coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM reading, which was bullish last week, is a bit more bullish this week as longs added modestly to their holdings. There isn't all that much change in the numbers overall. This market appears headed higher for time being, but remain fluid as we never know when things may change.

 

[FAAM]

So glad to see you routinely doing these posts CH, much appreciated! Thx.

 

[coolhand]

The latest NAAIM reading shows the recent trend toward increasing bullishness continued this week as the NAAIM mean average pushed higher into bullish territory. This marks the 5th week in a row of increasing bullishness. The reading is solidly bullish now with few bears in evidence.

 

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM reading shows a modest dip in the mean average. The reading, which was bullish least week, remains bullish this week. I note that there was some short positions taken this week, but it isn't particularly meaningful given the majority of managers are still leveraged long right now.

 

[coolhand]

We got a big shift in this week's NAAIM reading. The mean average dropped over 24 points, which takes it out of bullish territory and puts it in a neutral condition. The bears have not only increased their shorts, but are now fully leveraged too. This does not happen often in this market. The bulls among them remain fully leveraged (long) as well. These money managers are split right down the middle right now. This could be an early indication of trouble for the market, but the short side has not been kind to the bears. As always, time will tell.

 

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM reading shows the mean average dropping more than 9 points, which pushes it deeper into bearish territory. The bears did pull back modestly on their leveraged short positions, but are still fairly heavily leveraged. The bulls remain fully leveraged on their collective long positions, but it appears there are fewer of them, which is likely why the reading fell. So, the smart money continues looking lower overall.

 

[coolhand]

The latest NAAIM reading shows the mean average for stock exposure rose almost 13 points, which takes the reading from bearish to about neutral. The bears dropped their leveraged short positions another 25% this week, so they are half leveraged short. The bulls remain 100% leveraged long, but the bulls that got off the bulls train last week are back on the bull train this week, so there is more of them. The drop in leveraged shorts and the increase in the number of leveraged longs is what pushed the mean average higher this week. Still, as I said, the reading is now neutral so it is not clear by this reading where the market might head (if anywhere) over the next week or so.

 

[coolhand]

So, things are getting ever more interesting, or should I say worrisome? Looking at the latest NAAIM reading I see that the mean average fell about 18 points, which puts it right back into a bearish condition. The bears were leveraged 50% short last week and remain leveraged 50% short this week. The bulls remain fully leveraged long, but the numbers of bulls was reduced.

My personal perspective is that the bank failures in the news right now are very likely not going to be the only ones (not to mention the potential negative impacts in other sectors). And this is a worldwide situation, so I would not be inclined to look at this as just another wall of worry. I suspect this situation has some measure of weeks to play out yet and I have heard in some circles that it won't end well for the bankers. I am just a bystander taking the pulse of things and watching the smart money to see what they do. And they're overall bearish once again.

 

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM reading saw the mean average move back up about 11 points. I am seeing this reading as neutral now after being bearish last week. Looking at the numbers, the bears took off their leveraged short positions, but remain short. The bulls remain leveraged long and there were some new bulls added to the rolls, which is largely why the mean average moved up. Overall, it's a mixed picture as has been the case quite often.

 

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM reading saw the mean average move higher (~12 pts) for the 2nd week in a row. The reading is now neutral to modestly bullish. The bears cut their short positions from 100% to 50%. The bulls remain fully leveraged long and the number of bulls rose modestly.

The picture being painted by this smart money is hardly one of upside conviction at this point, but more like the shuffling of positions based on short term perspectives. The momentum remains in favor of the bulls, but there remains a healthy amount of skepticism among these money managers in either market direction.

 

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM mean average reading moved higher by almost 8 points; not a huge move, but more bullish. This takes the reading from neutral/modestly bullish to bullish. Still, this is not to be interpreted as a green light for bulls. We have seen much higher bullish readings for months on end quite some time ago. There remains caution among these money managers. The numbers show the bears remain 50% short, but not leveraged. The number of bears increased a bit. The bulls remain leveraged long and they increased their numbers some as well.

For the current moment, the bulls get the nod and the market is likely to bias higher as it is doing today. Remain wary if you are long, however. That is the takeaway from today's reading.

 

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM reading, which was bullish last week, has seen a drop in the mean average of about 14pts and that puts it into a neutral to modestly bullish condition.

The bulls remain leveraged long with just a modest drop in the number of bulls. The bears, who were short only 50% (and not leveraged) last week are now leveraged 50%, so they apparently sense a pullback is near.

I would say that while a pullback may come soon, as long as the bulls remain leveraged long and have numbers on their side this market is likely going to remain resilient.

 

[coolhand]

The latest NAAIM reading shows these money managers shifting gears once again as the mean average jumped almost 20 points and went back to a bullish condition. This is the highest reading since mid-February. The bears not only turned off their leveraged positions, but they took their shorts off too. The bulls remain leveraged long.

This reading certainly suggests some measure of upside in the days ahead.

 

[coolhand]

As has been a weekly trend the past few weeks, these money managers shifted gears once again. We got a healthy bullish reading last week, and this week the reading fell 27 points to a neutral reading, and it isn't far from getting into bearish territory. Looking at the numbers, the bears went 50% short, but not leveraged and not in big numbers either. The bulls remain fully leveraged and long, but the number of bulls dipped.

It's the same old situation with the positioning of these managers as they get cautious about every other week. The numbers seem to tell me that this market is likely going to remain resilient at the very least as the bulls remain committed (even if a few went neutral), while the bears remain wary of the short side overall. Still, this market is uneven and there remains much concern about the economy and its potential impact on all things financial to warrant keeping a finger on the trigger to either bail in or out (in whole or in part).

 

[nasa1974]

As has been a weekly trend the past few weeks, these money managers shifted gears once again. We got a healthy bullish reading last week, and this week the reading fell 27 points to a neutral reading, and it isn't far from getting into bearish territory. Looking at the numbers, the bears went 50% short, but not leveraged and not in big numbers either. The bulls remain fully leveraged and long, but the number of bulls dipped.

It's the same old situation with the positioning of these managers as they get cautious about every other week. The numbers seem to tell me that this market is likely going to remain resilient at the very least as the bulls remain committed (even if a few went neutral), while the bears remain wary of the short side overall. Still, this market is uneven and there remains much concern about the economy and its potential impact on all things financial to warrant keeping a finger on the trigger to either bail in or out (in whole or in part).

Excellent information as always. Thank you.

 

[coolhand]

Last week, the NAAIM money managers went from bullish to neutral, but were close to getting into bearish territory. This week, the mean average rose about 16pts and that puts the reading into a modestly bullish condition. The bears closed all their shorts and the bulls remain long and leveraged.

The reading doesn't tell us a whole lot given that the reading continues to project a picture of caution. But the bulls among them have been largely steadfast overall in their conviction to the long side, so there is that.

I continue to suggest keeping your finger on the trigger as this market rides the uncertain nature of the economic (and banking) landscape.

 

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM reading dipped less than 2pts from last week's reading, which keeps it modestly bullish. The bears did put on some shorts (50%), but no leveraged short positions. The bulls remain leveraged long and a few more bulls may have been minted. Still, the picture remains mixed in my view as something is keeping these money managers from getting overly bullish or bearish (as far as the mean average goes). Overall, the bulls continue to get the nod here.

 

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM reading dipped about 6 pts, which now takes it from modestly bullish to neutral. The bears remain 50% short, but not leveraged, while the bulls remain leveraged long. The dip in the mean average appears to be due to a small drop in the number of bulls.

 

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM reading bumped up about 6.5 pts, which puts it about where it was the week before last. This puts it back into a modestly bullish stance, but I would place emphasis on "modestly". The bears took off their shorts and and are sitting neutral now. The bulls remain leveraged long and their long positions edged up a bit, which is why the mean average moved up a few points.

 

[coolhand]

The bears woke up a bit this week as the latest NAAIM reading shows more than an 11 point drop in the mean average. The bears among these money managers went from neutral to fully short (not leveraged) this week, while the bulls remained fully leveraged long. The reading itself is back to a neutral condition. Are the bears going to get any satisfaction this coming week? We'll see. There are certainly enough potential headlines to generate some action.