coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

Too much supposition in the article, like most of the LSM, as to what the President might do, could do, if he did this/that...

Agree. Reality is much different than most have any idea.

 

[Whipsaw]

Too much supposition in the article, like most of the LSM, as to what the President might do, could do, if he did this/that...

 

[FAAM]

I think that was mentioned in the article, if I recall correctly (read it yesterday so already may have forgotten some). I think it said they were basically the same in essence but big differences: was jointly implementation path agreed by outgoing R-Prez & incoming D-prez (bipartisan, by committee of sorts) who agreed to not directly influence decisions/oversight but leave that with more independent FED & agreed to limited use/duration(s); I recall the magnitude & nature of actions overall were less than now; also didn't have factor of a highly questionable POTUS gaining undue influence, one who has demonstrated absolute self-focus to do anything for 'lection & ree-lection. scary.

 

[Mcqlives]

Coolhand,
I have been reading your posts since September and I finally logged in and created an account to say THANK YOU. I find your analysis to be invaluable and I have learned a lot from you (and others) over the past 6 months.
Mike

LOL...I ghosted around here for years before I joined. You got me beat on the intelligence level already

 

[weatherweenie]

How do these actions differ from the actions taken in 2008?

Sweet Jesus- all I needed to read is this;



That pretty much says it all. The entire dark money lords are going straight to the jugular and taking every ounce of value through looting inside the US Treasury.

I need a beer.


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

 

[coolhand]

Coolhand,
I have been reading your posts since September and I finally logged in and created an account to say THANK YOU. I find your analysis to be invaluable and I have learned a lot from you (and others) over the past 6 months.
Mike

Folks like you are the reason I am on this board. Thanks for the support!

 

[Beester15]

Coolhand,
I have been reading your posts since September and I finally logged in and created an account to say THANK YOU. I find your analysis to be invaluable and I have learned a lot from you (and others) over the past 6 months.
Mike

 

[James48843]

Sweet Jesus- all I needed to read is this;

. The Fed hired BlackRock Inc. to purchase these securities and handle the administration of the SPVs on behalf of the owner, the Treasury.

That pretty much says it all. The entire dark money lords are going straight to the jugular and taking every ounce of value through looting inside the US Treasury.

I need a beer.


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

….I don't think this is getting a lot of attention (link below), but something massive happened last week. In essence, the Federal Reserve was integrated into the Treasury. I'm not going to get into a debate on this, I only want to point out that it happened. This essentially means that the current administration now has direct control over the monetary system in this country. This is just an early indication of where we are going financially. If you have been listening to the X22 Report (others are also covering this), you will have a better understanding of what is coming. I've mentioned this on rare occasions in the past, but I doubt many believed me.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-cure-risks-being-worse-110052807.html

CoolHand, Thank You so very much for keeping this topic in the forefront!!! The article is very informative and is truly scary!

I wonder what the consequence will be???? If those bonds go bad, we as Taxpayers end up holding the liability. Also, if we keep printing money, doesn't that devalue the dollar further?? So wouldn't that cause massive inflation??? What about Treasuries? What would they be worth???? And as we saw even a couple weeks ago, even Gold did not look like much of a safe haven when the market was tanking (I was surprised by that).....gosh, should I invest more in TP?

But seriously, I would love to hear everyone's thoughts on what could happen and what the effect will be on the monies we have in TSP and in other investments. We spend so much time building our nest egg and I just don't know where our money is truly safe. :worried:!!

 

[coolhand]

Monday's action reversed Friday's losses to a large extent.




Momentum is still rising to the upside.



Breadth remains bearish, but it won't take a lot to flip it neutral.

This is the end of the quarter, so we'll have to see if anything changes to a large degree starting in April.

I have nothing to else to add this evening. I remain neutral.

 

[coolhand]

Every chart reader says a retest is due. The gap will get filled, but I don't see it happening any time soon.

TSP Talk sentiment survey was on Thursday, the fourth day in a row of a 19% rally. I'm sure that made some feel a bit more bullish than normal. Those that are unsure are waiting for that elusive 'pullback' so they can get on board. If it comes they'll sit on their hands and say it's going lower. If it doesn't come, they'll end up chasing prices higher.

I don't have a dog in metals but I know there are some gold bugs on this site. A major calls order went thru in SLV today: 25000 Jan'2021 @ $25. Somebody with deep pockets is bullish.

I've said before that anything can happen. There are reasons why I think a bottom may be in (a test would not change that), but I won't predict such without solid evidence, which is why I am currently neutral. I am looking for NAAIM to flip bullish. That may not happen quickly.

SLV is the paper market. I am not sure how relevant the paper market is right now, but it may still have some degree of relevance for optics purposes. The monetary foundation across the planet is the process of being changed. We will all benefit from that change in huge ways. Precious metal will be relevant once again!

 

[Bullitt]

Every chart reader says a retest is due. The gap will get filled, but I don't see it happening any time soon.

TSP Talk sentiment survey was on Thursday, the fourth day in a row of a 19% rally. I'm sure that made some feel a bit more bullish than normal. Those that are unsure are waiting for that elusive 'pullback' so they can get on board. If it comes they'll sit on their hands and say it's going lower. If it doesn't come, they'll end up chasing prices higher.

I don't have a dog in metals but I know there are some gold bugs on this site. A major calls order went thru in SLV today: 25000 Jan'2021 @ $25. Somebody with deep pockets is bullish.

 

[shitepoke]

Coolhand...what a thorough analysis, and always appreciate the laymen terms. The risk assessment is my favorite as it always stresses that the moves that we do are ours alone...I look forward to the next post always and am sure a lot of folks do. Good luck with the C-Fund move and hope there is a blastoff soon.
EJJ

 

[coolhand]

Despite Friday's decline, the bulls had a huge week last week as gains with in the double digits.




We might just have a bull flag forming on the charts, but there is still a long way to go as far as market gains are concerned.



Breadth remains bearish, but it's improving, just like the stock charts.

We saw NAAIM back off their shorts this past Thursday, but remain on the bearish side. I said that this inferred that the downside was likely limited. Since the bulls are not clamoring to get back in (on that survey), I think the upside may be limited too. But that doesn't mean there isn't some upside left in the short term.

The TSP Talk survey showed many have flipped from bearish to bullish, but the survey itself is neutral.

I don't think this is getting a lot of attention (link below), but something massive happened last week. In essence, the Federal Reserve was integrated into the Treasury. I'm not going to get into a debate on this, I only want to point out that it happened. This essentially means that the current administration now has direct control over the monetary system in this country. This is just an early indication of where we are going financially. If you have been listening to the X22 Report (others are also covering this), you will have a better understanding of what is coming. I've mentioned this on rare occasions in the past, but I doubt many believed me.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-cure-risks-being-worse-110052807.html

I remain neutral, but I am beginning to think a bottom may be in. I don't think it's off to the races, however, though a bias higher is not out of the question. But this still remains to be seen. This is a difficult market to gauge with so many levers being pulled.

 

[coolhand]

The market was up big again today. It's really starting to look like a low may be in.




A sizable chunk of losses have been retraced. Strength and momentum look good.



Breadth is looking good in the short term too. It's still technically bearish though.

As I posted earlier in the day, NAAIM came in bearish again (not as bearish as last week), but reduced their short exposure. The fact that they are not embracing the rally still gives me pause, but I do think the worst may be over. That's just an educated opinion and I could be wrong. The main take away is that the smart money remains very wary.

I am going neutral from my previous bearish stance. If breadth flips positive, that would be a big plus for the bulls, but the news could still trigger more volatility.

 

[Mcqlives]

The latest NAAIM sentiment reading remains bearish, but they have reduced their short exposure. This tells me that the market is not out of the woods, but the downside may now be limited.

You are on it! That reading is barely out and you are posting! Thanks!!!

 

[coolhand]

The latest NAAIM sentiment reading remains bearish, but they have reduced their short exposure. This tells me that the market is not out of the woods, but the downside may now be limited.

 

[coolhand]

The market made it 2 in a row today, but a late day swoon erased a sizable portion of gains. That swoon was due to yet another hold up of the stimulus package that Congress is "rushing" to get to the people. I won't add any personal observations; you probably have your own.




While the charts improved, that late day sell-off could be a precursor to more selling if that package isn't signed today. Price is still way below the 50 and 200 dma's.



Breadth has also looked good the past 2 days, but it is still not technically bullish.

With volatility as high as it is, it would be a gamble to take either side of the trade here.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. I remain bearish, but if the market takes off on good news tomorrow I'll probably flip neutral. We'll see what the smart money thinks soon.

 

[coolhand]

Cool- what say NAAIM...also what happened to the days when equities were up when bonds were down and vice versa...back in the days when IT was slayin' 30 plus %...i say here first that with the volatility we currently have IT slays it for 30 percent again...

Anything can happen. NAAIM was very bearish last Thursday, but we don't get a fresh read till Thursday again. The market can change between readings and NAAIM won't wait for their survey to make changes to their respective portfolios (should they feel it's necessary). I do think the market soars again, but I am not expecting it until next month (maybe). I have to play this day by day because significant events are occurring daily.

 

[shitepoke]

Cool- what say NAAIM...also what happened to the days when equities were up when bonds were down and vice versa...back in the days when IT was slayin' 30 plus %...i say here first that with the volatility we currently have IT slays it for 30 percent again...