and keeps the sentiment bullish. Only modest shuffling of the numbers are in evidence, so the outlook remains the same as last week. Higher prices (overall) are likely over the next few days (especially the S&P 500).
 
The latest NAAIM reading shows the mean average rising another 6.5 pts (or so), which makes it even more bullish than it was last week. There are no bears in the poll. Of course, the bulls remain long and leveraged. No change in the weekly forecast. I expect more upside (overall) over the next few days on this reading.
 
This week's NAAIM reading ticked higher by less than 2 pts, which keeps the reading very bullish. Last week, there were no shorts in the numbers, but there are some managers that have taken a 50% short position (not leveraged) this week. There can't be very many of them as the mean average is fairly high. Still, those managers who have opened short positions may be thinking it's time to have exposure to the possibility of a reversal down the road.

Given the collective long side leveraged exposure they continue to have, I am anticipating more upside for now, but be wary of this market. Things could change quickly.
 
This week's NAAIM mean average fell almost 21 pts. The reading was quite bullish last week and this week's reading I would say is moderately bullish. The bears have gone from 50% short (no leverage) last week to fully short and leveraged this week. So, we have a shift that while still bullish overall, shows some measure of concern on downside possibilities. It's tough to get excited about the downside though when the S&P 500 is hitting fresh all-time highs. I would say that this market may very well continue to probe higher. Things can obviously still change, but until they do the nod goes to the bulls.
 
This week's NAAIM mean average rose more than 14 pts, which takes it from moderately bullish last week to solidly bullish this week. The bears remain fully short and leveraged, but there are fewer of them. The bulls remain fully long and leveraged. So, it looks like more upside may be in the cards over the days ahead.
 
This week's NAAIM reading shows the mean average rising another 4pt, which keeps it solidly bullish. The bears have taken off their leveraged shorts and are now just 50% short with no leverage. the bulls remain long and leveraged. So, there isn't many bears left in this poll, though they may not be true bears, just smart traders spreading out their risk. As crazy to the upside as this market has been overall, there is no telling when a top of some meaning may occur. Given that NAAIM is at their best in a bull market, I would take my cues from them when determining my own risk tolerance.
 
This week's NAAIM mean average moved up once again, this time by almost 11 pts. The mean average is now sitting at 104.75, which is quite high and I can see by the numbers that there appears to be no short positions at all. I think there may be some small cash positions, but other than that these money managers are all in on the long and leveraged side of this market. This will make sentiment traders nervous; assuming other sentiment measures are bullish as well (I don't follow them). Yes, this is starting to feel a bit like the 90s irrational exuberance rally, but this isn't the 90s, but it is an election year and that may key to a continuation of upside momentum over time even as we will almost certainly have some dips along the way.

But, as I have said previously, things could change quickly too. It's impossible to know how it all plays out, but I'm thinking this market still has some legs.
 
I agree coolhand. room to go. but, i'm thinking it also looking like a melt up situation; which means it could reverse quickly. keep the powder dry.
 
The latest NAAIM mean average reading dipped about 11.5 pts, which puts it back to where it was 2 weeks ago. The reading remains quite bullish, but we do have some fully short and leveraged bears. Their numbers are small, which is why the reading remains very bullish. But understand that the bearish positions may be starter positions that build as the market continues to climb. I am not saying it will play out that way, but it might. We can definitely see that this smart money is very cautious on the short side, but they also know quite well that serious money can be made on the short side or at least will control losses if one is overinvested on the long side should things turn South. I am not projecting bullishness or bearishness, I am simply looking past a weekly reading and where we may or may not be headed. Until market character changes I continue to look higher and NAAIM continues to do that as well.
 
this market just seems to keep on climbing with no rest. WOW!

BTW: Thank you coolhand for the NAAIM info and commentary. much appreciated!
 
This week's NAAIM mean average rose almost 11 pts, which puts it back near where it was 2 weeks ago. So, the reading is very bullish once more. The bears went from fully short and leveraged to just just 50% short (no leverage). There are not many bears at all. These money managers are overwhelmingly bullish and so I continue to look higher myself.
 
Bullish is good. It will get me closer to my high point I was at back in November of 21. 2022 kicked my butt.
 
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