coolhand's Account Talk

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The latest NAAIM reading shows the mean average rising moderately to what I would call a fairly neutral reading. This is the highest reading since late August, but like I said, it's only neutral even if it has been moving in a bullish direction the past 2 weeks. The numbers show a similar spread as last week with the bears short exposure very near what it was last week, while the bulls have taken a bit more bullish long exposure. What does this latest reading really mean? It certainly appears that the short side is limited for the moment, but there are some big events on the horizon and we don't know how that might affect the market. Maybe that is why NAAIM is only neutral. They don't appear to be trying to hit any homeruns in either direction. Caution is still the name of the game.
 
NAAIM has posted that they are having trouble posting their weekly reading. However, they did give their mean average which is about 1.31 higher than last week. That is not enough of a change to be meaningful. So, without being able to look at the numbers I would say that they probably didn't change much from last week either. The reading remains neutral. These money managers continue to spread out their risk in both directions.
 
NAAIM continues to report that they are having trouble uploading data, but they did post the numbers as text. The number dipped slightly to 53.33, which is a bit more than 1 point lower. It is not meaningful. Overall, they are collectively riding the fence with leveraged long positions and non-leveraged short positions. The reading remains neutral.
 
The latest NAAIM reading rose almost 12 points this week, which isn't a big jump, but it sure does seem to suggest the downside will remain limited. I see this number as still neutral, but I think we can also see it as modestly bullish given the upward direction of the reading. Keep in mind that this group of money managers were very bullish for years (months at a time) during the bull market. The mean average was often over 90 and occasionally even higher than 105. So, a reading of 64.96 like we have this week, is not a buy signal in my book. There is still plenty of caution being shown by these money managers. However, having exposure to stocks on some level is a reasonable consideration. Obviously, how much exposure is dependent on your own research and risk tolerance.
 
NAAIM didn't post last week's survey till yesterday. That reading showed a modest dip in the mean average. I note that full short positions remain in place for the 4th week in a row, while leveraged long positions also remain in place (for many weeks now). Overall, the numbers didn't change much. The overall reading is neutral.
 
The latest NAAIM reading shows a modest rise in the mean average. The reading remains neutral, but I note that short exposure was reduced 75%, while long exposure remained leveraged at near the same levels. This suggests that the downside remains limited and we may even see another attempt to drive price higher. The fact that these managers remain tempered in their collective market stance suggests that the long side remains a reasonable play (based on current positioning), but for how long? And we are heading into the historically strongest time of year for stocks. Will this year keep with the norm? We'll know later this month, but the smart money is so far not showing a strong inclination to throw caution to the wind.
 
The latest NAAIM reading shows that the mean average has dropped almost 9 points. This drop still keeps the reading in the neutral area, though on the lower end. Looking at the numbers I see that the bears are not shorting the market at this time. They only had modest short exposure last week. The bulls remain leveraged long. The overall reading suggests more up/down action with some measure of a floor under the market. Positive seasonality may be the reason for the caution on the short side.
 
Today's NAAIM reading was a bit of a surprise for me. Not a big one, but it was not what I would have expected. The reading jumped close to 16 points, which is more significant than what we have seen of late. The average is now modestly bullish. The bears had no shorts last week and they are still not shorting this week. The bulls, who have been leveraged long for some time now, remain leveraged long and added to those longs since last week.

Now, I know this is the bullish holiday season, but to not see any shorting at all given the current market action is what is surprising me the most. Granted, they are not heavily bulled up, just leaning decidedly bullish, so there does remain some caution. Is it the bears sitting in neutral or cash positions keeping the mean average down? Still looking for an opportunity to short with both hands, but taking a wait and see approach? Perhaps. Maybe the end-of-year rally happens again after an early swoon, but what if it's more selling instead?

Of course, the next couple of weeks and into early January will be interesting to say the least.
 
Always like your insights, I work full time and f and I don’t have a lot to post. it gets me thinking for I don’t have the records, files, etc. to make anything?
 
This week's NAAIM reading saw a big shift from bullish to bearish. The mean average dropped more than 32 points. Extreme shifts in NAAIM often see the opposite reaction in the market, but not for more than a couple of days or so. In this case, we have yet to see an opposite reaction. Looking at the numbers, the bears are now fully short, but still not leveraged. The bulls remain leveraged and long, but there is far fewer of them. I suspect many are holding cash positions too. The reading is now bearish overall. As a side note, the reading is the lowest in several months.
 
After taking short positions last week, the latest NAAIM reading shows that the bears have stopped shorting once again. The bulls remain leveraged long, but like last week, not in big numbers. Overall, the reading rose somewhat modestly, but remains on the bearish side. Given the up/down nature of this market, I suspect that the smart money isn't having much fun trading this market either. NAAIM's overall positioning continues to show a healthy respect for the downside (very wary) and tempered respect for the upside (leveraged long, but not in big numbers). Sure seems like they collectively are waiting for something to happen that is going to take this market lower. Caution is evident by both bulls and bears.
 
The latest NAAIM reading saw the mean average fall a few points, which keeps it bearish for the market. The numbers show some nibbling by the bears on short positions, but they are not going out on a limb. The bulls may have picked up a few more longs, but not enough to keep the mean average from falling more into bearish territory. Really, it's the same old story here. Caution on both sides of the market.
 
coolhand said:
The latest NAAIM reading saw the mean average fall a few points, which keeps it bearish for the market. The numbers show some nibbling by the bears on short positions, but they are not going out on a limb. The bulls may have picked up a few more longs, but not enough to keep the mean average from falling more into bearish territory. Really, it's the same old story here. Caution on both sides of the market.
Click to expand...
Happy New Year!!
Please keep posting!!
 
The latest NAAIM reading shows a small increase in the mean average, but not enough to take it out of bearish territory, though it is not far from a neutral reading. The bears cut their short exposure in half, which wasn't substantial to begin with. The bulls, for first time in months, cut their leveraged long positions by about 40%. That sounds a big move away from bullishness, but remember that the numbers show fully leveraged short, short, neutral, long, and leveraged long. So, while leveraged long exposure was cut, it could very well mean that they still remain long.

Overall, there still isn't that much to be gleaned from their current positions. Both sides remain cautious; especially the bears.
 
coolhand said:
The latest NAAIM reading shows a small increase in the mean average, but not enough to take it out of bearish territory, though it is not far from a neutral reading. The bears cut their short exposure in half, which wasn't substantial to begin with. The bulls, for first time in months, cut their leveraged long positions by about 40%. That sounds a big move away from bullishness, but remember that the numbers show fully leveraged short, short, neutral, long, and leveraged long. So, while leveraged long exposure was cut, it could very well mean that they still remain long.

Overall, there still isn't that much to be gleaned from their current positions. Both sides remain cautious; especially the bears.
Click to expand...

Always like your insight.
 
This week's NAAIM reading saw a sizable jump in bullishness and the reading itself is now modestly bullish. Interestingly, the bulls increased their leverage from last week's dip and the bears added to their short positions. It's a mixed picture, but taken as a whole it is still on the bullish side.
 
The latest NAAIM reading shows this smart money continued to move more in the bullish direction with the mean average rising about 10 points, going from modestly bullish to bullish. The numbers show the bears reducing much of their short positions, while leveraged longs and longs added to their positions. This reading very much suggests the upside is probably not done. No idea how much more upside we might see, but in a market like this it could be significant given how bearish so many polls have been. Still, the NAAIM reading, while bullish, is not heavily bulled up, so even some within smart money circles are not entirely comfortable with the current rally. But, would it really be surprising if the market continued to find ways to move higher beyond what seems reasonable?
 
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