coolhand's Account Talk

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coolhand said:
Here's the reason why I'm looking for a short term rally.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=107515

This is taken from a premium service I subscribe to, part of which was posted on the open MB. I won't play a one day buy signal with TSP, but with the five day also in buy territory it greatly enhances my chance for some profit.

These one and five day signals are not as straight forward as you might think. They are issued with a measure of flexibility, which is why the one day signal is good until Wednesday.
Click to expand...

I see it in my charts too and I'm also thinking about a short 1-2 day play. Look at the TNX.

View attachment 6466

The TNX suggests that we could see a bounce in the market tomorrow morning, but the chart is looking scary. Notice that it has been bouncing off the 20dma since March. The Fed and the Treasury are idiot crooks. Once GS gets their shorts ready, the Feds will pull liquidity to drive everybody to the safety of bonds, crashing the market and the TNX, because their buying of treasuries ain't working. Are we about to see the TNX fall trough the 20 dma? I don't know.

Be carefull and good luck.:D
 
CH,

Looks like a really good day to buy in if that is your move. What kind of an exit point would you be looking for?

G/L.


Turbo
 
350zCommTech said:
The Fed and the Treasury are idiot crooks. Once GS gets their shorts ready, the Feds will pull liquidity to drive everybody to the safety of bonds, crashing the market and the TNX, because their buying of treasuries ain't working. Are we about to see the TNX fall trough the 20 dma? I don't know.

Be carefull and good luck.:D
Click to expand...

You're right. The manipulation has been overt, but I have to take my buy signals when they present themselves...and that ain't often.:rolleyes:
 
turbo23dog said:
CH,

Looks like a really good day to buy in if that is your move. What kind of an exit point would you be looking for?

G/L.


Turbo
Click to expand...

My exit point is profit. I'm not looking at targets as TSP is too inflexible to pick one. I'll be monitoring my sources for guidance here, but if we get that rally I won't be trying to push it too far. We get back above 920 SPX and I'll be happy. As I said previously, we could see a ST move higher that could last for about one week, but expect some chop during that move. It could go higher than most people think due to end of quarter market positioning too.
 
Gumby said:
Inflation and higher interest rates are going to happen. I have been buying the ETF TBT in my trading account as a long term hold. This fund increases in value as the 20 year treasuries drop in value....(yield goes up).
Click to expand...


Just following up..... TBT has been a great ETF to hold all year. Last week it was up about 50% for the year.
 
Looks like my rally will start this morning, which is within the timeframe I was looking for. Durable goods report certainly gave futures a boost. The FOMC meeting should not be a major factor, but will force me to hold my position until at least Thursday and possibly Friday depending on how the market reacts and how sentiment shapes up. I'm not sticking around too long. Hit and run.

Good read for this morning on Briefing.com...

http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...me=Investor&ArticleId=NS20090624085447PageOne
 
CH

I picked up a small position in SSO yesterday afternoon based on the 60-minute chart (even though the 10-day trend is down). I am not sure how long this will last, I was figuring maybe just today or a tad longer, before things start heading down again. Hopefully you will be correct, that it stretch into Thurs-Fri. But I am keeping tight stops on this one, especially towards 2 pm today. I will be satisfied with 2%, then out.

I am still all G in the tsp, do not trust these little rallies to give enough reward for the risk inherent in the slow IFT process the tsp uses.
 
mdszj said:
CH

I picked up a small position in SSO yesterday afternoon based on the 60-minute chart (even though the 10-day trend is down). I am not sure how long this will last, I was figuring maybe just today or a tad longer, before things start heading down again. Hopefully you will be correct, that it stretch into Thurs-Fri. But I am keeping tight stops on this one, especially towards 2 pm today. I will be satisfied with 2%, then out.

I am still all G in the tsp, do not trust these little rallies to give enough reward for the risk inherent in the slow IFT process the tsp uses.
Click to expand...

It's been a very risky trade and does require tight stops. I have to back up a little and say that I will not hold for Friday. If we continue to rise towards noon today I may pull the plug and take my gains today. The problem is the potential for a reversal following the FOMC announcement. If I remember correctly, the last annoucement was somewhat muted. I'm expecting it to be that way again today, which is why I posted that link to briefing.com. The street isn't expecting anything different, and the Fed doesn't want to upset a fragile economy. It's just too soon.

Watch my thread in the next hour (1130 est). I'll decide by then whether to give this one more day or not.
 
mdszj said:
CH

I picked up a small position in SSO yesterday afternoon based on the 60-minute chart (even though the 10-day trend is down).
Click to expand...

I should mention that I'm flat in my scottrade account today, but looking to reenter TZA. I've had two nice trades in a row on that one. It should be a rewarding 3X over the coming weeks.
 
Investors tend to buy on FOMC days. The DJIA has risen by 2.5% on average, on each of the past four Fed decision days. Three of those four rallies were followed, however, by sharp declines that erased the gains. Perhaps this time will be different.
 
Birchtree said:
Investors tend to buy on FOMC days. The DJIA has risen by 2.5% on average, on each of the past four Fed decision days. Three of those four rallies were followed, however, by sharp declines that erased the gains. Perhaps this time will be different.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the historical reference BT. 2.5% is about what I'm expecting today. Very risky after that considering the recent weakness and all it implies.
 
CH

If you or anyone else is interested in the effects of the FOMC mtg on the mkt you may want to check out this link: http://www.mypivots.com/articles/articles.aspx?artnum=11

BTW - I just moved my stop up on the SSO trade so that if I get stopped out I will make a little over 2.5%.

Good luck on the TZA as well as your TSP trade. WIll be interested to see whether you get out today or wait a bit.
 
mdszj said:
CH

If you or anyone else is interested in the effects of the FOMC mtg on the mkt you may want to check out this link: http://www.mypivots.com/articles/articles.aspx?artnum=11

BTW - I just moved my stop up on the SSO trade so that if I get stopped out I will make a little over 2.5%.

Good luck on the TZA as well as your TSP trade. WIll be interested to see whether you get out today or wait a bit.
Click to expand...

Great link! Thanks for sharing.

At this point I'm pretty sure I'll be moving to G today. Strength has held and there's a good chance it holds through the day. That's about the best set-up I could hope for when dealing with TSP constraints. ;)

I'll make it official soon.
 
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