coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

Once again, the market showed its resilience today. This time, coming from negative territory to finish the day above the neutral line. Gives you the impression someone wants this market to stay afloat, doesn't it? We'll, that's probably why NAAIM remains bullish overall (and myself).

The charts haven't changed much. They tracking a bit sideways at the moment.

The CBOE is leaning a bit bearish this evening. TRIN and TRINQ are neutral. Breadth remains positive, but it's not advancing. Like the averages, it's dancing sideways in positive territory.

I think the biggest data point is the fact that NAAIM remains bullish, though as I posted earlier today there some bears among them. Just not enough to swing the overall reading. Still, I think we can expect continued back and forth action in the short term. But if the right piece of news comes out, this market may move quickly. I'm anticipating it will be to the upside once the bulls regain their footing.

I remain neutral in the short term, but bullish beyond that.

 

[coolhand]

NAAIM saw an increase in bearish positions, but not nearly enough to change their overall sentiment, which remains bullish longer term. However, the reading does validate the selling pressure we are seeing. As I've been saying, and now NAAIM confirms it, we may get some selling in the short term, but there are still plenty of longs among these money managers.

 

[kb9nvh]

Thankyou

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6003 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

 

[coolhand]

Interesting trading day today. The market continued with its upside push from Tuesday, which was consistent with what I said yesterday. I said I thought the market could go either way, but that we may see some selling after an initial push. Well, that's what we got. What was interesting to me was that the bulls held the neutral line for the most part. That suggests a bottom "may" be in. We'll have to see over the next few trading days.

This evening, the CBOE, TRIN and TRINQ are neutral. Breadth remains positive.

We get a fresh NAAIM reading tomorrow. That will help shape what we might expect over the next few trading days. I am back to a neutral stance in the short term, but bullish beyond that.

 

[coolhand]

We got the bounce. And it stuck. For now.




And while it was a nice bounce, we can see that's all it was. Price retraced less than half of its total losses off the top, so there's more work to do to get back to the previous high. That 50 dma did not get tested and it is entirely possible it still gets tested, so it's too soon (in the short term) to get too bullish just yet.

This evening, the CBOE has not posted, so I don't know how they are positioned.

TRIN and TRINQ both flipped bullish. Cumulative breadth moved higher and remains bullish.

Futures are flat as I type this.

I can see this go either way in the short term. I do have some bullish indicators, but that may only get us some measure of an intra-day rally followed by more downside. Maybe. I'm just not sure. But I still feel that the longer term is still bullish. I'm looking forward to that next NAAIM reading. Then, we'll see if the smart money has shifted any.

 

[coolhand]

The market accelerated its selling on Monday, making it 2 trading days in a row to the downside.




The charts show us that price is still above their respective 50 dma's. Will it hold? Momentum has turned down. We are due some degree of a pullback (overdue). Is this it?



Cumulative breadth is technically still positive, but its close to crossing the 21 ema. By itself, that is not cause to be overly concerned (if it crosses) as it's happened many times in the past and the market eventually recovered to resume its upward bias. Still, we want to keep an eye on it.

This evening, the CBOE, TRIN and TRINQ are all bearish again. Futures are moderately higher as I type this.

We may bounce tomorrow, but I suspect a bottom is not in yet. I still don't think this weakness lasts, but we could see a 5% decline before it's over (give or take). All it would take to turn the market back up is another headline that the market takes as a positive. It can happen fast, just the decline on Friday into Monday.

I am bearish in the short term, but still bullish longer term. Hopefully, the bottom comes this week.

 

[JamesE]

Thank you sir!

 

[coolhand]

The bulls had an off week last week, largely due to Friday's sell-off. The pundits are blaming the coronavirus epidemic that is mostly affecting China at this point (it would appear it is not contained). It is possible. I read a report that the virus is beginning to hit China's manufacturing sector now, which would not help the global economic situation. And then there's the Senate trial that's in progress. This is another potential narrative that may be leveraged for optics in the market. There are other more subtle situations in progress, which are not getting any attention outside the alternative media, but I am not going to address those. Suffice it to say there is kindling for more selling pressure available. The indicators suggest as much too.



Cumulative breadth, which is still positive, fell sharply on Friday. By itself, it is not a problem for the moment, but it could be an early warning of more selling to come.

The CBOE is decidedly bearish for Monday as is TRIN and TRINQ.

These are the indicators that are signaling potential short term trouble.

Sentiment is another matter. Remember that NAAIM was highly bullish just last Thursday (the day before the sell-off). I do not take this sentiment indicator lightly. They can on occasion be wrong, but it is normally just in the very short term. We won't get another reading until next Thursday, but for now I have to believe that any further selling will not last long, though it may be deeper than might make us comfortable. TSP Talk backed off on their collective bullishness, but they are still bullish by more than 2:1.

So, there is a lot going on to drive emotion as we head into a new trading week. Can the powers that be control that emotion so it doesn't drive the markets lower? Very possibly.

I am now neutral in the short term until we see whether Friday's selling was just a knee-jerk reaction, or the start of something more sustained. And if more selling manifests, whether it can be controlled and turned back. It is too soon to get bearish.

 

[coolhand]

The market remained resilient today as price initially fell, but recovered as the trading day wore on. This is a sign of strength.



This chart is also a sign of strength. Cumulative breadth remains solidly bullish.

TRIN and TRINQ are neutral this evening (I see that as bullish in this market).

NAAIM came in solidly bullish once again.

I remain...bullish!

 

[coolhand]

The market gave us more of the same today. Choppy up/down action that went nowhere today. I see it as a bullish sign that consolidation is in progress, which is highly likely to resolve to the upside (yes, that's the trend too).

The CBOE is neutral now. TRIN and TRINQ are also neutral. Cumulative breadth ticked up a tad and remains very bullish. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The market looks to be consolidating gains again as price moves up and down over the course of the trading day.

The charts remain solidly bullish. This evening, the CBOE is bearish. TRIN and TRINQ are dead neutral. Cumulative breadth dipped, but remains firmly bullish.

We may see more weakness in the short term, though it isn't likely to be serious. I suspect the market will complete its consolidation and resume its upward bias within days.

 

[coolhand]

The C and S funds posted a big weekly gains last week.

The charts of the S&P and DWCPF remain solidly bullish with no overhead resistance.

For Monday, the CBOE is bullish. TRINQ is bullish, while TRIN is neutral. Cumulative breadth remains on an upward tack and remains highly bullish.

Sentiment for NAAIM and TSP Talk are both bullish.

Nothing has changed. The indicators remain bullish and therefore I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Boom! The market made a pretty decent move to the upside today. There is no resistance to oppose it. Money is flowing.



Look at cumulative breadth. It was already pretty bullish, but the signal is lifting off well above the 21 and 39 EMA's. Bigger gains ahead?

Ask NAAIM. They remain solidly bullish with few bears among them. Follow the smart money. :smile:

The CBOE is also bullish. TRIN and TRINQ are neutral.

How can I be anything but bullish? It seems a slam dunk.

 

[coolhand]

The melt up continued today as both the S&P and the DWCPF closed with modest to moderate gains.

TRIN and TRINQ remain neutral. I just don't get many actionable signals from these 2 signals like I once did.

Cumulative breadth moved higher and remains bullish.

NAAIM reports tomorrow.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

I love reading your words, "I remain bullish." especially after I just entered the market!!!!! It is uplifting.... especially when queasy about an entry. I sincerely appreciate your analysis and when its positive I realllly love it! Thank you Coolhand! :smile:

YW. :smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I love reading your words, "I remain bullish." especially after I just entered the market!!!!! It is uplifting.... especially when queasy about an entry. I sincerely appreciate your analysis and when its positive I realllly love it! Thank you Coolhand! :smile:

 

[coolhand]

It was a mixed day in terms of closing price. The S&P pulled back modestly, while the DWCPF rose moderately. It doesn't mean anything beyond that.

The CBOE is leaning bullish this evening. TRIN and TRINQ are neutral once more. In fact, they have been largely neutral for weeks. Not much volatility during that time.

Breadth rose and remains very bullish.

I remain bullish.

 

[tsptalk]

Thanks again CH!
Great game tonight. GO TIGERS! :smile:

Yes, the Tigers were the best team tonight.

 

[wahinepio]

Welcome to my thread!

Because this market is so manipulated, and right now it's to the upside (massive money printing, but there are other reasons) I don't know that this gap will be filled in historical fashion. I say this because there is a major war raging for control of the financial structure. There are those that want to plunge the markets by 50% or more, while the other side is trying to keep it afloat (for now) for future purposes (I'm thinking within 24 months or so). There is no telling exactly how this plays out. I have no doubt there is some fluidity involved as the battle moves back and forth. Most don't see this battle, which is why I point to the X22 Report to get a sense of what is really happening.

Now, it's possible the gap gets filled and the market move higher again, but I would not be comfortable holding that scenario. I just don't think it is business as usual anymore. It is now about survival. The money printing that is currently in progress started a few months ago to prop up the big banks as they are already insolvent. It is do or die for the CB and they know it. In my calculated opinion I don't think they survive.

I stopped trading the markets over 2 years once I really began to see what was happening.

I continue to provide commentary here for those who are looking for seasoned perspective, but I've whittled my technical indicators to a shadow of what I once tracked for reasons already stated.

thanks for the continued commentary, unique recommendations, and a few good laughs as i grab my popcorn on your drivebys.

 

[pmaloney]

Thanks again CH!
Great game tonight. GO TIGERS! :smile: