coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

We are getting the choppy trading that the NAAIM reading suggested, but it's with an upside bias. I'm sure you bulls will take it. :smile:




There is nothing wrong with these charts.

This evening, the CBOE is bullish. TRINQ is leaning bearish and TRIN is neutral. Breadth is rising and remains bullish.

The indicators tell me to remain bullish.

 

[wahinepio]

Always!!

 

[nasa1974]

Cool,

Your posts are a must read everymorning. Thanks for taking the time.

 

[coolhand]

Always appreciate your updates Cool!
I'm 75C 25S for now but watching closely


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Hi ToddB. I appreciate the time you take to let me know you like my updates. :smile:

 

[ToddB]

Always appreciate your updates Cool!
I'm 75C 25S for now but watching closely


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[coolhand]

The bulls got the upper hand to start out the new trading week.

This evening, the CBOE is bullish. TRIN is leaning a bit bearish, while TRINQ is leaning bullish. Breadth moved higher.

I remain bullish, but still think we are in for some back and forth action in the short term.

 

[coolhand]

The market pulled back a bit on Friday. The selling comes after significant upside pressure earlier in the week. Both the SPX and DWCPF posted large gains, so a small pullback it perfectly normal (especially at resistance).

Pretty much all of my indicators have gone neutral. I continue to expect choppy up/down action into the new week based on NAAIM's latest reading.

 

[coolhand]

We got a choppy trading day today with the S&P 500 closing for a gain, while the DWCPF closed with a small loss.




This evening, the CBOE is bullish again. TRIN is neutral and TRINQ is bullish. Breadth remains bullish.

NAAIM gave us an interesting reading today. The bulls got a bit less bullish, while the bears among them remained short. This is a neutral reading, so my take is that the market is not yet ready for a run to the upside (maybe a melt up at this point). I suspect we may see more back and forth action for a few days. The other indicators suggest some upside for Friday.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Another launch catalyst?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/06/china-to-halve-tariffs-on-hundreds-of-us-goods.html

 

[coolhand]

Have you forgotten about the selling yet? The market apparently has.




The S&P and DWCPF are now both attempting another upside breakout.



Breadth is rising quickly once again. Remember, I said that when the signal breaks the 21 day EMA, it usually bottoms not all that long after. In this case, it happened very quick indeed.

The CBOE is bullish once again. TRIN is neutral and TRINQ is leaning bearish.

I am wondering if the train is leaving the station again. The news headlines suggest as much. I remain bullish.

 

[kb9nvh]

2016 the panic drop happened and I sold and lost like 18k..taking me backward to about the same as if I had just stayed in the g fund .of course I never bought back in making the loss permanent and have been in g since a few months back.. The horror of 2016 was again upon me.. So I did opposite of my panic instinct.. Lol. Thanks to you and the rest of the group I didn't make the same mistake this time...

This is one of the reasons I follow NAAIM sentiment. That is my anchor. It is smart money. They are not emotional traders and therefore I can leverage their overall sentiment to frame my market expectations. The vast majority of the time it works very well. And it worked this time too. Some of those money managers got bearish recently, but most stayed bullish. These managers do not all trade the same and have different timelines (short, medium, longer term). To me, that makes it a valuable resource to get an idea of what to expect from week to week.

Glad you held on.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6003 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

 

[coolhand]

How close I came to panic selling last Friday... But then I remembered... The very worst day to sell is panic selling day.. Or to buy back in on panic buying day.. Lol... I guess I'm not cut out for this..i rode it out and am glad i did.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6003 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

This is one of the reasons I follow NAAIM sentiment. That is my anchor. It is smart money. They are not emotional traders and therefore I can leverage their overall sentiment to frame my market expectations. The vast majority of the time it works very well. And it worked this time too. Some of those money managers got bearish recently, but most stayed bullish. These managers do not all trade the same and have different timelines (short, medium, longer term). To me, that makes it a valuable resource to get an idea of what to expect from week to week.

Glad you held on. :smile:

 

[kb9nvh]

How close I came to panic selling last Friday... But then I remembered... The very worst day to sell is panic selling day.. Or to buy back in on panic buying day.. Lol... I guess I'm not cut out for this..i rode it out and am glad i did.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6003 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

 

[coolhand]

That was some kind of upside follow through we had today, wasn't it? How many really saw it coming? Not that it was necessarily a surprise. In this market, upside surprises should be expected from time to time.




Price is really not all that far from its highs after today. Look at the DWCPF. It's already poking around resistance.

I note that the CBOE is bullish again this evening. TRIN and TRINQ are leaning bullish. Breadth flipped bullish again.

We might see some weakness tomorrow after such a big move higher, but I suspect it won't last. I feel more confident at this point that the market may be ready to resume its upside march. We'll know soon enough.

I am shifting from neutral back to bullish.

 

[coolhand]

After Friday's shot lower, Monday saw the market bounce. The bounce pushed price on the DWCPF back over its 50 dma. The S&P never fell under its 50 dma, but it too improved.

This evening, the CBOE is bearish. TRIN and TRINQ are neutral. Breadth moved higher and is now neutral.

I thought Monday would see downside follow through (based on the indicators), but that didn't happen (unless you included the intraday selling). But the market thought otherwise and closed for decent gains, though did not retrace all of Friday's losses.

The back and forth action remains with us (NAAIM reflected this). I remain neutral.

 

[coolhand]

Up until Friday, the S&P and DWCPF were holding their own. They were not down much. But Friday, the sellers came out in force and drove price lower. There was little opposition to the downside. Volume was elevated.




Price on the S&P tested the 50 dma, but did not break it. Price on the DWCPF did break, but only marginally.



Breadth broke through and closed below the 21 day EMA. It the relatively recent past, that has been a good area to expect a reversal, though not necessarily a quick one.

But we have a lot going on in terms of geopolitical and other types of events. Brexit is now official, but I seriously doubt the opposition will just go away. Perhaps the most serious challenge to the market is the coronavirus situation, which is getting a lot of attention. This has the potential to do more damage to the global economy. I stress "potential", because it may not be a serious as some would have us believe. It could begin to abate before we know it. That has happened with similar scares in the past.

But my point is that it may be challenging to pick a bottom right now. Bottom picking is challenging all by itself, but we have headwinds that are not typical at the moment.

And having said all that, it is also possible that the market turns around quickly on a given piece of news.

For Monday, the CBOE is leaning decidedly bearish. TRINQ is also leaning bearish. TRIN is neutral.

We saw NAAIM come in on Thursday's reading with an increase in bearish exposure, but there were still a lot of bulls in the survey. Unfortunately, the selling came the day after we got that reading, so some of those bulls may feel differently right now, but that is just speculation.

My current perspective in all of this is that I think more selling is on tap. I point to the CBOE and the increase in bears in NAAIM along with the TRINQ reading. That means price on the S&P is likely going to breadth the 50 dma.

I have said that my longer term perspective remains bullish and still does. I do not have reason to change my sentiment longer term. What I don't know, is where the bottom may occur. The 200 dma is still a long way away. I sure hope that isn't the target.

 

[coolhand]

Thanks much. I just noticed that I did have it bookmarked. My brain has been getting a little soft since retiring a couple years ago :smile:

I just retired in December. Are you saying this is what I can now look forward to?

 

[hotwings]

Thanks much. I just noticed that I did have it bookmarked. My brain has been getting a little soft since retiring a couple years ago :smile:

 

[Mcqlives]

Naaim.org

 

[hotwings]

CH,
Where do you find the NAAIM reading? Is it free or does it require a subscription? Thanks always for your market analysis.