coolhand's Account Talk

1965Vintage said:
In my opinion, dumb money is buying now
Look at the max chart for the SPY. I see 211 in the next 3 to 6 months. I wouldn't touch this market with a 60' pole. All signs point to huge sell off.

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I agree. I've been G fund for over a year. Many want to try to continue making gains as long as this bull is alive, but risk is off the charts.
 
The bulls took yet another pounding on Tuesday. Price on the S&P has closed back below its 50 dma, while the DWCPF closed at a lower low, but only by hair. The DWCPF has tested this area several times over the past 2 months. Is this support or is price determined to break it? That is the big question.

Along with the technical damage that remains in evidence on the charts, breadth has flipped bearish once more. But, it's fallen enough to look for another reversal.

TRINQ (Nasdaq) is bullish this evening. TRIN (NYSE) is neutral.

I don't know why, but the options data is not updating on stockcharts. The OEX has not updated since last Friday and the CBOE has not updated since yesterday. I don't know why I did not notice the OEX sooner, but it could be that there is a technical glitch on the website. In other words, it may have been updated and then for some reason reverted to a previous date. I am not sure.

So the market remains vulnerable to selling pressure. So far, it hasn't gotten super ugly and that might be telling us something. The fact that NAAIM still has plenty of bulls despite being neutral overall does suggest there may some measure of floor under the market. I don't know if we've found it yet or not. I will be interested in where NAAIM stands this week, but we won't know for another 2 days.

There is no shortage of drama in the political sphere and that is not helping. But markets are often perverse. They can defy expectations. We're all familiar with that reality.

We'll just have to see if support holds at this point.
 
The bulls gave back some gains today, but losses were contained. The S&P 500 is still testing its 50 dma and the DWCPF is testing its 200 dma. That's the current battleground.

The options have not posted. Breadth dipped and is now neutral. Most other indicators are looking neutral as well.

I am still leaning bullish for the week, but I am not overly bullish. As I've said recently, until NAAIM gets more bullish, we have to temper bullish expectations. I think the back and forth battle will continue for the time being.
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NwP3wes4M8

I’m with you CH. This newbie sure is feeling it. Thanks again every day for your expertise and insight.
 
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The bulls put together a second day of gains on Friday, which significantly made up losses earlier in the week, but did not entirely erase them. Still, it's a victory when considering where the indicators that I follow are currently sitting.

Price on the S&P closed back over its 50 dma, while the price on the DWCPF closed back over its 200 dma. Certainly, that's at least somewhat encouraging.

More importantly in my opinion, breadth flipped back to a positive condition.

The options are leaning bullish for Monday. NAAIM is neutral. TSP Talk came in decidedly bullish. We don't get too beared up anymore, but we are bearish now (that's bullish).

I like what I am seeing from a bullish perspective. I am cautiously optimistic that a bottom may be in. But until NAAIM takes a more bullish stance, we have to temper upside expectations. I am anticipating a positive week.
 
The selling continued early on today, but the bulls managed to turn it around to post moderate gains by the close. But it didn't change the trend. It's only a bounce to this point.
The technical indicators did not change that much. Breadth remains negative, though it did turn up. TRINQ is bullish this evening.

The CBOE looks bullish, while the OEX is neutral. NAAIM got more bearish, but remains neutral. It appears the bears among them got more short, while the bulls are holding tight to long positions. This tells me volatility will continue.

I don't think the market falls apart at this time, but that doesn't mean we can't probe lower. I also don't think an extended rally is in the cards either.
 
My recently minted bearish disposition was on target. Wednesday's action was ugly. Price on the S&P plunged and closed well under its 50 dma. Price on the DWCPF is currently testing its previous lows.

Breadth plunged deeper as well. In the past, it would bounce soon after plunging to the extent that is has right now. Is a bottom near? Hold that thought.

The OEX and CBOE are neutral. We already know that NAAIM was neutral as of last week.

I watch no shortage of videos regarding market action. I don't normally comment on it, but the past few days I am hearing several market managers who are quite concerned with the Repo's the CB is currently deploying. This is being interpreted as something to be concerned about. It seems to be indicating that the banks are in trouble. Many charts look similar to those of past market crashes. The current political climate certainly supports this possibility as well. I am not predicting such, but I need to point it out. It is almost impossible to predict exactly when a market may crash given that smoke and mirrors are tools of their trade. I recommend considering how much risk you really want to take in such a market.

If this market is going to bottom, it needs to bottom soon. There is another support area at the June lows, but we could blow through that quickly if panic set in.

Consider how you would react should price begin to fall in earnest. Again, I am not saying that this is imminent because I cannot predict an event like this, but you may not have a lot of time to react should things really start to fall apart.

I am looking for a bounce. I am guessing that the powers that be may not be interested in a deep plunge at this time, but I could be wrong.

Let's see where NAAIM stands tomorrow. That may help.
 
Yesterday, I said I didn't have a lot to go on as to what to expect on Tuesday, but I thought we might get some upside follow through. We did get it, but it lasted less than an hour. And the bottom fell out as price on the S&P closed under its 50 dma and the DWCPF below its 200 dma. The lows have not been tested, but they might. The market has been trending lower and now technical damage is more in evidence. It may be test that will be short lived, but I am not comfortable with that possibility given NAAIM's neutral stance. I think the bears may continue to press their advantage; especially since breadth flipped negative.

Now, as the indicators get more negative a reversal does become more likely, but it's hardly something we can use with precision.

The options are leaning a bit bearish this evening. I am changing my stance from neutral to modestly bearish. I have a feeling the bulls may get punished a bit more before at least a short term bottom gets put in.
 
This indicators are not telling me a whole lot this evening. We got the bounce I expected for Monday, but it was not enough to pull the DWCPF back over the 50 dma. That's not a major problem as long as price on the S&P can remain above its 50 dma.

Breadth remains bullish. The options remain neutral. All other surveys I follow are also neutral.

I have no hints what may happen on Tuesday, though futures are up. We may get some upside follow through. I remain neutral.
 
Weakness continued on Friday, which helped the S&P 500 and DWCPF finish with losses on the week. Price on the S&P is still above its 50 dma, but it's getting closer to that support level. Price on the DWCPF fell well under its 50 dma and is now not far from testing its 200 dma.

The market has fallen enough now to at least look for some degree of a rebound.

Breadth remains bullish, believe it or not. I note that TRINQ closed high on Friday, which suggests the NAZ may see a bounce. If so, it may drag the rest of the market with it.

The options are neutral. TSP is more bullish, but neutral still. NAAIM is neutral.

So, I'm looking for some measure of a bounce on the Monday. Maybe the S&P tests its 50 dma and reverses. The DWCPF may test its 200 dma at the same time. That's not a prediction; just a possibility. Overall, I am neutral for the week.
 
The slug fest continued today between the bulls and bears as price reversed once more. Price on the DWCPF closed just under its 50 dma, while the S&P remains above it.

Overall, there wasn't much change from a technical perspective. Breadth remains bullish, but is back to moving sideways again.

The options look a bit bullish this evening. NAAIM got less bullish and is now back to a neutral stance. They are wary. That tells me that the action we've been getting of late is likely to continue. I'm modestly bullish for Friday.
 
After spiking lower on Tuesday, stocks rebounded smartly, though did not retrace all losses. The rebound did push price on the DWCPF back over its 50 dma, which is at least somewhat encouraging for the bulls; especially given that the S&P 500 has remained above above it. In other words, the S&P could be viewed as a kind of anchor for stocks overall given small caps tend to be more volatile.

So while some damage was done on Tuesday, the market did recover to some extent. Also, breadth has remained bullish throughout. That's a big plus for the bulls.

This evening, the options are looking neutral once more. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

I still see no clear path for direction in the short term. Headlines are a contributing factor right now, but I remain bullish beyond the shorter term.
 
Well, things are getting interesting (disturbing?) in the political sphere and that was one of the reasons (money pumping is another) for today's shot lower. I suspect we might want to buckle up as there isn't a day that goes by anymore where signs of battle are not seen. I won't elaborate on that point; most of you have heard me mention my longer term concerns before (check out X22 Report).

Setting that aside, both the S&P 500 and the DWCPF fell, with the S&P 500 remaining above its key 50 dma, while the DWCPF closed under it.

Breadth fell too, but it still remains in a bullish stance.

I also note that crypto got slammed today, while precious metal rose.

Let's see what happens on Wednesday. The indicators are mostly neutral right now, though the short term is bearish.

The options look largely neutral.
 
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