coolhand's Account Talk

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Warrenlm said:
coolhand, any thoughts on the implications of the jobs number this morning, including the revision of last month, on the near term direction of the market?
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Doesn't matter what I think at this point. The market is being flooded with cash and it's being used to push prices higher. I don't know when this activity is going to stop, but fundamentals apparently don't matter right now. Not that I trade off them, I don't. But no indicator is going to work when the market decides to get silly. We could make a parabolic move higher from here (that could last longer than would seem realistic) or we could crash and burn. It's that wide open.

I'm thinking about taking a 50/50 position (cash/equities), but I'm not sure at this moment whether I'll do that or not.
 
The UBS guy on Squawk Box said if the DOW goes up another 1000, run for the bomb shelter. Gross was negative also.
 
This market is in trouble short term. Look for volatility today at the least. We could sell off today or Monday. It doesn't have to last, but that's what I'm expecting.

Forget about my thought on going 50/50 cash/equities for now. It was a momentary lapse of reason.
 
coolhand said:
Doesn't matter what I think at this point. The market is being flooded with cash and it's being used to push prices higher. I don't know when this activity is going to stop, but fundamentals apparently don't matter right now. Not that I trade off them, I don't. But no indicator is going to work when the market decides to get silly. We could make a parabolic move higher from here (that could last longer than would seem realistic) or we could crash and burn. It's that wide open.

I'm thinking about taking a 50/50 position (cash/equities), but I'm not sure at this moment whether I'll do that or not.
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I agree 100%. We could study the charts and data all day, but this market completely ignores all, but sentiment reports, which I think is useless. Everything's better than expected and that's the new way of thinking. I think at this time, no one really knows what's going on.
 
"Call it, you have everything to win. Just call it. It's either heads or tails"



I don't know. I try to follow sentiment closely for when it's time to make certain moves and the verdict is still out as far as it's efficiency. To me, sentiment only matters when it's at extremes. We had extremes in October of 2007 and October and 2008. Something to think about. We also had bullish extremes in November 2008, March 2009. Anyone who bought at those extremes (in hindsight of course) is in positive territory YTD. (So if you're a hedge fund, this is very very important.)

Unless we're front-running indicators, I don't see any bearish or bullish implications in the AAII. I agree with Mark on this one.
 
Bullitt said:
Unless we're front-running indicators, I don't see any bearish or bullish implications in the AAII. I agree with Mark on this one.
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I'm just looking for an IT here. It doesn't even have to be ugly; and I doubt it would be as sentiment does not support it. Mark's comment notwithstanding, his indicators have been somewhat whipsawed too.

Things could change quickly once underlying market forces change the script. :rolleyes:
 
I have to wonder sometimes- how much does the market really know? If it has everything factored into it, then it has to be the unknown unknowns or unexpected unknowns that cause it to go up or down. So when I hear all this talk about commercial real estate going down the septic tank, how much of this is already factored into the market? If commercial real estate will be as bad as the headlines, shouldn't that be an known unknown- and already factored into things? We give 'The Market' too much credit sometimes. Example: Oil at $145 a barrel one year ago because of....... China?

We're going to see a correction just because it's what wall street wants. I haven't ruled it out. However, I'm trying to know if 'this is it' until 2020 once we turn down, or if it is just going to be a correction in an on-going 'cyclical bear market bull rally'. (Is that such a term?)
 
Bullitt said:
However, I'm trying to know if 'this is it' until 2020 once we turn down, or if it is just going to be a correction in an on-going 'cyclical bear market bull rally'. (Is that such a term?)
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Good luck figuring that one out. lol

We need another Edgar Cayce. :cheesy:
 
You folks have heard me say before that Mish Shedlock is my favorite economist/blogger. I didn't know a whole lot about him other than just about everything he talks about in his blog I tend to agree with. And he pulls no punches either.

Teknobucks sent me this link today with a current youtube video of Mish speaking to a group of folks on the economy. I found out that he is not an economist, but a former techie. He explains his roots early on in the video and goes on to provide a brief synopsis of the economy before taking questions from this group of folks.

What struck me about Mish is that he certainly appears to be a regular Joe like any one of us on this MB. He's worked his butt off to get where he is, but has taken his lumps along the way.

Take some time to watch it. It's very good.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YKc0UolTqE&feature=player_embedded
 
Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that I know I'm primarily posting negative stuff. I figure if you want the other side you can always read Birchtree's thread. :cheesy:
 
Looks like we're heading back down again, but probably only for a day or two. Sentiment will probably prevent a major decline. Tough to trade with TSP though.
 
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