coolhand's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
I'm just saying we have a mechanical system here giving a buy signal, yet market internals are crumbling.... so we should disregard the integrity of the signal?
 
Bullitt said:
I'm just saying we have a mechanical system here giving a buy signal, yet market internals are crumbling.... so we should disregard the integrity of the signal?
Click to expand...

Yes. We have to understand the dynamics of what makes the SS effective. Remember when it gave a sell a few weeks back and then reversed three days later? Well, the internals were still valid. What's happening is we have some significant whipsaws that are causing short term positive or negative conditions, but are not changing the Intermediate Term one.

The SS is not designed to be a short term signal, so when whipsaws change the short term dynamics we need to look at the Intermediate Term dynamics to ascertain the signals validity. At the moment, current market internals are not consistent with a true buy signal from the SS.
 
My one fear is that with all the "gaming" of the economic system by those in power, we will probably continue to be perplexed by market action. I see savvy traders on both sides of the market right now. There's still no clear path of direction.
 
I think that, at the end of the day, it's the trader's instincts that keep him/her alive- not technical indicators. What do they say? TA is a windsock not a crystal ball?

Just because it's a strike doesn't mean it's always worth swinging at.
 
Bullitt said:
I think that, at the end of the day, it's the trader's instincts that keep him/her alive- not technical indicators.
Click to expand...

I'd have to disagree with you here. Without TA there is nothing to base instincts on. Unless I'm taking your comment out of context.
 
Got a PM from Don regarding the SS, so I'm posting it here for the benefit of those following the system:

Hi Jim. Love the avatar! As you know, I believe the the Matrix is the greatest metaphor ever for the market-as EACH operate on two levels....what people believe to be true, and then what actually IS true, which is quite a different thing entirely. But that's another story.

Hopefully my posting today helps to explain what you are asking. The primary precondition for a buy signal is a set of positive divergences over several weeks or months, where the market has been declining and indicators such as NYMO and NAMO have been making a series of higher lows as the market makes lower lows. Same with NYAD and NAAD and with BPCOMPQ. That has not been happening here, so as I see it, the most basic precondition for an SSBS is missing - thus no signal.

Aloha, Don
 
Pschiffdicpal said:
The Federal Gov/fed reserve has Manupulated the money supply, Stock Market, Gold, credit, banks, car companys, congress, the courts and Us the people....BUT how do you Manupulate the Bond Market??? when by Making Trillions and Trillions of unsecure DEBT your Crashing It!!!!!

Thoughs on this anyone????
Click to expand...

This is why I follow Mish's blog. I have more respect for his economic analysis than anyone else. It's generally long term outlooks, but he's usually on the money as time goes by.
 
Now that the news media is painting a positive economic outlook and the markets are advancing in a "don't want to be left behind" fashion, the risk has become much more elevated.

Sorry, I just can't buy into this market right now. If da boyz decide to turn things around, it can happen far faster than one can get out. Something just doesn't feel right here.

The Recovery Trade Sticks
Last Update: 01-Jun-09 08:53 ET

http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...me=Investor&ArticleId=NS20090601085432PageOne

General Motors (GM) filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and nothing spells rally like a bankruptcy filing from an iconic manufacturer. Lo and behold, though, the futures market is signaling a sharply higher start for the market.

The bullish bias is being attributed to carryover momentum from Friday's closing spike, an encouraging manufacturing report out of China, and the thinking that concessions made by GM bondholders over the weekend will allow a new, more competitive GM to emerge from bankruptcy sooner rather than later.

So, the recovery trade has stuck and it appears to be forcing sidelined cash back into the market on the fear of missing out on further gains.

The feeling of needing to chase the rally is becoming palpable, which is oftentimes a turning point, just as the feeling was in early March that one needed to get out of the market.

Separately, the headlines for the Personal Income and Spending report for April were better than expected, with income up 0.5% (consensus -0.2%) and spending down 0.1% (consensus -0.2%). The prior month was revised to show a -0.2% decline in income (from -0.3%) and a-0.3% decline in spending (from -0.2%).

Disposable personal income rose 1.1% thanks to a boost from the provisions of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act that reduced personal current taxes and increased government social benefit payments. Excluding those factors, disposable income increased 0.7%.

For the April period, private wage and salary disbursements decreased $1.3 billion, but total wage and salary disbursements were basically flat at $6.46 billion. Proprietors' income increased $4.5 billion, or 0.4%, rental income increased $2.7 billion, or 3.1%, while personal current transfer receipts increased $45.7 billion, or 2.3%.

Tellingly, real personal consumption expenditures declined -0.1%, which goes to show consumers are still playing it close to the vest when it comes to spending because of the lack of a pickup in wages in the face of a weak labor market. Their conservative approach was evident in the personal savings rate, which rose to 5.7% versus 4.5% in March.

This report fits the bill from a headline perspective, but it isn't a strong report economically speaking. The ISM Index is up next at 10:00 ET. A reading of 42.0 is expected.

We continue to have our concerns that the market is getting carried away with the recovery trade, and the waning volume totals in the latter part of May makes us think the market is vulnerable to a near-term setback. Still, it is our contention that pullbacks will continue to be relatively short and shallow.

We pegged the S&P's summer trading range to be between 825-1000 and we're just about in the middle of that range entering June.

We don't envision a breakout of that range (at least not yet), but we do expect an upside bias to be the prevailing course as the market draws support from the idea that the full brunt of the fiscal stimulus has yet to hit, the understanding that the tone of the media has taken a dramatic turn for the better, and knowing that the market continues to hold up in the face of bad news when it arrives.

As of this posting, the S&P is indicated to open 1.5% higher.
 
Timing...

CoolHand,

Maybe the big boys are trying to make some points before the Big O whomps the economy with a well intended tax liability :p

The market dumped as soon as we all saw that the choice of leadership was the 'Big M' or the 'Big O' - neither of which showed any promise regarding stewardship of a credit unworthy business and gubmint atmosphere. Both of those clowns guaranteed an anti-business climate. One, perhaps, more aggressive than the other – but, we will never know.

Right now there is no chance of a tax code change for 2010. They would have to be working on it right now.

Get your money while the bank still has some – even if the ink isn’t even dry yet:p
 
It'll be interesting to see if Coolhand can hold to the discipline of the SS system. No one knows how long this buying stampede will last but I think it will spin a few heads and create neck strain as we escalate to the upside - darn this could be parabolic. When will the panic set in. A Dow of 8780 is the 200 day.
 
ive been wondering how long the doubt would last myself, i look at the tracker numbers and see all the gains of the people IN, then look at everyone in the G fun, just how long can you watch other people making money and your stuff goin up by .01 ?


4 or 5 positive days and one bad one, you will prob make more than you loose, or just get .01 hrm...
 
I am kicking my self for taking a breather at 887(S&P) been out 4 days and missed 4%....now i have to buy back in higher than i wanted.....so much for breathers..
 
I am not really sure why you would wonder about others accounts so much. They are doing what they feel comfortable with in the current climate. If M72 you subscribe to BT's way of investing unconditionally than you took it in the shorts last year which means you have know choice but to ride the train back up.
Alot of people jumped off that ride above 1200.
On the other hand if all the rhetoric is competitive lip services, more power to ya. It's cool.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

tsptalk
  • Article Article
Are stocks ready to pause / pullback?
Replies
0
Views
139
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
Stocks were mixed but worse than it looked
Replies
0
Views
125
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
The top 10 stocks are doing all the work
Replies
1
Views
109
nasa1974
nasa1974
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Late Friday rally hinting at reversal
Replies
0
Views
308
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
Follow through for stocks as oil plummets
Replies
1
Views
166
TommyIV
TommyIV
Back
Top