coolhand's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Take your time getting back in - once all the lily padders and F funders move to equities I'll be obligated to get out and right now capital appreciation feels good.

 

[WorkFE]

As it should BT, as it should. Well deserved for your determination and stead fastness

 

[coolhand]

This is playing out exactly the way da boyz want. Look how they rallied it in the last 30 minutes Friday to set off some programmed buying and then followed through with more intense buying Monday morning. This is a day-traders market. Even if I wanted to buy back in last month I couldn't. Today is the first day I've had trades in my back pocket.

I hate when they stick that carrot in front of me. :suspicious:

I'm sticking with the system. No big deal. I can easily see this reversing at some point. I have other accounts where I'm still in the market, so it's not like I'm not getting any benefit here.

 

[WorkFE]

Your name says it all

 

[Birchtree]

We're just playing and having a little fun time - no harm intended. Could we get four white soldiers in a row - maybe even five. Perhaps I'll get the $11 range at the end of the week.

 

[Medic72]

I am not really sure why you would wonder about others accounts so much. They are doing what they feel comfortable with in the current climate. If M72 you subscribe to BT's way of investing unconditionally than you took it in the shorts last year which means you have know choice but to ride the train back up.
Alot of people jumped off that ride above 1200.
On the other hand if all the rhetoric is competitive lip services, more power to ya. It's cool.

wow work, not trying to influence anyone i was just asking a question. but i guess i can just keep my crap on my own thread if it offends anyone. sry

 

[Boghie]

It Might Sound Weird...

CoolHand,

This might sound weird, but...

Day Trading blows when the market is choppy. Your system tells you to buy or sell on instant signals. You do so, then the market jumps the other way and you do so again, then it plops back and you do so again.

The only folks who make money day trading a choppy market are the brokerages (large fees for such trades - ie 15% - 20%) and the TaxMan (you pay pronto for gains, don't get much back very pronto for losses).

Played that game in the 1990s through the early 2000s. Great in a growing bull market. Probably great in a consistent bear market. But, absolutely crappy in a choppy market (2000 and 2001).

We are choppy right now...

Note: I do not mean 'your system' as in SS. I mean whatever the system is that a day trader bought. Your system (the SS) doesn't flip daily - it is more long term. Much more proper for TSP investing.

 

[coolhand]

wow work, not trying to influence anyone i was just asking a question. but i guess i can just keep my crap on my own thread if it offends anyone. sry

Any time we see big moves like this, emotions run high. I see it on every board I monitor. Try not to take anything personal. We all find ourselves on the right and wrong side of the track at one point or another. Hope you're making some coin on this one, it's been a nice ride for those brave enough to stay the course.

 

[coolhand]

Re: It Might Sound Weird...

CoolHand,

This might sound weird, but...

Day Trading blows when the market is choppy. Your system tells you to buy or sell on instant signals. You do so, then the market jumps the other way and you do so again, then it plops back and you do so again.

The only folks who make money day trading a choppy market are the brokerages (large fees for such trades - ie 15% - 20%) and the TaxMan (you pay pronto for gains, don't get much back very pronto for losses).

Played that game in the 1990s through the early 2000s. Great in a growing bull market. Probably great in a consistent bear market. But, absolutely crappy in a choppy market (2000 and 2001).

We are choppy right now...

Note: I do not mean 'your system' as in SS. I mean whatever the system is that a day trader bought. Your system (the SS) doesn't flip daily - it is more long term. Much more proper for TSP investing.

You're right. I was referring to traders who can watch the action minute by minute and when the volume comes in can make a move immediately. In a choppy market like we've had it's tough for both bulls and bears alike.

 

[robo]

This is playing out exactly the way da boyz want. Look how they rallied it in the last 30 minutes Friday to set off some programmed buying and then followed through with more intense buying Monday morning. This is a day-traders market. Even if I wanted to buy back in last month I couldn't. Today is the first day I've had trades in my back pocket.

I hate when they stick that carrot in front of me. :suspicious:

I'm sticking with the system. No big deal. I can easily see this reversing at some point. I have other accounts where I'm still in the market, so it's not like I'm not getting any benefit here.

I agree with coolhand.....Traps could be in play here..... so if you want to chase now at least limit the size of the trade. It's not the time to go 100% long if you have been in the G Fund. Some comments below from the True Contrarian - In my opinion a very good service!

You will have to pay up to get his daily report and his opinion on what happens next.


Take Care!


Always enjoy your thread Coolhand......

Robo


The S&P 500 in today’s trading surged to its highest level since early November 2008. This induced many chartists, hedge-fund managers, and other momentum players to exuberantly scream “upside breakout” and to thereby purchase their favorite junk-food holdings like S&P 500 call options or 3:1 leveraged general equity funds like BGU.

The financial markets almost certainly have other ideas. Consider all of the following classic negative divergences seen in today’s trading:

1) TLT held above last week’s lows at a deeply oversold level;
2) Gold mining shares, which have led general equities both higher and lower since March 2008, reversed early gains to close lower;
3) While VXO and VIX declined in early trading, they were both unable to break below their respective multi-month nadirs of May 20, 2009;
4) Equity and corporate-bond mutual funds are experiencing their largest net inflows from amateur investors since last summer;
5) Closed-end equity fund discounts have been widening in recent weeks (source: Barron’s), although these discounts remain well below their levels of the autumn and winter.

The most important principle to keep in mind is that the financial markets will always act in the manner which will cause the maximum number of participants to lose money.


http://truecontrarian.com/

 

[Bullitt]

I'm sure GM's scheduled bankruptcy, along with C and GM being booted from the Dow Monday, leaked before the close of trading on Friday. Could that have caused the final burst of short covering that drove the indices up in the final half hour of trading on Friday?

At this point, yes, it's too late to get in. Or is it? A year ago I kept telling myself it was too late to sell. In hindsight I wouldn't ride that crash down a second time if I'd hand known how deep it would take us before a bounce.

 

[coolhand]

This says it all today! :laugh:

Carried by Momentum
Last Update: 02-Jun-09 08:51 ET

http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...me=Investor&ArticleId=NS20090602085154PageOne

GM filed for bankruptcy protection Monday and the Dow rose 221 points. Just think of the returns one could see if all Dow components filed for bankruptcy. By our tabulations, that would be good for just over 6600 Dow points, which would leave the black and blue chip average at a new all-time high. Maybe Chapter 11 is the path to new stock market highs after all.

Not!

We're not exactly sure why the market would be in a celebratory mood upon hearing GM file for bankruptcy, even if it wasn't a surprise. And we certainly aren't sure why GM's stock would trade higher in the wake of that filing (please e-mail your thoughts, if you have time).

We understand that the better-than-expected economic data yesterday played a supportive role in the rally, but it was striking that the most influential data point - the real PCE component of the Personal Income and Spending report, which declined 0.1% and accounts for 70% of GDP -- was glossed over in favor of survey data (i.e. the ISM Index) and construction spending, which accounts for only 5% of GDP.

It goes to show, we think, that the market isn't just looking for green shoots, but might also be starting to smoke them, too.

It also goes to show the influence of a momentum trade and that the market can stay overbought for an extended period just as it can stay oversold for an extended period. The fear of missing out on further gains, though, is proving to be an influential catalyst, especially since the major averages have stuck their heads above notable resistance points at their 200-day simple moving averages.

The Dow remains the "technical exception" as it is holding just below its 200-day simple moving average at 8765.63. Similarly, the Dow Jones Transportation Average still hasn't penetrated its 200-day simple moving average (3476.46) yet either.

Technicals aside, the market is still in the mode of looking at economic data in the most optimistic light possible. It is a change in mindset that has fueled the rally off the March lows, along with the recognition that the worst-case scenario for the banking sector (i.e. total nationalization) has been avoided.

We have suggested in the past that it was sensible for the market to rally strongly with this shift in thinking and the market continues to act in accordance with our view that a chasing trade would be a strong underpinning factor for the time being.

Still, the price action of late strikes us as taking a big leap of faith in the idea that trend GDP growth (avg. 3.1% post-WW II) is right around the corner and is going to stick for some time.

With the savings rate and Treasury yields on the rise today, and higher taxes and a lower standard of living on the horizon, there is ample reason to doubt such assumptions.

Although the market continues to run, we think it is prudent for investors to take some profits from those stock that have enjoyed outsized gains.

As of this posting, the S&P futures are signaling an opening decline of about 0.4% for the market ahead of the Pending Home Sales report for April (consensus +0.5%) at 10:00 ET.

 

[coolhand]

I'm seeing more sell signals coming into play. We may have more upside, but I don't think the current breakout will last more than a few more days. Anticipate one more sell signal from the SS too.

 

[hessian]

Hey Cool,
Thinking, after the close yesterday, & now looking as if, as of noon anyway, that a nice BIG topping tail might be in the cards for the close. (But who knows in this manipulated quagmire.)
- Not wishing anyone bad fortune - just a thought!
Be careful out there!! :embarrest:

 

[coolhand]

Hey Cool,
Thinking, after the close yesterday, & now looking as if, as of noon anyway, that a nice BIG topping tail might be in the cards for the close. (But who knows in this manipulated quagmire.)
- Not wishing anyone bad fortune - just a thought!
Be careful out there!! :embarrest:

You know, I'm seeing a lot of high fiving, back slapping, and bear taunting on other boards. That's another sign we're getting close to a top. There's really nothing overly bullish about this market from a fundamental perspective. It's really emotion driven right now. Yeah, it would have been nice to participate a little more in it, but you have to play your cards the way you see things shaping up on a longer term basis.

I'm saving my two bucks for better prices down the road...oh yeah, when I get that next SS buy signal.

 

[coolhand]

Great TA on the dollar here.

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/dollar_index_200906/?campaignid=3

 

[BULLonPARADE]

Thanks Cool. I've increased my TSP earnings substantially the last few months playing the I fund predominately. I appreciate the discussion turning from the S&P to the profitable, and in my opinion more predictable currency market.

 

[coolhand]

Thanks Cool. I've increased my TSP earnings substantially the last few months playing the I fund predominately. I appreciate the discussion turning from the S&P to the profitable, and in my opinion more predictable currency market.

More importantly, if the dollar continues to slide in the months ahead we can expect oil to continue its ascent as well. Inflation will become more of a concern and interest rates will probably rise. Does that sound good for the economy?

No prediction here, but the set-up is certainly there.

 

[coolhand]

I agree with coolhand.....Traps could be in play here..... so if you want to chase now at least limit the size of the trade. It's not the time to go 100% long if you have been in the G Fund. Some comments below from the True Contrarian - In my opinion a very good service!

You will have to pay up to get his daily report and his opinion on what happens next.

You know, Mark Young got a sell signal yesterday, which is the best fade signal he has. I think he's just beginning to lean IT bearish...and you know what a bull he is. Still, the market has yet to do any serious selling, but we're at the top of the current channel again so resistance is at hand.

Yesterday's action saw more volume on the downside than the upside. Maybe da boyz are selling into the last gasps of this current rally as retail investors and underperforming portofoilo managers are doing some panic buying?

Don't know, but we do know how the market likes to get folks leaning any given direction, and right now I'm starting to see some really confident bulls. I'm letting the SS tell me what to do and it's spoken twice in the last three weeks. Another sell signal may be close at hand and that may be the final nail.

We'll see.

 

[coolhand]

There are some serious market forces at play right now, which makes determining market direction very difficult. Using TA, one could make an reasonable argument for a bull or bear case, which isn't to say that's unusual, but I can't get excited about either case.

Yes, I've had a bearish bias for a while now, but I certainly haven't been calling for a drop off a cliff. I'm simply anticipating a change of trend.

There are some serious market forces at work right now, which is casing me pause in any event. The dollar appears poised to reverse its trend, and since equities have rallied as the dollar has fallen, it is logical to anticipate a change in direction for the market should a dollar rally in fact continue.

Another issue is bonds. Specifically the 10 year note or long bonds in general. The Fed is trying to keep interest rates low, but risk is piling up, and bond yields are proving that case. I also note that along with the bond market the G fund yield appears to be picking up too.

I don't know what's going to happen next, as these forces take time to develop, but the magnitute of the correction was too great to expect the market to turn around in short order, and the market certainly appears to have gotten ahead of itself. Eventually, profit taking is going to present itself as risk begins to take its toll.