coolhand's Account Talk

coolhand said:
.... At this point, we'll have to see if support holds. The bears may try to test it again in the days ahead; perhaps even tomorrow. Hopefully, this weakness dissipates by the middle of next week as we approach the strong holiday season. I am optimistic it may be a springboard to an end-of-year rally, though I am not predicting such.
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Thank you (sir?) again for sharing keen thoughts, insights. Tsunami on his thread posted about waves; perhaps up now, then down, with another UP perhaps next Tuesday. I waded a bit more into CSI COB Monday leaving some in F and most in G, still. So, keeping some powder dry hoping both your hopes/thoughts come true in a week or so. Yet, wondering what a zero-trade deal and the other twit-tariffs could do on that 15-DEC deadline(?). Hope not for a repeat of last year where Market Santa needed a Rudolph or something. G'day!
 
The market picked up where it left off on Monday as price gapped lower at the open. The bulls got some traction in the afternoon session and managed to close well off the lows, but some technical damage was done. Generally, price bounced off support. Hopefully, it holds for the bulls.

The CBOE is bearish this evening. Breadth fell lower and is close to going negative.

At this point, we'll have to see if support holds. The bears may try to test it again in the days ahead; perhaps even tomorrow. Hopefully, this weakness dissipates by the middle of next week as we approach the strong holiday season. I am optimistic it may be a springboard to an end-of-year rally, though I am not predicting such.
 
The market opened the week with a big red candlestick across the averages. It was due given the extent of the rally. But will weakness early in the month set up the Santa rally in the days ahead? It's possible.

This evening, the CBOE is neutral. TRIN and TRINQ are neutral.

NYAD.png

Cumulative breadth has taken a good hit the past 2 trading days and has gone from an all-time peak to neutral as the signal crossed the first warning area today. However, the signal is at the lower end a range that spans about a month. Is the market losing steam or setting up the next extended rally? This does remain a bull market, and that means a lot.

It doesn't hurt that NAAIM is bullish either.

I remain bullish overall despite the potential for more weakness in the short term.
 
The TSP stock funds had a good week last week. Friday's action saw price dip, but that weakness did little to dent the bullish demeanor of this market.

For Monday, the CBOE is neutral. TSP Talk came in quite bullish. NAAIM is bullish, but not over-the-top so.

Breadth remains positive, but it did dip on Friday.

I suspect this week may bring more of the same upside bias. The holidays are approaching, which means seasonality may help to contribute to the bull party at some point. That is not a lock however, as last year the holidays saw significant selling pressure. But that outcome not typical.

I remain bullish, but not complacent.
 
Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!

So far this week, the TSP stock funds are doing very well; especially the S fund. All are over 1% and the S fund is up almost 2.5%.

I know the action is bullish, but I want to caution that things can go South in a hurry. I am not suggesting that such is imminent, I don't think it is, but it is all too easy to lose site of the fact that a rising market is not necessarily an indication of sound underlying fundamentals. Money printing can do wonders for optics. And in my previous post I took you to a link with a very recent interview with Lynette Zang, who is a very popular financial guru in some circles. That interview helps frame the reality of what is really going on.

Let's get on to the current pulse of the market.

The S&P and DWCPF are pulling away from their consolidation areas. Obviously, that is technically bullish. However, the indexes are getting overbought. That is just something to not, but I am not concerned with that as they can get a lot more overbought.

The CBOE is neutral. TRIN and TRINQ are neutral. NAAIM came in mostly unchanged. They were bullish last week and remain so this week. The bears among them are not challenging this market (shorting) much. That's a good thing if you are long stocks. Cumulative breadth is bullish and rising.

In summary, I am flabbergasted (as Lynette is) with how this market defies gravity, but I understand why it's happening. I cannot predict with precision how long this will go on, so everyone has to determine their personal comfort level with stock exposure. Gold and Silver are touted by many as good hedges (just saying).

Technically, the market remains bullish and the latest NAAIM reading suggests that will not change in the immediate future.
 
No change from yesterday. The market tacked on more gains. Breadth remains bullish. The CBOE is neutral. Most of my other indicators are either neutral or bullish.

I remain bullish.
 
We can now put the DWCPF more firmly into the bullish camp after today's huge rally as price closed well above a key resistance level (there is more resistance above). I don't think it's a fake out. Not with the S&P hitting a fresh all-time high.

The CBOE is neutral this evening. Cumulative breadth moved smartly higher (bullish).

The action was bullish and bodes well moving forward.
 
I always appreciate your insight Cool. Keep it coming and have a great Sunday!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
The market posted modest to moderate losses last week (C, S and I funds) as the battle over direction of the market continued between the bulls and bears.

The S&P remains near its all-time high and could potentially push even higher easily enough. The DWCPF continues to struggle with resistance, but has not been giving up much downside either. While one could argue that the DWCPF is indicating fatigue and a probable pullback (at resistance), the S&P is not in the same boat. That chart remains bullish.

What are we to believe moving forward? Understand that this market is not moving so much on trading activity, which is an just an overlay on the actual foundation of price movement. Monetary control is really at the heart of the action (battle between at least 2 forces). So, be prepared as best you can for potential surprises.

The CBOE is neutral to modesty bullish. NAAIM is bullish. TSP Talk scaled back their bullishness to a neutral stance.

Cumulative breadth remains technically bullish, but because it is still tracking sideways I would not get too complacent on that reading. The market could break either way.

Overall, I remain neutral to modestly bullish as we head into the new week.
 
More selling today, but still no serious cracks in the bull's armor. It's still a healthy pullback.

The CBOE is neutral. NAAIM got a bit more bullish. I'd say they are now on the bullish side as opposed to neutral last week. Even if we get more selling, this reading suggests it should not be significant.

Breadth has now gone neutral as it dipped below my 21 day moving average.

Overall, I think more selling could manifest, but it should be contained. It's the bulls who still command the market.
 
coolhand said:
It's frustrating for those who are playing it safe. NAAIM backed off their bullishness some last week because they apparently were not completely comfortable with being overly leveraged on the long side. The Hindenburg Omen's have been known to be precursors to sell-offs, but we know they are not 100% accurate.

There are plenty of reasons to be on the sidelines (as am I). But I have exposure to precious metal too (real money), so I am prepared when things eventually go South.

I wish I could pinpoint how long that would take. I watched a Lynette Zang interview today where one of the viewers sent in a question on that very thing, and she said she had no way of knowing. She also said to look for her next interview on the SGT Report where she was going to reveal something big. She didn't hint at what it was, but I"ll be looking for it over the next week or so. I enjoy her perspective.
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Thanks Coolhand, I'll be checking it out as well.

Yesterday could easily be pegged as simple consolidation but we'll see. I'm fairly neutrtal at the moment. Take a glance at nasa1974's post with the December TSP #'s history.

nasa1974 said:
Here are December's numbers.

View attachment 45074
Click to expand...
Link in case it didn't come through in the quote... https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/attachme...74249030-nasa1974s-account-talk-december-xlsx

Of course it leaves plenty to the imagination/speculation of what to expect through December but it is another tool in the toolbox. BTW, thanks for that Nasa1974!
 
coolhand said:
It's frustrating for those who are playing it safe. NAAIM backed off their bullishness some last week because they apparently were not completely comfortable with being overly leveraged on the long side. The Hindenburg Omen's have been known to be precursors to sell-offs, but we know they are not 100% accurate.

There are plenty of reasons to be on the sidelines (as am I). But I have exposure to precious metal too (real money), so I am prepared when things eventually go South.

I wish I could pinpoint how long that would take. I watched a Lynette Zang interview today where one of the viewers sent in a question on that very thing, and she said she had no way of knowing. She also said to look for her next interview on the SGT Report where she was going to reveal something big. She didn't hint at what it was, but I"ll be looking for it over the next week or so. I enjoy her perspective.
Click to expand...

thanks for the heads up on SGT🤙
 
We got a moderate pullback today, which is not a bad thing. No technical damage to speak of. I do note that price on the DWCPF is struggling to push past a key resistance area, but it is still poised to try to break it if the bulls can get it together.

NYAD.png

Breadth remains bullish, but as you can see from the chart, the signal is tracking sideways. We had a similar pattern in September that gave way to a decline before eventually resolving higher. I think the odds favor a similar outcome here, but I could be wrong.

The CBOE has not yet posted so I don't know how they are positioned. They've been bullish of late. NAAIM report tomorrow. That will give us a better idea of what we might expect in the action for the following week.
 
BooDog said:
Isn't it fashionable how the market waits till after 12pm to decide direction. Happens way too often imo. Is this the Hindenburg Omen starting to set in?? Or will the volatility kick in big time? I'm still 100% G but sure missed out on a nice move.
Click to expand...

It's frustrating for those who are playing it safe. NAAIM backed off their bullishness some last week because they apparently were not completely comfortable with being overly leveraged on the long side. The Hindenburg Omen's have been known to be precursors to sell-offs, but we know they are not 100% accurate.

There are plenty of reasons to be on the sidelines (as am I). But I have exposure to precious metal too (real money), so I am prepared when things eventually go South.

I wish I could pinpoint how long that would take. I watched a Lynette Zang interview today where one of the viewers sent in a question on that very thing, and she said she had no way of knowing. She also said to look for her next interview on the SGT Report where she was going to reveal something big. She didn't hint at what it was, but I"ll be looking for it over the next week or so. I enjoy her perspective.
 
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