coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

After recent weakness, the market retraced some of the losses to close positive on the day. No changes to my indicators overall. I do note that cumulative breadth on the NYSE is pulling away to the upside. There certainly seems to be a bid under this market even though we are not in a strong uptrend. The DWCPF in particular has not hit a higher high in some time now and is close to its 50 and 200 dma's as opposed to the S&P, which is further elevated above those same benchmarks and not all that far from its overall highs. It's an uneven picture, but a seemingly supported one. I'm am sure most of you are aware of the money pumping in progress by the CB. That is likely the reason for the inability of the bears to do any serious damage. But I don't know if the bulls can take advantage of it.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. I remain neutral.

 

[coolhand]

The pulled back a bit today, but you wouldn't know it looking at cumulative breadth, as it actually ticked just a bit higher. That may be a function of market strength earlier in the trading day.

The CBOE is neutral this evening. My other indicators remains largely neutral.

I remain neutral as we head into Wednesday.

 

[coolhand]

I had expected weakness for Monday, but the bulls pushed the S&P back over the 3000 instead with moderate gains. I'm not entirely surprised, as breadth was bullish.

In fact, breadth looks pretty good. NAAIM sitting neutral seems somewhat odd. But then again, the DWCPF isn't near its all-time highs, so the rally is not even.

My indicators are looking neutral this evening, including sentiment. I'm neutral for Tuesday.

 

[wahinepio]

Appreciate it Cool

 

[coolhand]

The market closed out with moderate gains for TSP stock funds last week. Friday's action was negative. In fact, price on the DWCPF tested its 50 and 200 dma's, but closed above them, so it was a successful test (support).

Friday's negative action may result in continued downside pressure given that NAAIM remains neutral and the S&P was flirting with its 3000 level. Breadth does remain bullish, so that implies any downside action should be somewhat limited.

TSP Talk sentiment remains pretty bullish, more bullish than I'd be comfortable with given NAAIM's reading. The CBOE closed very high, which may be bearish for Monday.

I am modestly bearish for the new week, largely because of sentiment that is overall neutral. Remember that NAAIM is smart money, so that is the more important reading of the one's I follow.

 

[coolhand]

The market is still looking okay. Price on the S&P is trying to flirt with the 3000 level. Obviously, this could be resistance. The DWCPF pushed higher to the upside, but the chart is not all that inspiring, though price is above the 50 and 200 dma's. It has a lot of work to do to get back to its previous peak.

Breadth remains solidly bullish.

The bad news is that NAAIM did not change a whole lot. They were neutral before and remain so. They are implying that this market is still vulnerable as the bears among them have increased their short positions. Nothing dramatic, but it is hard to get overly bullish when the smart money is neutral.

Given the S&P is flirting with the 3000 area, the NAAIM reading suggests we head back down again soon, but by how much I am not sure. If they were bearish overall, I'd be more concerned.

 

[coolhand]

Not much changed today. We are still not seeing the DWCPF come to life. It dipped on the day, but remains above key levels.

Breadth remains bullish. The CBOE has not reported. Overall, we are about where we were yesterday from a technical perspective. NAAIM reports sometime Thursday.

 

[coolhand]

As anticipated, the market moved higher once again. For hefty gains too. Price on the DWCPF has now recaptured its 50 dma. Both charts have improved quickly, but there is more work for the bulls to do before they can relax.

Cumulative breadth, already bullish, moved higher still. The CBOE remains bullish.

I suspect the market will digest gains soon. I don't think it can rally on without some consolidation. The DWCPF has some catching up to do as well. I really would like to see that index outpace the S&P as it would lend more credence that the rally might have legs.

 

[coolhand]

The market chopped around to begin the new week. The technical indicators did not change much. The CBOE is bullish again. Breadth remains bullish.

I don't have much to add this evening. I remain modestly bullish for the week.

 

[coolhand]

Here is what I said prior to the start of last Monday's trading,

"I like what I am seeing from a bullish perspective. I am cautiously optimistic that a bottom may be in. But until NAAIM takes a more bullish stance, we have to temper upside expectations. I am anticipating a positive week."

As the week played, price was kept under pressure and went neutral and then modestly bearish by mid-week. To be honest, and I indicated this in my posts, the indicators were not helping us all that much as price kept following the news.

Then, the bulls got some upward traction on Thursday. And then on Friday word of progress in the China trade arena sent stocks soaring even more. And guess what...we closed with gains for the week.

It was a tough week to trade for sure.

Price on the S&P is now firmly above its 50 dma. Price on the DWPCF is back above its 200 dma and is currently testing its 50 dma. Breadth has improved dramatically is bullish. The CBOE is bullish. NAAIM is still neutral, however. But that reading came before the China trade news. They likely made adjustments since, but I can't guess where they might stand now.

Friday's action was bullish. There was conviction in the move. Breadth is looking very good, very quickly. I am going out on a limb and say that there is likely more upside to be had.

 

[nnuut]

The Market is NNUUTS!!!

 

[nasa1974]

Yeah, this article pretty much sums up my current feelings.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nonsense-market-moves-investors-exhausted-181659112.html

Interesting article. If the markets hold today, I know it's still early, I wish I was all in instead of 50/50 G/S. But 50% of something is better than 50% of nothing.

 

[coolhand]

Yeah, this article pretty much sums up my current feelings.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nonsense-market-moves-investors-exhausted-181659112.html

 

[coolhand]

So, the DWCPF has successfully tested support multiple times. The chart still looks dicey as there is no real evidence of solid buying activity. At least in terms of a sustained rally. The S&P 500 closed back above its 50 dma, but not with any real authority. It's as if the market is simply being kept from falling apart rather than trying to resume its bullish longer term bias. Now, that doesn't mean things can't change and the market at some point soars to the upside. That could still happen.

I saw that the traders on Trader's Talk also noted that the OEX data is no longer being supported on stockcharts. This was a smart money indicator for me, but was largely only useful in the very short term (daily). In fact, stockcharts no longer recognizes the symbol to pull up the data, so it's gone. Wonder why?

The CBOE is still available and is showing the dumb money as being bullish. As I have noted in previous posts, I can no longer use it as a contrarian indicator as it often is in line with the following day's market action.

NAAIM was largely unchanged today and remains neutral. No real help there other than to suggest a floor under the market and ceiling over it.

Breadth flipped positive again, but the problem is that it's tracking sideways and is no longer in an uptrend.

I have nothing to indicate that market character is going to change. I think we continue to see up/down action, but it may have a bias to the downside.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

We got the bounce, but it was underwhelming. For the most part, the charts did not change.

Breadth did move higher and is back to a neutral stance. TRINQ, which was bullish yesterday, is now somewhat bearish for Thursday. TRIN remains neutral.

The options are still not posting correctly. The OEX is still showing last Friday's chart. The CBOE posted for yesterday (finally), but not for today (yet). They normally get posted around 6 pm and shortly thereafter. I am not sure what to think. I say that because J.P. Morgan is under criminal investigation (RICO) for fraud (among other things). There is a lot going on that we do not have visibility of, so I get suspicious easy these days.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. That should be interesting.

I note that futures have fallen hard after hours on sour China trade talks. We may be headed to the June lows. A lot can happen before the open, so I won't speculate too much.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/oex.asp

 

[coolhand]

CH- why so interested or place so much weight on X22 report...I am sure you have explained before so pardon my ignorance...
EJJ

Our world is changing quickly. If anyone out there is unaware (there are many), I suggest you think about finding out what is really going on because we will all be impacted in some way as we move forward. I don't want this to sound ominous (in the end things will be great), but there may very well be a period of time where there is uncertainty. If you are informed, you can at least be prepared. This subject is too deep for me to get into particulars, that's why I push the X22 Report. It's about getting informed to what is for many, a hidden reality.

WWG1WGA

 

[shitepoke]

CH- why so interested or place so much weight on X22 report...I am sure you have explained before so pardon my ignorance...
EJJ

 

[coolhand]

We got the bounce, but it was underwhelming. For the most part, the charts did not change.

Breadth did move higher and is back to a neutral stance. TRINQ, which was bullish yesterday, is now somewhat bearish for Thursday. TRIN remains neutral.

The options are still not posting correctly. The OEX is still showing last Friday's chart. The CBOE posted for yesterday (finally), but not for today (yet). They normally get posted around 6 pm and shortly thereafter. I am not sure what to think. I say that because J.P. Morgan is under criminal investigation (RICO) for fraud (among other things). There is a lot going on that we do not have visibility of, so I get suspicious easy these days.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. That should be interesting.

I note that futures have fallen hard after hours on sour China trade talks. We may be headed to the June lows. A lot can happen before the open, so I won't speculate too much.

 

[coolhand]

My dumb money went in on the 1st. Still have 60% in G standing by. Thought about pulling all out to G but then I miss out on the bottom IF it gets confirmed sometime soon.

The reason so many continue to invest or time the market is that there is few other places to make money. TSP does not allow shorting and we only have 2 IFTs (generally) per month, so we're handcuffed there. There is no real money in the G fund either, but it does serve as a safe haven in times of uncertainty. Money rates have been in the dirt for well over a decade. That isn't helping retirees who want to play it safe since they generally don't want to work if they can avoid it. They don't want the risks of stocks either. But "they" want us in their manipulated market and not in cash or the sidelines. Or gold or silver. Or Crypto. Blah, blah, blah. X22 Report is one the best sites for explaining the financial risks we are all facing.

While it may seem we have control over our financial future, the reality is that most cannot navigate the Central Bank system of manipulation. It is a global multi-headed cabal (monster) that is not interested in our financial well-being.

 

[BooDog]

In my opinion, dumb money is buying now
Look at the max chart for the SPY. I see 211 in the next 3 to 6 months. I wouldn't touch this market with a 60' pole. All signs point to huge sell off.

Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

My dumb money went in on the 1st. Still have 60% in G standing by. Thought about pulling all out to G but then I miss out on the bottom IF it gets confirmed sometime soon.