coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

The latest NAAIM reading saw the mean average drop close to 6 pts this week. The reading is now in the middle range of neutral. The bears remain short, but not leveraged and bulls remain long and leveraged. Being this is a neutral reading, it doesn't give us much to go on. As for myself, given how far this market has gone until recently, we could be seeing early signs of a bigger breakdown yet to come. That's just an opinion. I can't (or won't) predict that because the market likes to play with us. Since NAAIM is collectively straddling the fence, it may not be a bad idea to reduce market risk to your personal risk tolerance level (taking into consideration your TSP transfer limitations). That's just something to consider. I am not qualified to give market advice.

 

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM reading took a nose dive, falling more than 25 pts. That takes the reading from neutral to bearish. The bears are now fully short and leveraged. The bulls remain long and leveraged, but there are fewer of them. Generally, this is a prescription for a rally given the size of the move, but with smart money any contrarian move by the market can reverse not long after. That means we could see a rally and then a reversal in the direction of the smart money positioning. This is a common outcome, but the market as always has the final say on where it goes and when.

 

[nasa1974]

This week's NAAIM reading took a nose dive, falling more than 25 pts. That takes the reading from neutral to bearish. The bears are now fully short and leveraged. The bulls remain long and leveraged, but there are fewer of them. Generally, this is a prescription for a rally given the size of the move, but with smart money any contrarian move by the market can reverse not long after. That means we could see a rally and then a reversal in the direction of the smart money positioning. This is a common outcome, but the market as always has the final say on where it goes and when.

As always. Very informative.

 

[coolhand]

The latest NAAIM reading shows the mean average jumping more than 26 pts, which puts it back in a neutral condition. I said last week that the large drop in the mean average typically triggers a rally, but that if we got it it likely would not last long. Well, we got the rally and then some. And it has been substantial enough to back the bears off. This is not surprising as we have seen this before. It's why the bears rarely get satisfaction. Even for smart money.

Looking at the numbers the bears do remain fully short and leveraged, but there are fewer of them. The bulls remain fully long and leveraged and they added some bulls to their numbers. Having said that, the reading is only neutral and there are some bears that are hanging in there with fully leveraged short exposure. That is interesting, because it suggests that they see something that they see as worth the risk. It's still hard to get excited about this reading, but I suspect we may very well see a reversal soon. The current rally seeks to thin out the short positions first. And with the holiday in front of us, that is another reason to look for another possible turn.

 

[coolhand]

Today's NAAIM reading saw the mean average fall about 12 pts, which keeps it neutral, but not far from turning bearish. The reading also shows the bulls remain fully long and leveraged, but there was a small dip in their numbers. The bears remain fully short and leveraged and their numbers stayed close to the same overall. I note that over the past 6 weeks, the bears have been fully short and leveraged 4 out of those 6 weeks and the other 2 weeks they have been been just fully short (no leverage). We have not seen this kind of tenacity from the bears in a long time. They are not taking huge risks, but they are more committed to their short positions than they have been. While the bears have not had much luck on the short side, that could change at some point. Watch for a change in market character. It could come at any time (not necessarily imminent).

 

[coolhand]

The latest NAAIM reading shows the mean average rising a little more than 8 pts this week. This keeps the reading in a neutral condition. The numbers show the bears remaining fully short and leveraged and the bulls maintaining their usual status of fully long and leveraged. Overall, the numbers just show some shuffling of positions.

As I said last week, the bears have been very committed to the short side and this is the 7th week in a row that they have been pressing the short side. And 5 of those weeks they were fully leveraged (currently it's 4 in a row). They are obviously expecting some downside action and are determined to not be easily chased from their positions as they once were. That kind of commitment suggests something is coming, but what and when? Or, will their expectations be eventually dashed as has happened so often in the past?

I am hearing that a Government shutdown is being talked about again (it's that time of year), but that this time the shutdown is much more likely to happen. We have another pandemic being jawboned and the UAW is talking about striking. There is much more too, but I am not going to try and list them. The point is only that there are clouds gathering and they do appear to be storm clouds.

 

[WorkFE]

The point is only that there are clouds gathering and they do appear to be storm clouds.

Yes there are.

 

[Epic]

Yes there are.

I would also agree. I believe we're just knee deep into phase 4 of this cycle. There may be a small rally into the Fall Season, but overall I believe it's going to get worse.
I have no charting skilz, but you get the picture.........:nuts:
​Thanks Coolhand for your analysis and commentary.

 

[coolhand]

The latest NAAIM reading show the mean average dipping almost 4 pts, which is not particularly meaningful and that keeps it in a neutral condition, but inching closer to a bearish reading. The overall numbers did not change much with the exception that the bears are no longer leveraged short. They are now 50% short with no leverage. The bulls remain long and leveraged, but given the mean average is just neutral we can't give the nod to either side in my opinion. This reading suggests some sideways or choppy action for the next few days, but I would not get complacent with this market as the smart money is more or less riding the fence.

 

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM reading saw the mean average fall about 11 pts to 43.01. That takes the reading from its previously neutral condition to a bearish posture.

The bears went from half short last week, to half leveraged short this week. They are now pressing the short side once again. The bulls remain fully long and leveraged, but their numbers dipped.

 

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM reading sees the mean average fall once again, this time by about 7 pts. The reading remains bearish overall. The numbers show the bears holding steady with 50% short and 50% leveraged short positions. The bulls remain fully long and leveraged, but their numbers are dwindling. These money managers are collectively positioned for more weakness in the days ahead.

 

[nasa1974]

 

[dannyboy]

This week's NAAIM reading sees the mean average fall once again, this time by about 7 pts. The reading remains bearish overall. The numbers show the bears holding steady with 50% short and 50% leveraged short positions. The bulls remain fully long and leveraged, but their numbers are dwindling. These money managers are collectively positioned for more weakness in the days ahead.

Thanks for your input!!! I want to elect Cool for president?

 

[Epic]

Thanks for your input!!! I want to elect Cool for president?

:lmao::lmao::lmao:

 

[coolhand]

Without mentioning specific events, what we see unfolding on the world stage right now (and there is much) are likely some of the elements of what the smart money has been watching and/or anticipating (on some level) for some time now. For weeks the bearish positioning among the NAAIM managers has been relatively consistent and not easily shaken.

This is October and this is the month that has seen some significant sell-offs in years past. We may be approaching another one now. I cannot predict such, but it sure looks like a potential set-up of consequence to me. What is happening in other parts of the world may very well spread (I am pretty sure it will).

So, let's see what Monday brings (given the timing of recent events). No doubt, there will be more shocks to come.

 

[coolhand]

Looks like the bears may be tested once again. There is nothing organic about this market.

 

[dannyboy]

Looks like the bears may be tested once again. There is nothing organic about this market.

‘Organic’? I am staying 100 G until change?

 

[coolhand]

It is not organic, which is to say it is controlled. That is nothing new, but it's becoming more overt over time. The headlines associated with market action delivered by the MSM are just a façade to steer us to what the controllers want us to believe.

 

[coolhand]

The latest NAAIM reading shows the mean average rising almost 10 pts, but that still keeps it in a bearish posture. There was some shuffling in the numbers as we see the bears now going fully leveraged short. The bulls remain fully long and leveraged and their numbers showed a modest increase. Overall, the picture among these money managers is about the same. The bears remain committed to short exposure and I continue to find that very telling. It very much suggests that this market may not be able to hold its support levels at some point. Just be aware that this is a dance of sorts and that this dance could go on for a little while yet (or not).

 

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM reading saw the NAAIM mean average jump almost 21 pts. The reading is now bullish, but only modestly so. The numbers show the biggest change within bearish circles as the bears took off their leveraged shorts and are now only 50% short with no leverage. The bulls remain fully long and leveraged, but interestingly their numbers did not increase. The bears just got defensive.

This suggests that significant downside risk has decreased for the moment. But because the bulls in the survey did not swell their numbers at the same time suggests that the upside may be somewhat limited for now too. As I said, the reading is only modestly bullish, so this market may remain somewhat volatile within a range.