coolhand's Account Talk

[Guest2]

Big open.... weak close??

Shhhhhhhh ! Stop the negative vibes (Steadygain Reference) ! :nuts:

If that chart of the S.S.'s Buy and Sell signals is accurate, they are
nothing less then amazing. The TSP participants will have to endore
an extra day (within a sell signal) due to our day before restrictions.
But the Seven Sentinal's are now part of my tool box and I wish to
extend my thanks to the Cool Dude Coolhand !

 

[WorkFE]

If the market drops again today does that mean we throw one out and call it the Six Sentinals
Only kidding, CH new toy has been awesome.

 

[coolhand]

Having a seemingly reliable trading mechanism to go by does take a lot of stress out of decision making.

From Briefing.com this morning:

Stressed by Jobs, not Banks
Last Update: 08-May-09 08:54 ET

http://briefing.com/GeneralContent/...me=Investor&ArticleId=NS20090508085428PageOne

After yesterday's close, the government made public the results of its stress tests for 19 of the nation's largest financial institutions. It was found that 10 of the 19 banks needed to add an additional $74 billion more in common equity in order to have an adequate capital buffer to deal with a worse-than-forecast economic environment in the next two years.

These results produced a collective sigh of relief heard around the world, as the financial stocks this morning -- even a number of those that need to dilute shareholders further with capital raising activity -- are trading higher.

In brief, it has been the market's conclusion that these collective results are much less worrisome than had been thought weeks ago. Accordingly, it is now envisioning a new phase for the banks in which they start earning their way out of the TARP halfway house in which they now reside.

It doesn't matter at the moment if you don't share the market's same optimism about the banks. Their stocks are headed higher and they will carry the broader market along with them.

Ahead of the April employment report, the futures market was signaling an opening gain for the cash market on the order of 1.8%. In other words, the market was going to reclaim all of Thursday's lost ground and then some.

That indication has weakened a bit in the wake of the jobs report. The stock market is now indicated to open 1.4% higher.

The April decline in payrolls of 539,000 was a smaller decline than economists' median expectation of 600,000, but still represents bad economic news.

Part of the smaller decline is explained by a 72,000 jump in government payrolls, which hardly helps the wealth-producing private sector. There, widespread losses occurred, including a drop of 149,000 in manufacturing and 110,000 in construction. It is hard to derive a positive spin from the recent market argument that at least the rate of decline in economic data is slowing.

The 0.4 increase in the unemployment rate to 8.9% was in-line with expectations, but also noteworthy.

The 2009 Obama Administration budget (ended Sept. 30, 2009) called for a $1.7 trillion deficit. The economic assumptions assumed an 8.1% average unemployment rate for 2009. That looks like a very long stretch at this time, as the rate is likely to move higher the next few months. That implies that the deficit this fiscal year will be higher than forecast.

Hourly earnings growth did not add much to consumer buying power. Hourly earnings were up $0.01 to $18.51 an hour, which is reported as a 0.1% increase. There have been hopes recently of a steadying in consumer spending leading to a stabilization in economic trends this fall or later this year, but the data does not provide much support for that argument.

These are still massive job losses and wage gains are minimal. Granted, payroll trends do lag overall economic trends, but unless businesses start to show a willingness to hire and not just to lay off fewer people, the market may be ahead of itself in looking at the recent economic data as harbingers of much better trends.

--Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com

 

[weatherweenie]

April's job losses were also revised to a loss of 699,000 from a loss of 663,000.

Having a seemingly reliable trading mechanism to go by does take a lot of stress out of decision making.

From Briefing.com this morning:

Stressed by Jobs, not Banks
Last Update: 08-May-09 08:54 ET

http://briefing.com/GeneralContent/...me=Investor&ArticleId=NS20090508085428PageOne

After yesterday's close, the government made public the results of its stress tests for 19 of the nation's largest financial institutions. It was found that 10 of the 19 banks needed to add an additional $74 billion more in common equity in order to have an adequate capital buffer to deal with a worse-than-forecast economic environment in the next two years.

These results produced a collective sigh of relief heard around the world, as the financial stocks this morning -- even a number of those that need to dilute shareholders further with capital raising activity -- are trading higher.

In brief, it has been the market's conclusion that these collective results are much less worrisome than had been thought weeks ago. Accordingly, it is now envisioning a new phase for the banks in which they start earning their way out of the TARP halfway house in which they now reside.

It doesn't matter at the moment if you don't share the market's same optimism about the banks. Their stocks are headed higher and they will carry the broader market along with them.

Ahead of the April employment report, the futures market was signaling an opening gain for the cash market on the order of 1.8%. In other words, the market was going to reclaim all of Thursday's lost ground and then some.

That indication has weakened a bit in the wake of the jobs report. The stock market is now indicated to open 1.4% higher.

The April decline in payrolls of 539,000 was a smaller decline than economists' median expectation of 600,000, but still represents bad economic news.

Part of the smaller decline is explained by a 72,000 jump in government payrolls, which hardly helps the wealth-producing private sector. There, widespread losses occurred, including a drop of 149,000 in manufacturing and 110,000 in construction. It is hard to derive a positive spin from the recent market argument that at least the rate of decline in economic data is slowing.

The 0.4 increase in the unemployment rate to 8.9% was in-line with expectations, but also noteworthy.

The 2009 Obama Administration budget (ended Sept. 30, 2009) called for a $1.7 trillion deficit. The economic assumptions assumed an 8.1% average unemployment rate for 2009. That looks like a very long stretch at this time, as the rate is likely to move higher the next few months. That implies that the deficit this fiscal year will be higher than forecast.

Hourly earnings growth did not add much to consumer buying power. Hourly earnings were up $0.01 to $18.51 an hour, which is reported as a 0.1% increase. There have been hopes recently of a steadying in consumer spending leading to a stabilization in economic trends this fall or later this year, but the data does not provide much support for that argument.

These are still massive job losses and wage gains are minimal. Granted, payroll trends do lag overall economic trends, but unless businesses start to show a willingness to hire and not just to lay off fewer people, the market may be ahead of itself in looking at the recent economic data as harbingers of much better trends.

--Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com

 

[coolhand]

So far, this morning's volume to the upside is greater than yesterday's volume to the downside.

 

[Birchtree]

I think I'll **** robo off again just for fun. The VIX has broken down to 31.96 which is off 1.48 for a 4.43% change. That should do it.

 

[coolhand]

I think I'll **** robo off again just for fun. The VIX has broken down to 31.96 which is off 1.48 for a 4.43% change. That should do it.

You're enjoying this way too much. :laugh:

 

[XL-entLady]

Good morning, my friend! I noticed that one of the SS ($TRIN) went back to the buy side this morning. That makes 2 and 5, I think, which takes us a step further back from pushing the big red sell button.

We'll see what the end of the day brings. Have a great weekend!

Lady

 

[WorkFE]

Now it's the 5 sentinals

 

[coolhand]

Good morning, my friend! I noticed that one of the SS ($TRIN) went back to the buy side this morning. That makes 2 and 5, I think, which takes us a step further back from pushing the big red sell button.

We'll see what the end of the day brings. Have a great weekend!

Lady

I wonder how many will be back in buy mode after today?

 

[JTH]

I wonder how many will be back in buy mode after today?

The press is in full BS mode and they are drunk on stupidity, forcing all of us to buy or be left behind. But in the end the only thing that matters is that price pays.

 

[coolhand]

The press is in full BS mode and they are drunk on stupidity, forcing all of us to buy or be left behind. But in the end the only thing that matters is that price pays.

This is a parabolic move. The masses were prepped for it by all the doom and gloom media reports and relentless selling pressure we experienced.

We just want to be on the right side of the trade. The heck with our personal feelings about what's going on. Right now the green shoots are the ones in our portfolio if your in stox.

More thoughts on this later.

 

[coolhand]

Big volume to the upside today. They made it real tough to believe in this rally, that's for sure.

 

[Mcqlives]

Coolhand,

The SS charts are very interesting. You made a great jump a few days ago when you caught on to them changing signals. I wish I had jumped in as well.

Anyone compare the SS past performances with Barney's system of dividing the month into 3 set investing sessions? Just curious if Barney's timing system matches up to the SS charts when it comes to set, short term, buy/sell time frames. If there is something there (I know, I know...wishful thinking!) it would fit our limited TSP transfer situation perfectly!

Mcq

 

[coolhand]

Coolhand,

The SS charts are very interesting. You made a great jump a few days ago when you caught on to them changing signals. I wish I had jumped in as well.

Anyone compare the SS past performances with Barney's system of dividing the month into 3 set investing sessions? Just curious if Barney's timing system matches up to the SS charts when it comes to set, short term, buy/sell time frames. If there is something there (I know, I know...wishful thinking!) it would fit our limited TSP transfer situation perfectly!

Mcq

I've heard of Barney's timing system, but I am not familiar with it. Honestly though, the SS by themselves, if they continue to perform like this, are all I need.

 

[coolhand]

Coolhand,

Anyone compare the SS past performances with Barney's system of dividing the month into 3 set investing sessions? Just curious if Barney's timing system matches up to the SS charts when it comes to set, short term, buy/sell time frames.
Mcq

When you said Barney's system, I thought it was a professional service of sorts. I didn't realize you were talking about someone's thread. :cheesy:

I'll have to check that out.

 

[Bullitt]

The press is in full BS mode and they are drunk on stupidity, forcing all of us to buy or be left behind. But in the end the only thing that matters is that price pays.

Start reading the newspaper starting with page 16 and that's where you'll find tomorrow's "news". The front page is yesterday's history. Everything you read on the front page has already been leaked to Goldman Sachs prior to it's being printed.

Re: Sentinels- I thought all 7 had to be on a sell or buy to register a signal. At the end of the day it shouldn't matter if 1 or 7 are on a buy/sell. I see IYB decided to front run his own system and took a hit today.

Mr. McQlives, I don't mean to rain on your parade, but there's no silver bullet.

The key to any system is following it. Marty Chenard of Stocktiming.com gave a buy signal in mid March but decided not to follow his own signal because he felt the market was being manipulated. Systems are supposed to take the emotions away but often times systems are trumped by emotions. Last I saw, he's still cash.

 

[coolhand]

The key to any system is following it. Marty Chenard of Stocktiming.com gave a buy signal in mid March but decided not to follow his own signal because he felt the market was being manipulated. Systems are supposed to take the emotions away but often times systems are trumped by emotions. Last I saw, he's still cash.

And that's why emotion plays such a huge role in the markets. Even when you have a grasp of what makes the market tick emotion can still, and often does, get in the way of prudent decision making.

Having a system, as Tom has said many time in the past, makes trading a lot easier.

But no system will get it right every time. And that's okay, if the odds still favor the system.

 

[WorkFE]

The only way to remove emotion is when the money don't matter, just the power of it. And for most of us that is not the case. Speaking for myself of course.
For those that manage your account, there's no emotion.

 

[coolhand]

Just posted a new blog that I'd recommend looking at. Some good info there.