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coolhand's Account Talk
- Thread starter coolhand
- Start date
coolhand
Well-known member
Depending on which index you look at, you either made money or lost some money. In other words, the indexes closed mixed.
You have to like the S&P chart; it's patently bullish. The DWCPF is doing okay, but still has some work to do to get into orbit with the S&P.
The CBOE is bullish this evening. Remember that last week NAAIM was neutral, though the action has still shown a positive bias (so far). It will be interesting if their stance changes on Thursday.
Breadth is tracking sideways, but remains bullish.
No change to my market expectations. I remain neutral to modestly bullish.
You have to like the S&P chart; it's patently bullish. The DWCPF is doing okay, but still has some work to do to get into orbit with the S&P.
The CBOE is bullish this evening. Remember that last week NAAIM was neutral, though the action has still shown a positive bias (so far). It will be interesting if their stance changes on Thursday.
Breadth is tracking sideways, but remains bullish.
No change to my market expectations. I remain neutral to modestly bullish.
coolhand
Well-known member
Friday's positive action was certainly interesting given how tired the market was acting. The TSP stock funds posted decent gains on the week. And now the S&P 500 has pushed even higher with no upside resistance to oppose it.
The CBOE is pretty bullish for Monday. Cumulative breadth has turned up hard and suggests it may have legs, but no guarantee on that. TRIN and TRINQ are actually bearish from a contrarian perspective, which is how I normally use it, but is this market normal? No, it's not. NAAIM is neutral, which isn't inspiring, but they aren't bearish either.
The TSP Talk survey remains pretty bullish. I can't trust that survey to the extent I used to. We've on the right side many times on extreme readings.
So, the indicators are collectively bullish as long as I do not use any signals as contrarian. The S&P chart is bullish regardless. The DWCPF is now testing its July highs. About another 50 points above that is its all-time high (Aug 2018).
If the powers that be want higher prices (and it seems they do), we should not fight it. But we could see a decline at any time. But that could be next week or sometime beyond that. And we are getting into the more bullish time of year.
I just don't have comfort in the bearish case. That's the bottom line. I remain neutral to modestly bullish.
The CBOE is pretty bullish for Monday. Cumulative breadth has turned up hard and suggests it may have legs, but no guarantee on that. TRIN and TRINQ are actually bearish from a contrarian perspective, which is how I normally use it, but is this market normal? No, it's not. NAAIM is neutral, which isn't inspiring, but they aren't bearish either.
The TSP Talk survey remains pretty bullish. I can't trust that survey to the extent I used to. We've on the right side many times on extreme readings.
So, the indicators are collectively bullish as long as I do not use any signals as contrarian. The S&P chart is bullish regardless. The DWCPF is now testing its July highs. About another 50 points above that is its all-time high (Aug 2018).
If the powers that be want higher prices (and it seems they do), we should not fight it. But we could see a decline at any time. But that could be next week or sometime beyond that. And we are getting into the more bullish time of year.
I just don't have comfort in the bearish case. That's the bottom line. I remain neutral to modestly bullish.
coolhand
Well-known member
The market managed to tack on gains today, but it was not exactly a show of force. The action seems tired.
Breadth did tick higher, but only a little. It remains bullish. TRIN and TRINQ are neutral.
NAAIM backed off their bullishness, but they are not bearish. They are now neutral. However, that lends some credence that the market may need to reset from lower. Understand that the bears among them are not making big, bearish bets, so they are not showing any conviction. It would seem that any weakness would likely be contained, should we get some.
I am not as bullish as I was given the change in NAAIM sentiment. I am now neutral to modestly bullish.
Breadth did tick higher, but only a little. It remains bullish. TRIN and TRINQ are neutral.
NAAIM backed off their bullishness, but they are not bearish. They are now neutral. However, that lends some credence that the market may need to reset from lower. Understand that the bears among them are not making big, bearish bets, so they are not showing any conviction. It would seem that any weakness would likely be contained, should we get some.
I am not as bullish as I was given the change in NAAIM sentiment. I am now neutral to modestly bullish.
coolhand
Well-known member
The market closed mixed today. The action continues to suggest preparation for the next push higher, but that doesn't mean a low is in. The rally is likely to come from lower.
I am posting cumulative bread for the NYSE, which is the chart I follow. I said yesterday that it is weakening, but still bullish. You can see the gentle slope lower, but the signal remains above the 2 key averages I've embedded. We can see in this chart that in the past the signal breached at least one of those averages before finding its footing and going into a sustained rise. This is why I think that the rally may come from lower.
NAAIM reports in the morning. I am still bullish, but as I said the market may need to pullback before it can get its footing for another push higher.
I am posting cumulative bread for the NYSE, which is the chart I follow. I said yesterday that it is weakening, but still bullish. You can see the gentle slope lower, but the signal remains above the 2 key averages I've embedded. We can see in this chart that in the past the signal breached at least one of those averages before finding its footing and going into a sustained rise. This is why I think that the rally may come from lower.
NAAIM reports in the morning. I am still bullish, but as I said the market may need to pullback before it can get its footing for another push higher.
Cactus
Well-known member
Well the answer to inefficient government run programs has traditionally been the private sector. Just look at SpaceX and the other private rocket companies bringing down the cost of entering space.
So what about the private educational institutions and for-profit universities? Are they significantly cheaper than the state run universities? The last time I looked they were actually more expensive but were good at getting students federal loans and putting them deeper into debt.
So what about the private educational institutions and for-profit universities? Are they significantly cheaper than the state run universities? The last time I looked they were actually more expensive but were good at getting students federal loans and putting them deeper into debt.
FAAM
Member
IDK... my part of our Administration has hired a bunch of Engineers from variety of universities in the last couple of years... all are quite sharp & seemed to have received as good an education as those 30-to-40 years ago. Agree with a lot of your higher education comments Whip, costs escalation and all, though I know in my State Universities, a large factor of cost increases have been great diminishing of State support/contributions since 70's/80's (big lumber price declines & already cut down most of the Old Growth forests on State DNR land - proceeds of that are mostly used for education; oh, and that public want same or more while cutting taxes over that time. Suppose I guess, that'll all be repaired when, similar to what you said of higher-ed, our way-way expensive per capita health care in USA with way-way poor performance on national averages & statistics for our HC$ -- when that is fixed too. Would be nice to fix both of those: think these would be major long-term lifts for our National economy.
Whipsaw
Well-known member
WRT the cost of higher education, the institutions that provide them are out of control, suffer from largess and are unconstrained on spending (and educational salaries, paid sabbaticals, free online courses (who's paying the instructors? They're not working for free), and are no longer providing quality educations; certainly not at the rates they are charging the students. Especially in the nonsensical majors that they are offering, and the lack of guidance to the students into majors and courses of study and grade performance that will actually make them employable. The liberal indoctrination centers need to be shut down and true centers for higher educations and learning, at a reasonable cost, should be established.
FAAM
Member
"Here-Here" (or Hear-Hear?)!! At the very least, student loans in general should be very low interest rate with extremely reasonable and flexible terms, and GOV-backed on progressive scale for those of little or no means, credible backgrounds and nationally-beneficial degree fields. (I hear the other opinions on this, yet I don't think these ideas are mutually exclusive - such a large-scale and multifaceted issue - can be reasoned out with more detail among reasonable & objective citizens)... This, as other things, are or can be "smart" costs that are actually very fruitful investments by society & government. Evil, and the evil one are lurking everywhere sneakily, lest anyone get too comfortable with with a given position or public issue or idea. Alas, at end of day I must give it all up to Him and pray for all to be used to His glory & purpose.
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rangerray
Member
Yep. The universities should have their own skin in the game. They should compete with each other for our students dollars.
coolhand
Well-known member
We have a Central Banking system that is debt based. They encourage debt...lots of it. It is what keeps us enslaved without physical shackles. And not just us, but most countries around the world. Our Federal Reserve is not "Federal" and is not a part of our country. It is not bound by our laws or accountable to we the people. It is a parasitic entity that masquerades as something it is not. And it is part of a much bigger creature to include the ECB, IMF, BIZ, etc.
This country did not have a Central Banking system before 1913. It was ushered in covertly and we have been stuck with it ever since. That will change, god willing. It is part of the old Babylonian system from biblical times. It does not serve us or God, it serves the beast.
This country did not have a Central Banking system before 1913. It was ushered in covertly and we have been stuck with it ever since. That will change, god willing. It is part of the old Babylonian system from biblical times. It does not serve us or God, it serves the beast.
pmaloney
Member
Successful is not a definition of a culture that allows payment / negative interest for saving money! That is EU / multinational failure defined in economic terms.
I paid for my son's education because I did not want him to be trapped in debt and because I could afford it.
With God's grace, he has a BS in CS from a State Tech U and is doing very well.
It is the Fed Gov backing of loans that have insured College prices to go exponentially higher and promote further Socialist / Communist / Globalist World Domination and indoctrination of our children.
I respect you and your opinions, but they are extremely political and negate the fact that we will probably not be able to save European folly again, because they have already fallen to Socialism / Communism / Cultural Islamic Jihadist cultural assaults, probably soon to become the global UN dominated states..
I could say more but, this is extremely POLITICAL I don't think I have ever ventured into the political issues area, unless you are offended by my affirmation that JESUS is our LORD, who saves us through his Devine love, mercy, grace and sacrifice from our prideful inequity.
However, if you can say that, I must say this, especially because the myth of the successful Norwegian socialist experiment are inaccurate and outdated and a dangerous talking points similar to the leftist /globalist wish for a recession to turn the tide of the upcoming election. which effects our TSP retirement accounts.
Sincerely written with prayers and best wishes for all.
I paid for my son's education because I did not want him to be trapped in debt and because I could afford it.
With God's grace, he has a BS in CS from a State Tech U and is doing very well.
It is the Fed Gov backing of loans that have insured College prices to go exponentially higher and promote further Socialist / Communist / Globalist World Domination and indoctrination of our children.
I respect you and your opinions, but they are extremely political and negate the fact that we will probably not be able to save European folly again, because they have already fallen to Socialism / Communism / Cultural Islamic Jihadist cultural assaults, probably soon to become the global UN dominated states..
I could say more but, this is extremely POLITICAL I don't think I have ever ventured into the political issues area, unless you are offended by my affirmation that JESUS is our LORD, who saves us through his Devine love, mercy, grace and sacrifice from our prideful inequity.
However, if you can say that, I must say this, especially because the myth of the successful Norwegian socialist experiment are inaccurate and outdated and a dangerous talking points similar to the leftist /globalist wish for a recession to turn the tide of the upcoming election. which effects our TSP retirement accounts.
Sincerely written with prayers and best wishes for all.
James48843
Well-known member
Yeh- and to think most civilized European nations are able to educate their youth without charges, loans or debt.
Too bad we don’t learn to be more like successful others with our national priorities.
Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
Too bad we don’t learn to be more like successful others with our national priorities.
Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
Student Loan Debt may be one of the largest drags on the economy out there! Hate to think where I would be today if my parents didn't pay for my tuition to get me through school. Think of all the goods and services these kids can't afford to buy due to the student debt they owe. Cars, houses, furniture, boats, etc. I believe the economy would be rolling without this debt.
coolhand
Well-known member
The market is tracking sideways at the moment. Could be setting up for another move to the upside.
Breadth remains positive, but continues to slowly weaken. The CBOE remains bullish. Everything else looks rather neutral.
The bulls remain in control, but the market may be slowly coiling for another push higher. I remain bullish.
Breadth remains positive, but continues to slowly weaken. The CBOE remains bullish. Everything else looks rather neutral.
The bulls remain in control, but the market may be slowly coiling for another push higher. I remain bullish.
coolhand
Well-known member
The bears tried to take the market down early in the trading day, but the bulls fought back for a mixed close.
Nothing has changed with my indicators, however I should point out that cumulative breadth is weakening. It's still bullish, but slowly trending lower. We could see a pullback soon, but I don't know that it will amount to whole lot. Overall, the picture remains bullish.
Nothing has changed with my indicators, however I should point out that cumulative breadth is weakening. It's still bullish, but slowly trending lower. We could see a pullback soon, but I don't know that it will amount to whole lot. Overall, the picture remains bullish.
coolhand
Well-known member
There are so many problems. Student debt is another one. My wife worked at Universal Studios here in Orlando and there were many employees with 4 and 6 year degrees making not much more than minimum wage. Most could only get part time hours. She said that it wasn't unusual for some of her co-workers to ask for loose change among other co-workers because they could not afford gas or buy food to the extent they wanted to. And if you had a family...well, that's tragic.
https://www.sgtreport.com/2019/11/nearly-half-of-all-u-s-workers-are-low-wage-with-18000-salary-best-economy-ever/
Valkyrie
Well-known member
some are writing that this is the next problem.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-45-0...are-going-underwater-on-car-loans-11573295400
Consumers, salespeople and lenders are treating cars a lot like houses during the last financial crisis: by piling on debt to such a degree that it often exceeds the car’s value. This phenomenon—referred to as negative equity, or being underwater—can leave car owners trapped.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-45-0...are-going-underwater-on-car-loans-11573295400
Consumers, salespeople and lenders are treating cars a lot like houses during the last financial crisis: by piling on debt to such a degree that it often exceeds the car’s value. This phenomenon—referred to as negative equity, or being underwater—can leave car owners trapped.
