coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

It didn't take long to put those 2 weak trading days in the rear view mirror. The S&P closed at yet another all-time high today. The DWCPF is testing its previous high now, but has yet to push through it. No doubt it will, however.

The CBOE is leaning bullish this evening. TRINQ is bullish, while TRIN is neutral. NAAIM remains solidly bullish, though they had a few bears among them this week.

Amazing what money printing can do for a market. Some analysts think the upside will get much crazier down the road. I suspect they may be right.

 

[coolhand]

The NAAIM reading for today (the next week) shows a modest amount of bears this time, but does little to change the overall reading,which is bullish. Most of these money managers remained long.

 

[pmaloney]

Thank you Coolhand. Busy in the world week for me, but though I rarely share on Facebook this was too good not to share.
I love our LORD Jesus Christ, and trust in his wisdom and love which will lead our salvation and his greater union.


Thanks again!

 

[coolhand]

Happy New Year Everyone! May the New Year will be healthy and prosperous for you all.

The market closed out the year on a positive note, with the averages retracing a good portion of recent losses.



The charts do not suggest anything will change as far as market character goes. We can see that cumulative breadth hit a fresh high on Tuesday after dipping for 2 straight days. This chart remains solidly bullish (of course).

The CBOE is neutral. TRIN and TRINQ are leaning bullish for Thursday. We know that NAAIM is heavily bulled up, but a fresh survey is due on Thursday. I seriously doubt we see much change, but we'll know soon enough.

I see no reason to fear the technical picture as it remains firmly bullish.

 

[ravensfan]

How beautiful is this Christmas production? Hail to our King!!! Peace be with you all. :smile:

Ahh Peter Hollens. Been a fan of his for sometime now. He has done a number of songs from "The Hobbit and Lord of the Rings" movies. Such a great talent.

Thanks for posting this coolhand. Have a Happy New Year!!!

 

[coolhand]

End-of-year trading continued to see selling pressure with one day to go before the New Year. It is not unusual at all and is healthy in order to set up the next move higher. I don't see cash injections stopping anytime soon. That is almost certain to force prices higher over time.



We can see that breadth is pulling back, but remains bullish.

The CBOE is bearish again this evening.

I suspect the selling will continue on Tuesday, but I do not anticipate it will be of any real consequence. The trend remains solidly bullish.

 

[coolhand]

On Friday, the market closed mixed, but we did have a positive week. The S&P fared better than the DWCPF as the DWCPF was flat overall.

At the close on Friday, the CBOE settled on the bearish side. TRIN was bearish, but the TRINQ was neutral. These readings only apply to Monday.

Cumulative breadth dipped for the first time in more than 3 weeks.

It could be that we are seeing some subtle profit taking as the year winds down. I don't think any profit taking will significantly alter market character. With continuing market cash injections, I suspect the market will remain quite resistant to negative pressure. I say this in large part because the smart money (NAAIM) is heavily bullish.

For this reason, I remain bullish as well.

 

[coolhand]

The market picked up where it left off as the averages continued their upward bias.



How vertical is the signal going to get for cumulative breadth? The 21 day EMA has not had a negative cross of the 39 day EMA in recent months.

TRIN and TRINQ are biasing lower in recent weeks, which is bullish.

As crazy as this market is, the upside has the potential to go a lot higher despite the risks.

I remain bullish.

 

[wahinepio]

Magnificent. All Glory to His Majesty. and peace to all friends.

 

[coolhand]

How beautiful is this Christmas production? Hail to our King!!! Peace be with you all. :smile:

 

[1965Vintage]

Merry Christmas Coolhand! :smile:

 

[pmaloney]

Merry Christmas! :smile:

 

[coolhand]

It was a shortened trading day, this Christmas Eve. And uneventful.

Nothing has changed in my expectations or my indicators. Merry Christmas everyone.



John 3:16

For God so loved the world that He gave His only begotten Son, that whoever believes in Him should not perish but have everlasting life.

 

[coolhand]

The market wasn't up big today, but it ended the day on the plus side (S&P and DWCPF).

This evening, the CBOE is bullish. TRIN and TRINQ are leaning bullish. Breadth remains bullish. Sentiment is currently bullish. The charts are bullish and so is seasonality.

You can probably draw your own conclusions by now. :laugh:

 

[Mcqlives]

Unfortunately I believe you are correct. The whole theory of central banks injecting capital and having this much influence is counter to basic capitalism. This be comes more blatantly obvious the longer it goes on. Go look at communist (or socialist) economies that have failed throughout the past 100 yrs and history shows what happens sooner or later. Weaning off the addiction of the amounts our fed is involved in will be very painful at some point. Hope I’m in g when it happens...and still know it will hurt.

 

[coolhand]

Awesome and brief summary. The overnight lending is insane and the cumulative amounts not getting paid back is stacking up to be huge. Scary when this House of card’s Falls

I wish more people understood the mechanics of central banks and why they are not good for the people. It is financial slavery to both people and nations!

 

[Mcqlives]

Awesome and brief summary. The overnight lending is insane and the cumulative amounts not getting paid back is stacking up to be huge. Scary when this House of card’s Falls

 

[coolhand]

Both the C and S funds tacked on big gains last week, and it is very like there are more gains ahead.



This chart, which I have been posted about once a week of late, is flat out bullish. This is not a trivial market data point. It's a very important one and dovetails with the NAAIM sentiment readings. This is the cumulative breadth chart I speak to in pretty much all of my market posts.

At the close on Friday, the CBOE remained bullish. TRIN and TRINQ remain neutral. NAAIM is very bullish as is TSP Talk. Seasonality supports the bullish case as well.

It doesn't hurt that the central bank is printing money (out of survival). That is a big reason why I am bullish. It is in the bull's favor.

Having said that, that does not mean risk is meaningless. It is actually high simply because the central bank is scrambling to stay afloat. But, as I've pointed out several times in the past, we cannot predict how long this may go on. It could be a day, week, month or more than a year.

If sentiment at NAAIM changes, that would be a good clue to make an adjustment (if it changes enough).

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi CH, Thank you so much for your daily postings on your read of the indicators and all the valuable information you provide. It's a must read for me! I especially learned from your $NYAD chart (breadth) yesterday, plus the commentary!

Best wishes to you and God Bless you!

 

[coolhand]

Are you getting tired of winning yet? :smile:

It seems this market is on a mission and that mission is higher prices. We knew that. The indicators I use are telling us this. The S&P and DWCPF are both rising together as we head into the most seasonally positive time of year.

The CBOE has not reported, but I don't need it. They have been bullish and suspect they still are. The big news for the week is that NAAIM, which was already bullish, is now about a bullish as they can get.

Breadth continues to lift off even higher.

There isn't much else to add. NAAIM is saying "full steam ahead"!