coolhand's Account Talk

[Bravo Sierra]

FED: "I know what you're thinking: 'Did he fire six shots or only five?'"

Market: "That was six, that was definitely your last bullet."

FED: "Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement, I've kinda lost track myself. But being this is a FED rate cut, the most powerful weapon in the world, and would blow your chart clean up..."

Market: "Well, it might, you know, under normal circumstances and all- but what good is free fiat currency when everyone's hunkered down streaming Netflix with a surplus of toilet paper and bottled water? And that was your last bullet, dude."

FED: "...you've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do you, punk?"

Market: "Yeah, not so much. Would you please back off, you know, social distance and all...but that was your last bullet, definitely your last bullet, so I think we're both screwed for awhile."

 

[Rod]

Every day lately has been a crap shoot. But ya never know. I've learned not to get excited until the last 1/2 hour of trading, especially the last 5 minutes.

With the FED lowering the the interest rate to 0.25% I think we may have another UP day TOMORROW. So far the futures are down.

Fed slashes main interest rate to near zero in historic move designed to cushion economic blow of coronavirus pandemic

https://www.businessinsider.com/fed...-holdings-coronavirus-pandemic-economy-2020-3

 

[coolhand]

With the FED lowering the the interest rate to 0.25% I think we may have another UP day TOMORROW. So far the futures are down.

Fed slashes main interest rate to near zero in historic move designed to cushion economic blow of coronavirus pandemic

https://www.businessinsider.com/fed...-holdings-coronavirus-pandemic-economy-2020-3

We'll see, but there is a lot more churn coming. Things are only going to get more interesting as we move forward.

 

[nnuut]

With the FED lowering the the interest rate to 0.25% I think we may have another UP day TOMORROW. So far the futures are down.

Fed slashes main interest rate to near zero in historic move designed to cushion economic blow of coronavirus pandemic

https://www.businessinsider.com/fed...-holdings-coronavirus-pandemic-economy-2020-3

 

[coolhand]

Today's sell-off feels like a switch may have been pulled. There are certainly reasons for the market to nose dive, but NAAIM did not forecast that last week. Not only were they pretty bulled up, but there wasn't any real shorting among them (of significance). It is too soon to say how this plays out, but I would not get too comfortable with the bullish case. I think we should always be ready in case "it's different this time". The Virus is wreaking havoc in many ways. It may be the catalyst that drives the market lower (when they are ready). And it's possible they are ready. I'm not bearish yet, but I'm not complacent either.

In my post dated 2/24, I said that "Today's sell-off fees like a switch may have been pulled".

It was. It was the beginning of serious downside pressure culminating into a bear market.

Friday's rally was pretty impressive. It also feels like a switch may have been pulled, but I am not as comfortable with that feeling as I was the first time.




The rally, impressive as it was, did not completely erase the previous day's losses. With volatility at a high level, the market could just as easily reverse once more. It's just too early to embrace the long side in my opinion, and I know how it feels to be wrong and watch price continue to rise while remaining on the sidelines.

The latest reading from NAAIM is heavily beared up. The CBOE is also beared up. I don't like betting against smart money (NAAIM), but it's only a weekly sentiment reading and things could change between readings.



Breadth bounced again, but the trend is still down according to the chart.

This is a tough market right now. It's a guessing game what happens day to day with everything that is going on. The indicators are still bearish and that is what my personal sentiment is tied to. Let's see how Monday goes after Friday's moon shot.

 

[Whipsaw]

I'm debt free save for the mortgage, which I'm paying extra on to close it out early.

 

[Bullitt]

Why not strive to be debt free instead of playing musical chairs with a mortgage the rest of your life? Reminds me of July 2007 when Chuck Prince, CEO of Citigroup said, "When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.” He was a professional with access to the best information available and we know how that turned out.

I wonder how many people use HELOC's to pay for the lifetime lease on their SUV?

It's an unsustainable system.

 

[Tsunami]

That's what we were going to do and literally a day or two ago you could get a 30 year VA loan for 3% and now it is 3.75%. There are reasons I found on Google for it such as lenders being overwhelmed driving the rates significantly higher. https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/mortgage-rates-coronavirus-20200312.html

Wow, I feel even luckier after reading these posts since my wife and I locked in our refi rate with our VA loan at Navy Federal at 2.875% (with zero points) a few days ago.
They're definitely overwhelmed since we haven't heard a peep from them since then, but I've get that locked in rate in writing. :smile:
I think there will be another opportunity in the future though as rates gravitate toward zero, maybe around June this year.

 

[coolhand]

The bears had their way with the market again today. A massive liquidity injection delivered a brief respite, but then the selling kicked in again.




Ugly just got uglier. Momentum is almost vertical to the downside.



Breadth remains quite ugly too (of course).

NAAIM got more bearish. They were pretty predictive of the upside for a long time. The reading this week suggests more selling for the next week (not necessarily each day).

I remain bearish.

 

[MaStA]

VA Loan, I used mine 3 times and if needed 1 more is available.

That's what we were going to do and literally a day or two ago you could get a 30 year VA loan for 3% and now it is 3.75%. There are reasons I found on Google for it such as lenders being overwhelmed driving the rates significantly higher. https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/mortgage-rates-coronavirus-20200312.html

 

[nnuut]

Heck my wife and I were looking at houses since we are about to PCS and mortgage rates just went up almost 1% it seems overnight or over the last couple of days. We have never purchased a house, but I think that may have been enough to scare me off considering the mortgage was already going to be more than my BAH in the area.

VA Loan, I used mine 3 times and if needed 1 more is available.

 

[Boghie]

With bonds, gold, and silver all dumping at the same time as equities I think this means a cash run.

Thus, deflation as the dollar gets stronger. That is probably why the Fed is throwing money into the system. They don't want a strong dollar. They want their dollar - whatever that is.

And, don't forget - the price of oil just dumped as Saudi Arabia and Russia started playing games to regain market share. That also makes the dollar stronger.

The Fed is always worried about inflation, but we have been on the edge of deflation since 2007. Deflation is a very bad thing.

Don't do debt, get out of debt. Go Full Dave Ramsey!!!

 

[MaStA]

Heck my wife and I were looking at houses since we are about to PCS and mortgage rates just went up almost 1% it seems overnight or over the last couple of days. We have never purchased a house, but I think that may have been enough to scare me off considering the mortgage was already going to be more than my BAH in the area.

 

[albacore5]

I have never seen the F fund down 4.2%! I guess people are abandoning treasuries as well as minerals as well as equities. Mad dash to go to cash I guess

 

[shitepoke]

Cool- is that a mirage I'm seeing or are bonds really at -3.3% at the moment??
EJJ

 

[coolhand]

They're still talking about the details on CNBC, but the Feds announcement included $500B of 3-month treasury purchases today at 1:30 pm eastern, $500B more tomorrow, $500B earlier today I think...$1.5 Trillion total for this week...this is not to fix the stock market, it's a desperate attempt to keep the repo market afloat and keep rates down. If they don't succeed it sounds like game over, that was their best shot...rates will rise out of control, the government will no longer be able to service the debt.

The plan is to do $1 Trillion every week for as long as necessary. This is NOT a good thing!, thus the market was not impressed for very long. This is getting really serious, like October 2008. I'm wondering if I need to get some cash at the ATM before there's talk of the system seizing up.

This is exactly what Martin Armstrong has been warning was coming for months now, the "mother of all crisis", and now it's happening.

I expect this action to be an extinction level event for the CB, though it will still take time to play out.

 

[Tsunami]

They're still talking about the details on CNBC, but the Feds announcement included $500B of 3-month treasury purchases today at 1:30 pm eastern, $500B more tomorrow, $500B earlier today I think...$1.5 Trillion total for this week...this is not to fix the stock market, it's a desperate attempt to keep the repo market afloat and keep rates down. If they don't succeed it sounds like game over, that was their best shot...rates will rise out of control, the government will no longer be able to service the debt.

The plan is to do $1 Trillion every week for as long as necessary. This is NOT a good thing!, thus the market was not impressed for very long. This is getting really serious, like October 2008. I'm wondering if I need to get some cash at the ATM before there's talk of the system seizing up.

This is exactly what Martin Armstrong has been warning was coming for months now, the "mother of all crisis", and now it's happening.

 

[coolhand]

Coolhand, do you have anything that informs you of who/what or what type of entity made that huge buy in today. The proxies for F/C/S all had a huge mid-day spike.

I'm thinking programmed trading off a -25% marker from the highs, but it could be big managed money. Any proxy for that...

It is probably programmed trading as a lot of stuff is unwinding. The banks are doing most of the selling. They own the market, not us. They just let us play in their sandbox (casino).

 

[Boghie]

Coolhand, do you have anything that informs you of who/what or what type of entity made that huge buy in today. The proxies for F/C/S all had a huge mid-day spike.

I'm thinking programmed trading off a -25% marker from the highs, but it could be big managed money. Any proxy for that...

 

[amoeba]

Eventually we will run out of sellers and the bottom will be in.

The volumes in key ETFs like SPY, while elevated for some weeks, suggest this is not the case. Yet. But close. Double that volume and I'd say its soup (screaming buy).

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