coolhand's Account Talk

[Whipsaw]

Best wishes for your Dad's speedy recovery, CH!

 

[TSP-roulette]

Hello CH, hope your dad's health condition\issues improve quickly. There's nothing in the world like a mother's love, but here is a little reminder of the love we have for our dads. Best wishes.

 

[jonfresno]

Thanks Tom. It's my Father. We expect him to get through his issues, but his age makes things at least somewhat uncertain.

I had my own hot-spot for several years, but I turned it off a few months ago because I don't generally travel anymore.

Hope your dad gets better CH.

 

[nnuut]

CH may your father heal quickly and well!

 

[rangerray]

Momentum works both ways.

 

[coolhand]

Thank-you everyone for your prayers. It cannot be overstated how powerful they truly are.

NAAIM saw an increase in bearish positions, and it was enough of a shift to expect more weakness. However, the bears among them are not in the majority. The bulls continue to outnumber the bears by quite a bit. This reading supports my expectation that the market should eventually recover from this selling pressure. But it could still take a few weeks. We'll have to see how it goes and continue to take the pulse of the market daily.

 

[Valkyrie]

[h=1]Jeremiah 17:14[/h]Heal me, O Lord, and I will be healed;
Save me and I will be saved,
For You are my praise.

 

[genod]

coolhand,

God hears and answers all our prayers, and I am praying for you.

 

[nasa1974]

CH,

Your posts are always a must read but family first. Prayers for you and your family.

 

[Scout333]

Cool hope things go well with your father! Will add him to our prayer list!
Scout

 

[wahinepio]

Isaiah 46:4 And I will still be carrying you when you are old. Your hair will turn gray, and I will still carry you. I made you, and I will carry you to safety.

May the good Lord be with your father and bestow strength upon his son.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi CH, Sorry to hear about your dad having issues. Will say a prayer for him for a speedy recovery. Best wishes to you and your family.

 

[coolhand]

Hey cool. Sorry to hear about the family emergency. I hope it's nothing serious, but emergency says it all.



I use my own internet connection when on the road, and for some reason hotel rooms get the worst reception. I can't stand working under those conditions. I had to go down to the hotel lobby at 6:30 AM to get work done yesterday. :aargh4:

Thanks Tom. It's my Father. We expect him to get through his issues, but his age makes things at least somewhat uncertain.

I had my own hot-spot for several years, but I turned it off a few months ago because I don't generally travel anymore.

 

[albacore5]

Thank you for the update! Always appreciate reading your analysis

 

[tsptalk]

I've been away from my computer the past couple of days due to a family emergency, which has not been resolved, so I may be called away again should circumstances change.

Hey cool. Sorry to hear about the family emergency. I hope it's nothing serious, but emergency says it all.

I thought I could use my laptop at the hotel I was at, which I normally don't have an issue with, but the wi-fi was very weak and I could not load pages.

I use my own internet connection when on the road, and for some reason hotel rooms get the worst reception. I can't stand working under those conditions. I had to go down to the hotel lobby at 6:30 AM to get work done yesterday. :aargh4:

 

[coolhand]

I've been away from my computer the past couple of days due to a family emergency, which has not been resolved, so I may be called away again should circumstances change. I thought I could use my laptop at the hotel I was at, which I normally don't have an issue with, but the wi-fi was very weak and I could not load pages.

If I could have posted the past 2 days, I would have told you to expect more downside. In fact, the market may continue to be volatile for another month or so. I can't predict that, but that's the sense I get from sources I follow.




Obviously, the charts have gotten ugly pretty quick. It appears the NAAIM smart money got caught in it too.

This evening, the CBOE has not posted. They have been bearish all week so far.

TRIN is bearish for tomorrow, while TRINQ is neutral.



Breadth is as ugly as I've seen it in a long time.

I am shifting to a bearish stance for now (we'll take it a week at a time), but I remain bullish longer term (over a month). I am pretty certain the market recovers at some point, but it may not be a fun ride (up and down) if you remain long. I really doubt the powers that be will let things collapse, but someone wants weakness right now.

NAAIM reports tomorrow.

 

[coolhand]

Today's sell-off feels like a switch may have been pulled. There are certainly reasons for the market to nose dive, but NAAIM did not forecast that last week. Not only were they pretty bulled up, but there wasn't any real shorting among them (of significance). It is too soon to say how this plays out, but I would not get too comfortable with the bullish case. I think we should always be ready in case "it's different this time". The Virus is wreaking havoc in many ways. It may be the catalyst that drives the market lower (when they are ready). And it's possible they are ready. I'm not bearish yet, but I'm not complacent either.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

HI Coolhand! Yes, that definitely answers my question. Thanks so much!! :smile:

I don't think it matters all that much regarding institutional investors. Not when the CB is printing on scale never before seen (liquidity). That significantly skews a lot of market data. Also, my trading perspective has evolved over the years I became more aware of how the game is really played. There are also online news sources that help give a much more accurate picture of what we might expect. It has become a matter of synthesizing this data to get a sense of reality. Breadth is a key indicator that helps us see how many boats are being lifted. NAAIM is another key indicator given they are smart money.

How this answers the mail. :smile:

 

[pmaloney]

Thank you Sir! :smile:

 

[coolhand]

Last week, the market pulled back. The market has been fighting early weakness at the open of late, but so far the technical damage is nil.




The S&P fell almost 1.25% on the week, while the DWCPF only lost about 0.3%. The charts still look quite healthy.



Breadth dipped, but it remains bullish.

The CBOE closed bearish on Friday. That means selling pressure may bleed into Monday. TRIN and TRINQ were flat (neutral). NAAIM remains very bullish, so this weakness is not likely to last or do any serious technical damage.

Monday looks bearish, but I am looking for a turn back up at any time. I remain bullish.