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coolhand's Account Talk
- Thread starter coolhand
- Start date
coolhand
Well-known member
I thought the market might bounce again after Wednesday's power move lower, but that is not likely given that futures trading has been halted for a 2nd day this week as they point to yet another multi-percent drop.
My guess is that stability may not occur until at least sometime in April. That's when the worst of the viral epidemic should be over. But that says nothing of the carnage in oil and bonds. While precious metals are not in rally mode, they aren't losing nearly the value of stocks. I suspect they will recover much faster too (to new highs).
My guess is that stability may not occur until at least sometime in April. That's when the worst of the viral epidemic should be over. But that says nothing of the carnage in oil and bonds. While precious metals are not in rally mode, they aren't losing nearly the value of stocks. I suspect they will recover much faster too (to new highs).
coolhand
Well-known member
It didn't take long for the bottom to fall out again. The volatility is something else.
We are officially in bear market territory. We can see that both charts show price closing at fresh lows. The DWCPF is faring worse than the S&P to this point. That is not a surprise. Momentum is still falling. The charts are oversold, but that doesn't mean much in the context of the scale of selling taking place.
Breadth remains on a downward trajectory.
There is still no indication that a bottom is in, but bounces are always possible in the interim. NAAIM reports tomorrow. I remain bearish, but Thursday may see another relief rally.
We are officially in bear market territory. We can see that both charts show price closing at fresh lows. The DWCPF is faring worse than the S&P to this point. That is not a surprise. Momentum is still falling. The charts are oversold, but that doesn't mean much in the context of the scale of selling taking place.
Breadth remains on a downward trajectory.
There is still no indication that a bottom is in, but bounces are always possible in the interim. NAAIM reports tomorrow. I remain bearish, but Thursday may see another relief rally.
coolhand
Well-known member
It's a dead cat bounce for sure. Anyone who knows anything about charts knows it.
The problem is....in the TSP you are limited to what you can do.
The TSP is a joke!
I may take everything out, pay the taxes and penalties.
To hell with the government and their limits.
I can't wait to leave this outfit.
I'm so tired of watching money wasted at my facility. $150k for a heat and air unit?
(2000 sq. ft building!)
$600 for simple shelves from GSA?
GSA is worse than the Mafia!
Criminal!
It's sickening! The waste!
The government is broken. I feel dirty working for them. Can't wait to retire and get this filth off my hands.
And I'm a Republican!!!
Trump was supposed to drain the swamp......
But I still have to work in hip waders to keep the muck out!
I'm "fed" up!
Sorry for the rant, but I'm upset tonight.
Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app
You sound like me when I was still active in Civil Service.
1965Vintage
Member
It's a dead cat bounce for sure. Anyone who knows anything about charts knows it.
The problem is....in the TSP you are limited to what you can do.
The TSP is a joke!
I may take everything out, pay the taxes and penalties.
To hell with the government and their limits.
I can't wait to leave this outfit.
I'm so tired of watching money wasted at my facility. $150k for a heat and air unit?
(2000 sq. ft building!)
$600 for simple shelves from GSA?
GSA is worse than the Mafia!
Criminal!
It's sickening! The waste!
The government is broken. I feel dirty working for them. Can't wait to retire and get this filth off my hands.
And I'm a Republican!!!
Trump was supposed to drain the swamp......
But I still have to work in hip waders to keep the muck out!
I'm "fed" up!
Sorry for the rant, but I'm upset tonight.
Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app
The problem is....in the TSP you are limited to what you can do.
The TSP is a joke!
I may take everything out, pay the taxes and penalties.
To hell with the government and their limits.
I can't wait to leave this outfit.
I'm so tired of watching money wasted at my facility. $150k for a heat and air unit?
(2000 sq. ft building!)
$600 for simple shelves from GSA?
GSA is worse than the Mafia!
Criminal!
It's sickening! The waste!
The government is broken. I feel dirty working for them. Can't wait to retire and get this filth off my hands.
And I'm a Republican!!!
Trump was supposed to drain the swamp......
But I still have to work in hip waders to keep the muck out!
I'm "fed" up!
Sorry for the rant, but I'm upset tonight.
Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app
coolhand
Well-known member
The market give the bulls a relief today. It felt good, I'm sure, but it may be a dead cat bounce.
There is no indication that a bottom may be in, unless it's a "V" bottom. I suspect it isn't.
Breadth bounced, but remains bearish.
The CBOE is very bearish heading into Wednesday.
Futures are already pointing lower. Volatility will very likely make it challenging to pick buy and sell points. I remain bearish.
There is no indication that a bottom may be in, unless it's a "V" bottom. I suspect it isn't.
Breadth bounced, but remains bearish.
The CBOE is very bearish heading into Wednesday.
Futures are already pointing lower. Volatility will very likely make it challenging to pick buy and sell points. I remain bearish.
pmaloney
Member
Maybe arrogant, maybe ignorant but the bottome line is that whatever or however the tests were conducted, right now they are only reporting around 600 known infections and about 22 deaths in the US but these are obviously the first reliable test results of those that were obviously showing severe symptoms. The original social media of a communistic quarantine solution were disturbing but further testing will probably normalize the death ratio further down.
I'm far more worried about the repeat of the Saudi cheap oil glut of 2015 to 2016. :smile:
I'm far more worried about the repeat of the Saudi cheap oil glut of 2015 to 2016. :smile:
Rod
Well-known member
Darn right.
1965Vintage
Member
It wasn't like there weren't warning signs.
It was actually crazy how long the market ignored the Coronavirus. Kind of "arrogant" for lack of a better word.
Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app
It was actually crazy how long the market ignored the Coronavirus. Kind of "arrogant" for lack of a better word.
Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app
bmneveu
Well-known member
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
Gosh... sadly I agree. Not much to be said at this point. 
coolhand
Well-known member
By now, many are now realizing that buying the dip is not working. The CB has always lulled market participants (over a long period of time) to expect higher prices over time. It works and works and works for a long time and then...the plug gets pulled when we don't expect it. That's what they do. And it comes down a whole lot faster than it went it up. Great system, huh? Who benefits?
It ain't us. You have to be in the club and we ain't in it (George Carlin quip). Profanity laced George Carlin video...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKUaqFzZLxU
What can I say about these charts that isn't already obvious? The market has fallen off a cliff.
Breadth is just as ugly.
I'm going to toss TRIN and TRINQ in my commentary for now because they are not helping at all.
But NAAIM is. And they're pretty bearish as of last week. The CBOE is heavily beared up again for tomorrow.
I don't think the carnage is over. It will stop eventually, but the market was really, really up there and now has a long way it can fall. I have no idea where the bottom might be either. 666 was the bottom for the S&P in last really big sell-off. And it was no accident it stopped at that number. I don't think we come anywhere near that number this time, but it won't be up to the CB like it has in the past. They have already lost control.
I remain bearish.
It ain't us. You have to be in the club and we ain't in it (George Carlin quip). Profanity laced George Carlin video...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKUaqFzZLxU
What can I say about these charts that isn't already obvious? The market has fallen off a cliff.
Breadth is just as ugly.
I'm going to toss TRIN and TRINQ in my commentary for now because they are not helping at all.
But NAAIM is. And they're pretty bearish as of last week. The CBOE is heavily beared up again for tomorrow.
I don't think the carnage is over. It will stop eventually, but the market was really, really up there and now has a long way it can fall. I have no idea where the bottom might be either. 666 was the bottom for the S&P in last really big sell-off. And it was no accident it stopped at that number. I don't think we come anywhere near that number this time, but it won't be up to the CB like it has in the past. They have already lost control.
I remain bearish.
tom4jean
Member
Loved the last lines, you sounded like the oracle
. Of course she told him what he needed to hear.Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
coolhand
Well-known member
It was a wild week last week, and price on the S&P 500 and DWCPF closed mixed on the week. One was up and the other was down.
The S&P 500 closed with a moderate weekly gain (doesn't feel like it, does it?). However, the DWCPF got whacked and closed at a fresh low. Momentum points lower on both charts.Price is under the 200 dma on both charts as well.
I don't show this chart much, but this is where I get my CBOE reading. The CBOE is considered dumb money, but they have been bearish for about 2 weeks now. Dumb? I have not been using this sentiment as a contrarian indicator for some time now. I treat it more like smart money, but it isn't as accurate as NAAIM, which is true smart money. NAAIM gave us a solid bearish reading last Thursday.
TRIN and TRINQ are neutral heading into Monday.
Breadth headed even lower on Friday. This is not a healthy chart if you're a bull.
My perspective on sentiment has changed over the past 2 years or so. Because the CB has been losing control (or lost control), I believe many indicators are now suspect. I also believe that the current market carnage is not so much historic as it is biblical. Many of you will not understand what I am talking about (some of you will), but I am very confident that over time much will become more clear as things come into focus in the rear view mirror. My point here is that lower prices are likely, but I don't know how low or how long this goes on. The oil market is reeling. Bonds are in trouble. The banks are in trouble (QE, REPO, etc.). We have news of the virus (fear mongering) just about everywhere (constantly). I could go on, but you get the picture.
I am watching gold and silver carefully, because I don't think it will be long before they break free of manipulation. J.P. Morgan is under investigation for RICO charges (Jamie Dimon supposedly had emergency heart surgery in the past 2 days). Draw your own conclusions, but I don't think it's a coincidence. I am hearing that the days of price rigging may be coming to a close in the not-too-distant future.
It seems chaos is accelerating. If ever the phrase "it's different this time" applies, I think this may be it.
Sorry if I have no good news, I am just telling it as I see it (currently). I remain bearish.
The S&P 500 closed with a moderate weekly gain (doesn't feel like it, does it?). However, the DWCPF got whacked and closed at a fresh low. Momentum points lower on both charts.Price is under the 200 dma on both charts as well.
I don't show this chart much, but this is where I get my CBOE reading. The CBOE is considered dumb money, but they have been bearish for about 2 weeks now. Dumb? I have not been using this sentiment as a contrarian indicator for some time now. I treat it more like smart money, but it isn't as accurate as NAAIM, which is true smart money. NAAIM gave us a solid bearish reading last Thursday.
TRIN and TRINQ are neutral heading into Monday.
Breadth headed even lower on Friday. This is not a healthy chart if you're a bull.
My perspective on sentiment has changed over the past 2 years or so. Because the CB has been losing control (or lost control), I believe many indicators are now suspect. I also believe that the current market carnage is not so much historic as it is biblical. Many of you will not understand what I am talking about (some of you will), but I am very confident that over time much will become more clear as things come into focus in the rear view mirror. My point here is that lower prices are likely, but I don't know how low or how long this goes on. The oil market is reeling. Bonds are in trouble. The banks are in trouble (QE, REPO, etc.). We have news of the virus (fear mongering) just about everywhere (constantly). I could go on, but you get the picture.
I am watching gold and silver carefully, because I don't think it will be long before they break free of manipulation. J.P. Morgan is under investigation for RICO charges (Jamie Dimon supposedly had emergency heart surgery in the past 2 days). Draw your own conclusions, but I don't think it's a coincidence. I am hearing that the days of price rigging may be coming to a close in the not-too-distant future.
It seems chaos is accelerating. If ever the phrase "it's different this time" applies, I think this may be it.
Sorry if I have no good news, I am just telling it as I see it (currently). I remain bearish.
coolhand
Well-known member
This isn't getting a whole lot of attention, but it's related to the global economic chaos that is currently in progress.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/saudi-arabia-starts-all-out-oil-war-destroys-opec-flooding-market-slashing-oil-prices
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/saudi-arabia-starts-all-out-oil-war-destroys-opec-flooding-market-slashing-oil-prices
Thx, I see that now...and...I also see how NAAIM bearish sentiment drop similar to this week also preceeded the further collapse in late 2018.
Sent from my SM-J320P using Tapatalk
coolhand
Well-known member
If I understand you, AAII is not the same as NAAIM, which stands for National Association of Active Investment Managers. One is dumb money and the other (NAAIM) is smart money.
