coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

The bulls had quite a bounce today. Price soared, erasing much of the past few days of losses.




RSI has turned up. Momentum suggests it may be poised to turn.

Sounds bullish. And maybe it is beyond the next day or so, but as big a bounce as it was, it's still just 1 day. We'll have to see if signals can confirm.

Breadth turned up, but is still bearish.

I am tempted to go neutral from my bearish disposition, but it's too soon for me. If the market rises again tomorrow I may shift to neutral. I am not ready to go bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Volatility remains with us and so does the trend, which remains down.




The S&P continued to hit new lows, while the DWPCF is remaining above its last Wednesday low. The 900 level appears to be support, but I don't trust it at all. Not with the S&P continuing to fall.

Breadth remains bearish. Of course, we already know NAAIM is very bearish.

I see nothing in today's action to change my current sentiment, which remains bearish.

 

[coolhand]

It was a brutal week for the bulls. Losses among the major averages were in double digits for the week.




The charts tell the story. The S&P hit a fresh low on Friday. The DWCPF did not, but it may catch up next week.

Breadth remains bearish. NAAIM is bearish.

I continue to believe that the market will continue to lose value for a while longer yet. I think the bottom comes in early to mid April (that's my best guess). Maybe the daily losses get smaller as we near the bottom. We'll have to see.

I remain bearish.

 

[coolhand]

Mint says the demand for Silver Eagles is up 300% for March, they are out of them. JM Bullion, Silvertowne and most major dealers are out not only of monster boxes but bars as well. Silvertowne says shipments will take 10-12 weeks, major disconnect to economic supply and demand when looking at spot price

I've heard, but cannot confirm, that by mid to end of April we will see gold and silver up much higher. We'll see.

 

[gegor1957]

Mint says the demand for Silver Eagles is up 300% for March, they are out of them. JM Bullion, Silvertowne and most major dealers are out not only of monster boxes but bars as well. Silvertowne says shipments will take 10-12 weeks, major disconnect to economic supply and demand when looking at spot price

 

[Whipsaw]

Small Caps were poised for a strong 2020 according to some analysts... hoping this is still the case when this virus thing blows over.

 

[tsptalk]

I'm not sure if I believe the price on the DWCPF or not. The charts say it was up almost 5.9%, but the S&P was up only marginally. I've never seen that kind of separation before. I'm assuming it's correct.

Oil, that is. Black gold. Texas Tea.

The S-fund was down 10% on Wednesday because oil was down over 20%, then oil bounced back 24% today.

 

[coolhand]

I'm not sure if I believe the price on the DWCPF or not. The charts say it was up almost 5.9%, but the S&P was up only marginally. I've never seen that kind of separation before. I'm assuming it's correct.

In any event, the market bounced today. It still doesn't change the trend. Futures are down again this evening.

NAAIM came in even more bearish this week. They can't get much more bearish after this reading. Beware.

Breadth bounced, but remains bearish.

It's still too soon to look for a bottom I think. I remain bearish.

 

[coolhand]

silver is down because it is mainly an industrial metal now. it reacts to manufacturing slowdowns like copper does.

That does not explain why physical silver is being snapped up at a very fast pace (I mean it's disappearing from inventories). It also does not explain why all metals are dropping, not just silver. And then there is the very real disconnect now between price in the paper market (spot) and what sellers are selling it for and what buyers are willing to pay. In other words, not many care about the spot price right now.

The game is changing.

 

[Valkyrie]

It's anyone's guess. The market is largely driven by algos. And there is a battle (political) over control of the global financial system. It stands to reason there will be a lot that doesn't make sense as it plays out. Silver's significant nose dive is another thing that doesn't really make sense. I wish I could tell you with certainty, but I doubt even a lot of insiders really know, though they'll posit speculation. How's Frenchee doing? You still hang out at IHub?

silver is down because it is mainly an industrial metal now. it reacts to manufacturing slowdowns like copper does.

 

[Bravo Sierra]

Lost touch with Frenchee, unfortunately.
I check IHub from time to time b/c in spite of the fact I don't own any IDCC at the moment (sold at over 80 to pay for some of a daughter's grad school, yay) I still love that stupid company. They just got beat to hell, BTW, and have about $15 per share cash after debt and a real P/E (backward, of course, who's isn't) of about 26 if my math is right. Their price has gone stupid low (and high) in the past, but I'm hoping for stupid low again before too long. Regards

 

[coolhand]

Question: Any thoughts on the late day rallies today (3/18) and last Friday? I understand short covering, low volume and the hyper-reactivity currently in play (I think), but the size of late day moves in an environment in which there are lower highs and lower lows is puzzling to me.

It's somewhat more understandable on a Friday, I suppose (if market psychology doesn't understand the exponential mathematics of pandemics). And perhaps today's late action is just a technical reaction revolving around S&P's 2350 level. Anyway, enough of my thoughts- yours?

It's anyone's guess. The market is largely driven by algos. And there is a battle (political) over control of the global financial system. It stands to reason there will be a lot that doesn't make sense as it plays out. Silver's significant nose dive is another thing that doesn't really make sense. I wish I could tell you with certainty, but I doubt even a lot of insiders really know, though they'll posit speculation. How's Frenchee doing? You still hang out at IHub?

 

[Bravo Sierra]

Question: Any thoughts on the late day rallies today (3/18) and last Friday? I understand short covering, low volume and the hyper-reactivity currently in play (I think), but the size of late day moves in an environment in which there are lower highs and lower lows is puzzling to me.

It's somewhat more understandable on a Friday, I suppose (if market psychology doesn't understand the exponential mathematics of pandemics). And perhaps today's late action is just a technical reaction revolving around S&P's 2350 level. Anyway, enough of my thoughts- yours?

 

[coolhand]

True to form (of late), the market reversed Tuesday's gains and plumbed new lows.




Price on the S&P actually closed above Monday's low, but the DWCPF continues to fall off a cliff, so there isn't anything bullish to read into these charts yet.



Breadth is tracking lower with the stock charts.

I remain bearish. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

 

[coolhand]

The market gave us another relief bounce, but they are not doing much to counter the overall damage to price. At least to this point.




The way it's been going, I would expect another down day tomorrow. It is possible the size of the moves may start diminishing at some point as the market eventually finds some measure of stability.



Breadth also bounced, but obviously remains bearish.

Precious metal is selling out across many bullion dealers and coin markets. What is available is priced at higher premiums above spot (primarily silver) than was the case just last week or even this past Monday. I do not expect "spot" to be relevant much longer. I'm thinking it becomes a relic of the past within weeks. At least in the current paper market. They may find an alternative to find more realistic price points as the paper market implodes.

But as for the stock market, there is still no solid evidence that a bottom is in. I remain bearish.

 

[coolhand]

Here is a link to one of the PM dealers I watch. Check out their alert at the top of the page.

https://www.moneymetals.com/precious-metals-charts

 

[coolhand]

Thx again for your postings/thoughts and comments! Can you confirm/elaborate on your meaning earlier "... precious metals decoupling from paper... physicals.."?
BTW - today in my relatively small Robinhood account, after going to nearly zero-invested over over the prior couple days of "stop-loss sells", I went in early for PMs and bond funds, and a handful off equity stocks that seemed to be holding up... generally that portfolio was up for the day & I gained a few bucks back.
THX again!

Everyday I watch what PM is fetching in the open market (EBAY, PM Distributors, etc.) and I've noticed that many of the large distributors (APMEX, Bullion Exchange, etc.) are or have run out of certain types of PM (especially silver). They are also cautioning buyers that there is limits on how much they can buy as well as distribution and delivery delays. I also noted today that pricing did not change nearly as much for the physical metal even though paper (SLV, GLD) was falling hard. This was especially true of silver, which has been falling off a cliff like the market. This is the decoupling I am seeing.

For many years, PM dealers and experts have lamented that paper was preventing physical from finding its true price point. That's because the big banks (some of them anyway) have been rigging the pricing using paper (SLV, GLD). This will stop before much longer I am sure.

 

[FAAM]

Thx again for your postings/thoughts and comments! Can you confirm/elaborate on your meaning earlier "... precious metals decoupling from paper... physicals.."?
BTW - today in my relatively small Robinhood account, after going to nearly zero-invested over over the prior couple days of "stop-loss sells", I went in early for PMs and bond funds, and a handful off equity stocks that seemed to be holding up... generally that portfolio was up for the day & I gained a few bucks back.
THX again!

 

[coolhand]

The bulls got trampled again today. Not only did the market give back Friday's gains, but plumbed new lows.




Both charts show some serious damage to price with no indication that a bottom might be in. Price closed at the lows of the day.



No surprise that breadth is also bearish.

Precious metals have been falling along with the stock market, which isn't really a surprise, but I do find it interesting that real estate seems to be weathering this turbulence fairly well (where I live anyway). At least for the moment. I am seeing a lot of new construction around my neighborhood over the past few months.

But the stock market remains is dire straits and I have a hard time seeing this turn around quickly. I still think it may be April sometime before we see stability, but that's just a hunch on my part. In any event, I remain bearish.

 

[coolhand]

It appears that the physical precious metals market is decoupling from the paper market. Prices of physical are commanding a higher premium as a result.

Things are changing quickly in many ways. We are not in Kansas anymore. (That's a good thing)