coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

While the S&P 500 dipped modestly today, our DWCPF chart tacked on more gains and appears to have broken free of resistance.



Looking at cumulative breadth (above), we see that money printing is still in progress. The signal is moving quickly above the averages I use to determine market conditions (bullish, bearish, neutral).

Keep in mind that as long as the Fed is printing like crazy, some of our indicators may not work or will be rendered ineffective. I stopped using the CBOE in a contrarian fashion months ago because I noticed that some timing tools were becoming somewhat of a liability or produced spotty results. I think it is safe to assume that the money printing has been forced in order to keep the "too big to fail" banks afloat. They are not likely to back off this printing quickly. The derivatives market and leveraged instruments will implode without continued intervention. That is the playground of the banks. There is a reason why NAAIM has been bullish lately. That is smart money.

This evening, the CBOE is bullish once more (they seem to get it too). TRIN and TRINQ are leaning bullish (another indicator I historically used in contrarian fashion, but not with the money printing going on).

I remain bullish. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

 

[coolhand]

The upward bias continued today. It should be no surprise that the bias remains up based on current indicators and high level influence.

This evening, the CBOE is bullish. TRIN and TRINQ remain neutral. Cumulative breadth is still rising (bullish).

No change. Conditions remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

If you took a look at my previous 2 posts, you would know that there is massive (and that's an understatement) money printing going on. And it isn't trickling down to us either. The previous 2 posts gave charts that showed how the market rises when injections are made. The market is not rising on sentiment or seasonality or fundamentals, but money printing. You have to review the info in those previous 2 posts to better understand all of this.



Notice how one of my favorite charts is rising as well (NYSE Cumulative Breadth). It has been and remains bullish.

TRIN and TRINQ are 2 indicators that I watch in order to try and discern market direction on a daily basis. They have been largely neutral for weeks now. I'm just not seeing as much volatility as I once did. Just saying.

Nothing has changed with my perspective. I am bullish, but hardly complacent.

 

[coolhand]

Here's another article pointing out the same thing my previous post did.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-needs-1-trillion-panic-money-printing-stave-implosion-not-market

 

[coolhand]

This is a post to follow up on one I posted a few days ago (below). There are a lot of high level financial folks follow this situation.

https://www.sgtreport.com/2019/12/epic-times-imminent-as-massive-fed-flood-begins-warren-buffett-indicator-worst-level-ever/

Very few can understand how the CB operates at the highest levels, but for those of you who have at least some basic understanding, you might be interested in this post...

"It's About to Get Very Bad" - Repo Market Legend Predicts Market Crash in Days! | Markets

 

[coolhand]

Last week, the C and S funds both closed out with weekly gains; though the S fund was only marginally higher. The S fund has lagged the C fund for some time now, but it is still bullish.

The CBOE remains bullish (for Monday). TSP Talk sentiment shows that we are heavily bullish. NAAIM, the most important sentiment reading that I follow is also bullish.

Cumulative breadth on the NYSE remains bullish. I don't mention seasonality much anymore, but this time of year it is hard to ignore. It is historically bullish.

There are reasons to not trust this market despite the bullish indicators that I follow, but market direction is heavily influenced at the top as many of us have noted. And that influence can go on seemingly forever. It is not (and hasn't been for a long time now) a free and open market. Fundamentals are not of much value. Those are manipulated too. I hope some of you are listening to the X22 Report. They do a great job of framing reality.

Having said all that, I remain bullish based on the indicators alone.

 

[MaStA]

I tried fighting the bull market last year by sitting on the sidelines after getting crushed earlier thinking a correction was coming. I went all in after I had enough and havent looked back. Forget trying to fight and time this current market.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

 

[coolhand]

I went against your calls. Big mistake!
My IFT's are done for Dec./19.
This market makes no sense to me!
But I should learn to listen to folks that are smarter than me!
Thanks for your perspective.
It is very, very valuable!


Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

YW! :smile:

Yes, things are crazy. And sooner or later this market will roll over. There are no shortage of very visible pros out there who expected this market to fall apart years ago.

Manipulation can be exercised with long term success. Eventually, it too will fail, but it is almost impossible to predict with accuracy.

 

[1965Vintage]

The S&P 500 broke out to the upside today, which I've been expecting. The DWCPF, which also rallied, did not break out. But it isn't far from doing so if can sustain an upward bias heading into the holidays.

The CBOE is bullish for Friday. TRIN and TRINQ look bullish for Friday as well.

View attachment 45140

Cumulative breadth on the NYSE has come on smartly over the past week and half or so. You can see by the chart it is breaking to the upside after more than a month of range bound movement.

NAAIM came in relatively unchanged, which is bullish.

Today's bullish action coupled with the bullish indicators I've noted above suggests this upside move may have legs. Seasonality also supports that outcome.

I remain bullish.

I went against your calls. Big mistake!
My IFT's are done for Dec./19.
This market makes no sense to me!
But I should learn to listen to folks that are smarter than me!
Thanks for your perspective.
It is very, very valuable!


Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

 

[coolhand]

The S&P 500 broke out to the upside today, which I've been expecting. The DWCPF, which also rallied, did not break out. But it isn't far from doing so if can sustain an upward bias heading into the holidays.

The CBOE is bullish for Friday. TRIN and TRINQ look bullish for Friday as well.



Cumulative breadth on the NYSE has come on smartly over the past week and half or so. You can see by the chart it is breaking to the upside after more than a month of range bound movement.

NAAIM came in relatively unchanged, which is bullish.

Today's bullish action coupled with the bullish indicators I've noted above suggests this upside move may have legs. Seasonality also supports that outcome.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

It was another choppy trading day, but this time the averages closed above the neutral line. Still, it was nothing to get excited about, though the bulls can remain confident given price is holding not far below resistance. At some point, I expect that resistance will get tested and I am leaning toward an upside break when it does.

The CBOE has not reported at the time of this writing. TRIN and TRINQ are neutral. Cumulative breadth ticked higher on the NYSE and hit another high. It's has been and remains bullish.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Price danced above and below the neutral line on the charts today, settling modestly lower at the close. The action did little to change my indicators.

This evening, the CBOE is bearish. TRIN and TRINQ are neutral. Breadth dipped slightly lower, but remains bullish.

The market seems to be having some trouble near its peak as resistance is holding so far, but I suspect the market is waiting for some kind of event to propel higher. I say higher because this is still a bull market and the longer term should kept in that context. Yes, many of us are aware that things are not what they seem, but good luck predicting exactly when "it's different this time".

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Very few can understand how the CB operates at the highest levels, but for those of you who have at least some basic understanding, you might be interested in this post...

"It's About to Get Very Bad" - Repo Market Legend Predicts Market Crash in Days! | Markets

 

[coolhand]

The market opened the week with a moderate pullback this Monday. It was a perfectly healthy dip and price remains near its highs on both the S&P and DWCPF. This is an area of resistance, but I expect price to eventually push through this area to upside.

My indicators did not change much today. The CBOE is neutral. Breadth remains bullish.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The market closed out the week last week relatively unchanged. Friday's rally was a big boost for the bulls. The chart(s) show a possible "V" bottom or a bull flag. But price is near resistance, so we'll have to see if price can move past it.

Cumulative breadth, which was under pressure early last week, is now at another high for the NYSE. Amazing how fast things can turn.

The CBOE is neutral for Monday. TSP Talk is less bullish, but still bullish. NAAIM is also bullish, and that's the one to follow.

Still not change to my outlook, which is bullish. Seasonality gets more bullish as we move forward, so the bulls have some leverage to drive this market higher.

 

[coolhand]

Bulls and bears battled to somewhat of a draw today.

This evening, the CBOE is neutral. TRINQ is bullish (Naz) for Friday. Breadth ticked a bit higher and remains bullish, but in a horizontal trading channel.

NAAIM came in relatively unchanged, so they remain collectively bullish.

Friday looks like it may be a positive day. My longer term outlook remains bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Wow. I respect your opinion. But this is a fools market. In my opinion of course....
Soon we shall see. I wish the best for all!
Thanks again for your daily perspective. It is a valuable part of my research. I value your opinion.
Live long and prosper!



Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

There has been numerous times over the months that I have cautioned that this market is extremely deceptive. I tell folks to watch the daily X22 Report to get an idea of why I say so. However, I can't be a perma bear as the market can be irrational longer than any of us can remain solvent. So, I follow the indicators that I like and set my underlying concerns about the market aside and simply let folks know what I see on a daily basis. I've stated such in the past. No one should be surprised when the bull goes down, however. We just can't predict it with any precision.

Thanks for the drive by. :smile:

 

[1965Vintage]

Wow. I respect your opinion. But this is a fools market. In my opinion of course....
Soon we shall see. I wish the best for all!
Thanks again for your daily perspective. It is a valuable part of my research. I value your opinion.
Live long and prosper!



Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

 

[coolhand]

The bulls bounced the market today, retracing a portion of the previous 2 days of losses. At this point, it may be just an oversold bounce with another test of the lows on the horizon. I suspect we'll know in the next few trading days.

This evening, the CBOE is bullish. TRIN and TRINQ are neutral. Breadth flipped back to positive, but the signal is near the center of a 5-week trading range, so I can't get too excited about it. However, this does remain a bull market and the most positive seasonality of the year is approaching. NAAIM being bullish doesn't hurt either.

I remain longer term bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Thank you (sir?) again for sharing keen thoughts, insights. Tsunami on his thread posted about waves; perhaps up now, then down, with another UP perhaps next Tuesday. I waded a bit more into CSI COB Monday leaving some in F and most in G, still. So, keeping some powder dry hoping both your hopes/thoughts come true in a week or so. Yet, wondering what a zero-trade deal and the other twit-tariffs could do on that 15-DEC deadline(?). Hope not for a repeat of last year where Market Santa needed a Rudolph or something. G'day!

There are many news events coming over the next couple of months that a are very likely to drive the market (FISA, Brexit, Trade, Tariffs, etc.). Those are the ones that are known, but there will some that we won't see coming. These events are used for more than 1 purpose, but 1 of them is to drive the market for the purpose of optics; and optics drives public perception. The longer term trend remains a bull until proven otherwise. NAAIM is our friend and they're bullish. :smile: