coolhand's Account Talk

The train just keeps on rolling.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Both charts show price hitting fresh highs. There is no resistance overhead.

NYAD.png

Cumulative breadth also hit a fresh high. This chart has been neutral to bullish about 95% of time for several months.

TRIN and TRINQ are neutral.

I would not step in front of this market. Aside from some relatively modest to moderate pullbacks since October, this thing looks to be on a mission. It is possible that 2020 is a big year for longs. Yes, risk has not gone away, but I'm not betting against the printing presses (not to mention NAAIM and Breadth).
 
Here is another angle of the financial battle that is taking place.

2020-01-13_12-36-54.png

We can see that silver really took off from early June to early September and then it hit a wall and was turned back. I find it interesting that the peak came about the time that the massive money printing began. That was not coincidence. Some of the banks have massive silver shorts in play. If silver goes too high, they can lose billions. Obviously, they can't have that happen (only little fish get taken to the cleaners), so more paper was used to slam price lower. This manipulation is nothing new, but the challenge to the CB's wholesale control of price across all financial markets is new. They have lost control. Panic is setting in.

I believe that precious metal is almost certain to reward those who hold it as this battle continues. Not paper contracts, but physical metal itself.
 
Philskins said:
Good morning,

Have enjoyed reading your posts for some time now, appreciate the information. I have a question that seems to have fallen off the radar: With regard to the S fund, what is the prospect of pulling back to the open gap at 1370 in the DWCPF? It occurred Oct 12 last year. Seems like a great reentry point but when do we drop down that low again?! Thanks!!
Click to expand...

Welcome to my thread!

Because this market is so manipulated, and right now it's to the upside (massive money printing, but there are other reasons) I don't know that this gap will be filled in historical fashion. I say this because there is a major war raging for control of the financial structure. There are those that want to plunge the markets by 50% or more, while the other side is trying to keep it afloat (for now) for future purposes (I'm thinking within 24 months or so). There is no telling exactly how this plays out. I have no doubt there is some fluidity involved as the battle moves back and forth. Most don't see this battle, which is why I point to the X22 Report to get a sense of what is really happening.

Now, it's possible the gap gets filled and the market move higher again, but I would not be comfortable holding that scenario. I just don't think it is business as usual anymore. It is now about survival. The money printing that is currently in progress started a few months ago to prop up the big banks as they are already insolvent. It is do or die for the CB and they know it. In my calculated opinion I don't think they survive.

I stopped trading the markets over 2 years once I really began to see what was happening.

I continue to provide commentary here for those who are looking for seasoned perspective, but I've whittled my technical indicators to a shadow of what I once tracked for reasons already stated.
 
Good morning,

Have enjoyed reading your posts for some time now, appreciate the information. I have a question that seems to have fallen off the radar: With regard to the S fund, what is the prospect of pulling back to the open gap at 1370 in the DWCPF? It occurred Oct 12 last year. Seems like a great reentry point but when do we drop down that low again?! Thanks!!
 
Price pulled back on Friday, but the bulls ended the week with decent gains for the both the S&P and the DWCPF.

For Monday, the CBOE is neutral. TRIN and TRINQ are neutral. Cumulative breadth remains bullish. The money printing continues...bullish.

Sentiment shows that NAAIM and TSP Talk are both heavily bulled up.

I remain bullish.
 
The beat continues, or should I say the beat down (for the bears). There aren't as many of them as there used to be. Most surveys I follow are darn bullish.

New highs were hit on the charts today. And I see no technical or sentiment reason for that to change under the dynamics currently in play.

The CBOE has not posted yet. NAAIM came in more bullish. The bears are mostly gone in that survey. This remains one of our primary cues to stay the course in stocks.

Breadth hit another high and remains another solid data point for the bulls.

I remain bullish.
 
uscfanhawaii said:
And yet....how much do things stay the same?!

It is still VERY early in 2020, but I find it interesting that buy-n-holders still command the top of the AutoTracker!
#1: C Fund buy-n-holders
#2: C/S mix buy-n-holders
#3: S Fund buy-n-holders

No prediction here....but buy-n-holders can’t seem to do anything wrong. :blink:
Click to expand...

On occasion, I have indicated in past posts that the game has changed. Control over the markets has shifted. That shift has the potential and even the likelihood to negatively impact traders. Past success with older trading methods and models may result in sub par performance. That is why I have stopped using some of my signals in a contrarian fashion. I could see the expected results of using signals in this manner were no longer working as they once did.

My explanation is general in nature. There will still be some who achieve relative success using older trading models. But overall, I suspect that most will find it more challenging.

The foundation of the markets is also extremely complex. Most of the trading activity is now done by computers using complex algorithms. Warehouses of them. Many are clustered near New York City in New Jersey. The human element in trading has been significantly reduced. I don't understand the full impact of this, but I do think it alters the playing field even more than it once did.

I have also noted for some time now that NAAIM has been largely bullish for quite some time. They are not shifting between a bearish and bullish stance as much as they once did. That is telling.
 
And yet....how much do things stay the same?!

It is still VERY early in 2020, but I find it interesting that buy-n-holders still command the top of the AutoTracker!
#1: C Fund buy-n-holders
#2: C/S mix buy-n-holders
#3: S Fund buy-n-holders

No prediction here....but buy-n-holders can’t seem to do anything wrong. :blink:
 
How quickly things change. The bulls pulled victory out of the jaws of defeat so-to-speak.

S&P 500.png

We can see that the price on the S&P hit a fresh all-time intra-day high today, but closed below its peak when in the final half hour of trading some nervous traders likely trimmed their risk until they could reassess the situation. X22 has very good commentary on what happened the past 24 hours by-the-way.

This evening, the CBOE is leaning bullish. TRIN and TRINQ are leaning bearish. Breadth hit a fresh high in its seemingly relentless drive higher.

I think today's action showed us once more who is in control of this market. Or at least what direction is the most likely path. It is still up!

I am more bullish now than I was before, but would not be surprised with some volatility in the near term until those with jitters fully settle down.
 
coolhand said:
Friday's action saw the market turn back down again as market participants reacted to geopolitical events.

The charts remain bullish nonetheless. It will take significant selling pressure to shift the upside trend, which I don't think is likely. Not when the CB is being forced to monetize debt and keep their banks afloat.

The CBOE is leaning bullish for Monday. TRINQ remains bullish. Cumulative breadth dipped, but remains bullish.

We'll have to see how geopolitical events unfold and the degree of influence it exerts on the markets moving forward. It would not be out of character for the market to turn higher on perceived bad news, so be careful not to assume the market will react to bad news in a logical way. As we begin 2020, expect significant events to line up one after the other as we head toward the November elections. All the stops have been pulled politically and it is do or die for many. I only bring this up because there is risk, but that risk could be to the upside as well as the downside.

I remain bullish.
Click to expand...

I posted the above on Jan 4th. Note what I said about geopolitical events and how the market may turn higher on perceived bad news. Futures plunged last night and are now pointing to a moderately higher open. Perfect example of what I indicated might happen. It's very possible that the market takes off to the upside over the days ahead. Not a prediction, just a hunch.
 
So, futures are relatively flat now. Is a rally on tap? Would it be a surprise if we get one? NAAIM was bullish last week. Grab your popcorn.
 
Futures have retraced the bulk of initial losses. Precious metal has retraced some of its gains. Not surprising in this market. We can never be sure what to expect when events are occurring.
 
Futures are plunging hard. This is why gold and silver are rising. The game may be changing, but it's too soon to be sure.
 
Gold is over $1,600.00 tonight. Silver is on the move too. Anyone who understands the truth of what is happening with the banking system can take advantage of the changes underway in our economy.
 
Today, the market was largely negative, but not a lot. Price on both the S&P and DWCPF remain near their highs, which could easily be challenged with just one more push to the upside.

NYAD.png

The CBOE has not posted, but they've been neutral the past 3 trading days. Cumulative breadth dipped, but it's meaningless as you can see from the chart. The signal remains near its peak, but it is moving sideways, which some might interpret as potentially negative. That's possible, but liquidity is going to make it tough for the bears to get any traction unless something changes.

TRIN and TRINQ are both neutral.

I remain bullish.
 
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