Thx, and FYI, I see it precisely the opposite. Namely, the aaii is an undeniable contrarian indicator, the dumbest $ out there. After all, it surveys people like me. I will be waiting for another reading b4 considering a move, however.
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coolhand's Account Talk
- Thread starter coolhand
- Start date
coolhand
Well-known member
NAAIM is smart money. It is not a contrarian sentiment indicator. They are bearish.
coolhand
Well-known member
The volatility continued today, as the market reversed once more and erased much of Wednesday's gains.
It seems we are tracking sideways in volatile fashion at the moment. Both charts show price under the 200 dma. The DWCPF is the weaker of the 2 charts, but not by a lot.
TRIN and TRINQ are leaning bullish this evening, so it seems we might see another reversal on Friday.
The CBOE has been bearish for about 2 weeks now. I suspect that won't change in the short term.
Breadth fell and remains bearish.
As I posted earlier today, NAAIM came in much more bearish. As bearish as I've seen them in a long time. I suggest earlier this week that this might be the case when we get the actual reading.
I remain bearish. I still think the market finds lower prices sooner or later. I know I said that I didn't think "they" would let things fall apart, but I got some intel today that says the game may have changed. I have no inside info on that, so don't take it for fact, but what I heard seemed very plausible to me that this might be the case. I have no timeline on it, but I suspect it may be weeks yet before this all plays out. The volatility may be buying certain players time (up/down) while chess pieces are moved around. Then the bottom may fall out. Again, I can't be sure of this, but I'd like you to know what I'm hearing and thinking.
The fact that NAAIM is now bearish should be respected to the extent you are comfortable (along with any other info you use to make decisions).
It seems we are tracking sideways in volatile fashion at the moment. Both charts show price under the 200 dma. The DWCPF is the weaker of the 2 charts, but not by a lot.
TRIN and TRINQ are leaning bullish this evening, so it seems we might see another reversal on Friday.
The CBOE has been bearish for about 2 weeks now. I suspect that won't change in the short term.
Breadth fell and remains bearish.
As I posted earlier today, NAAIM came in much more bearish. As bearish as I've seen them in a long time. I suggest earlier this week that this might be the case when we get the actual reading.
I remain bearish. I still think the market finds lower prices sooner or later. I know I said that I didn't think "they" would let things fall apart, but I got some intel today that says the game may have changed. I have no inside info on that, so don't take it for fact, but what I heard seemed very plausible to me that this might be the case. I have no timeline on it, but I suspect it may be weeks yet before this all plays out. The volatility may be buying certain players time (up/down) while chess pieces are moved around. Then the bottom may fall out. Again, I can't be sure of this, but I'd like you to know what I'm hearing and thinking.
The fact that NAAIM is now bearish should be respected to the extent you are comfortable (along with any other info you use to make decisions).
coolhand
Well-known member
The market gave us another daily reversal, which is whipsawing traders on both sides of the trade given the size of the moves.
Price is back above the 200 dma on the S&P, but not the DWCPF. There is still resistance overhead.
This evening, TRIN and TRINQ are now neutral.
Breadth has turned up again and is making some upside progress, but still remains bearish.
I still have no solid reason to shift from a bearish stance. NAAIM reports tomorrow.
Price is back above the 200 dma on the S&P, but not the DWCPF. There is still resistance overhead.
This evening, TRIN and TRINQ are now neutral.
Breadth has turned up again and is making some upside progress, but still remains bearish.
I still have no solid reason to shift from a bearish stance. NAAIM reports tomorrow.
coolhand
Well-known member
The market tried to tack on more gains in early trading today, but it wasn't long before the bears swamped the boat.
Perhaps the most notable thing about these charts is that the attempt to retake the 200 dma has failed twice. I do believe the lows will be tested. In fact, I think the market is likely to go even lower.
This evening, the CBOE has not reported. I don't know why this indicator is released later now. It used to be posted around 6 p.m. EST.
Breadth, which was already bearish, turned back down. TRIN and TRINQ are bearish for Wednesday.
The indicators suggest more selling for Wednesday. I am flipping from neutral back to bearish now that the market appears to be tipping its hand. While NAAIM did have a significant bullish aspect last week, some of these money managers are likely willing to take deep draw downs if they believe the selling pressure will not last and that the market will recover. We may also see a more bearish reading on Thursday if some of them are becoming less enamored with the bullish case. I will say that I myself still expect the market to recover within a few weeks or so. That's still my expectation though I do expect lower prices before the selling is reversed longer term.
Perhaps the most notable thing about these charts is that the attempt to retake the 200 dma has failed twice. I do believe the lows will be tested. In fact, I think the market is likely to go even lower.
This evening, the CBOE has not reported. I don't know why this indicator is released later now. It used to be posted around 6 p.m. EST.
Breadth, which was already bearish, turned back down. TRIN and TRINQ are bearish for Wednesday.
The indicators suggest more selling for Wednesday. I am flipping from neutral back to bearish now that the market appears to be tipping its hand. While NAAIM did have a significant bullish aspect last week, some of these money managers are likely willing to take deep draw downs if they believe the selling pressure will not last and that the market will recover. We may also see a more bearish reading on Thursday if some of them are becoming less enamored with the bullish case. I will say that I myself still expect the market to recover within a few weeks or so. That's still my expectation though I do expect lower prices before the selling is reversed longer term.
coolhand
Well-known member
So, Monday's action was not a continuation of last week's accelerated sell-off.
Looking at the charts, we can see we got a big bounce. Price is now well off the intraday low made Friday. Momentum may be turning and RSI exited an oversold condition. There is still plenty of upside resistance to cut through, however.
The CBOE is still leaning heavily bearish. TRIN and TRINQ are flat.
Breadth turned up, but remains negative.
Given volatility was at extreme levels, it is not a given that a bottom is in. I believe there is a good chance the lows get tested again. The only thing that gives me pause is the NAAIM reading, which still showed plenty of bulls.
I am remaining neutral.
Looking at the charts, we can see we got a big bounce. Price is now well off the intraday low made Friday. Momentum may be turning and RSI exited an oversold condition. There is still plenty of upside resistance to cut through, however.
The CBOE is still leaning heavily bearish. TRIN and TRINQ are flat.
Breadth turned up, but remains negative.
Given volatility was at extreme levels, it is not a given that a bottom is in. I believe there is a good chance the lows get tested again. The only thing that gives me pause is the NAAIM reading, which still showed plenty of bulls.
I am remaining neutral.
Rod
Well-known member
You are correct. IMHO, COVID-19 certainly isn't the reason for the initial pullback. It was already long overdue. But, COVID-19 seems to have been the accelerant, along with bond yields (which have been inverting long before COVID-19 came along) for the fastest correction in history. It was going to happen sooner or later with or without COVID-19. COVID-19 simply allowed us to get it out of the way sooner and much more rapidly. But, now we have to deal with the long-term, unforeseen affects of COVID-19 upon the global economy.
Perhaps Mr. Market will once again become complacent to COVID-19 like it was doing the previous weeks leading up to the pullback and eventual correction... when I was sounding the alarm on here. :cheesy: Or, is that now too much to ask for?
Mixed signals = more down action...imo, and history of similar events confirms, sentiment has to reach low 20s bulls, and high 40s bears, for something like this to bottom and turn. Volume, while large, can go higher. This type of event, a disease (if that is the catalyst for selling, which it may not be 100%), isn't going to be mitigated by interest rate cuts. Even if others think different, the FED knows that and won't intervene. Seeya at 2600.
coolhand
Well-known member
The current sell-off is now in historic territory in terms of speed and depth.
The charts speak for themselves. The question is, how much worse can it get? There was an interesting reversal that happened in the final 20 minutes or so of Friday's trading. Was that the bottom? I don't know, but it won't take long to find out.
For Monday, the CBOE is very bearish. But interestingly, TRIN is very bullish and TRINQ is also leaning that way.
Breadth remains very bearish.
Sentiment shows TSP Talk very beared up. That is probably how many surveys look about now. However, NAAIM is not nearly as bearish. That survey gives the bulls hope that a reversal is just a matter of time. It is still not a guarantee, but that is what is suggested.
So, we have mixed indicators, which is not unusual given there are probably entities running in both directions about now. I am going neutral as a result, but it won't take long to see if this week picks up where the last one left off (aside from the late day rally on Friday).
The charts speak for themselves. The question is, how much worse can it get? There was an interesting reversal that happened in the final 20 minutes or so of Friday's trading. Was that the bottom? I don't know, but it won't take long to find out.
For Monday, the CBOE is very bearish. But interestingly, TRIN is very bullish and TRINQ is also leaning that way.
Breadth remains very bearish.
Sentiment shows TSP Talk very beared up. That is probably how many surveys look about now. However, NAAIM is not nearly as bearish. That survey gives the bulls hope that a reversal is just a matter of time. It is still not a guarantee, but that is what is suggested.
So, we have mixed indicators, which is not unusual given there are probably entities running in both directions about now. I am going neutral as a result, but it won't take long to see if this week picks up where the last one left off (aside from the late day rally on Friday).
Boghie
Well-known member
Thanks guys...
I hope the Central Bank sits this stupidity out. They are there to protect the value of money - not play games with the stock market.
This should be short lived, but I lost my sticky pants today. I'm still going to have a decent chuck in equities (total of 50%) but I don't really want to 'play the game'. That is why I underweighted the 'F Fund' from my normal Conservative Allocation. Huge money has been flowing into AGG during this washout, I don't want to be around when it starts flowing out.
GLHF
I hope the Central Bank sits this stupidity out. They are there to protect the value of money - not play games with the stock market.
This should be short lived, but I lost my sticky pants today. I'm still going to have a decent chuck in equities (total of 50%) but I don't really want to 'play the game'. That is why I underweighted the 'F Fund' from my normal Conservative Allocation. Huge money has been flowing into AGG during this washout, I don't want to be around when it starts flowing out.
GLHF
Boghie
Well-known member
Noticed that too. Commodities like gold, silver, oil are getting hammered. Usually those are safe havens.
What do you mean by 'CB'? I have never seen that acronym before...
coolhand
Well-known member
It isn't just stocks getting slammed. Precious metals are getting hammered too. It sure looks like the CB is making a desperate attempt to stay in control by attempting to decimate the financial system. I really don't think this will work, but it still won't be fun riding through it.
coolhand
Well-known member
Another pretty ugly day today. An attempted reversal was itself reversed.
We have plenty of technical damage now. Price closed pretty much at session lows.
Breadth is also ugly.
The CBOE was bearish again yesterday, but they are not reporting until later in the evening. I don't have a read this evening either.
TRIN remains bearish and TRINQ remains neutral.
NAAIM is bearish in the short term, but still bullish longer term.
Lots of fear mongering going in the MSM. Try not to get wrapped up in it. There are agendas behind them.
I remain bearish for now. I do not know where the bottom might be, but it would not surprise me if we are still well away from the bottom. I do expect some up days here and there while this selling plays out.
We have plenty of technical damage now. Price closed pretty much at session lows.
Breadth is also ugly.
The CBOE was bearish again yesterday, but they are not reporting until later in the evening. I don't have a read this evening either.
TRIN remains bearish and TRINQ remains neutral.
NAAIM is bearish in the short term, but still bullish longer term.
Lots of fear mongering going in the MSM. Try not to get wrapped up in it. There are agendas behind them.
I remain bearish for now. I do not know where the bottom might be, but it would not surprise me if we are still well away from the bottom. I do expect some up days here and there while this selling plays out.
1965Vintage
Member
Sending good thoughts your way CH. I hope your Father gets well soon!
cinnamondad
New member
James 5:16 "the ferverent effectual prayer of a righteous man availeth much"
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