coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

Since I no longer have an account at Stockcharts, I'm using freecharts (as best I can). It's not the same, but it will work.

The bulls eked out more gains today. The DWCPF has still not pushed past its 50 dma. Today's action did have a toppy feel to it.

This evening, the options are looking neutral. NAAIM is neutral from last week.TSP Talk is actually a bit bearish given the neutral reading from NAAIM. In other words, we're bullish and NAAIM is neutral. I don't think we're as much smart money as NAAIM is. Just sayin'.

Breadth is still bullish.

I think the market has something to prove as far as how strong this bull is. The DWCPF has lagged, which is dampens bullish sentiment (generally). I am not comfortable with sentiment. I don't think it favors bulls or bears. I suspect we'll see another turn lower before long, but it doesn't have to be a big drop. For now, the bulls are still in control, but not comfortably so.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls had a good week last week with all 3 TSP stocks funds closing with more than 1% gains. The S fund is lagging, however.




Fridays the S&P 500 eke out another gain, but price is still well short of the July high. The DWCPF has yet to break above its 50 dma, but at least it remains above the 200 dma. Momentum continues to rise for now.

My intermediate term system remains positive as does breadth. The OEX is neutral, while the CBOE is bullish. NAAIM is neutral.

It is still a mixed picture with large caps outperforming smaller and mids. Sentiment is largely neutral and my technical indicators look okay for the most part.

I have to give the nod to the bulls since they have the momentum and breadth is supportive. I am not sure how much more upside the market can give us and NAAIM is not the bullish survey it once was. They are obviously hedging their bets, which I would take as a caution flag. Small caps are also hinting of possible difficulty with the upside down the road.

 

[coolhand]

Breakout?




Maybe. But not all of my indicators agree with that. We can clearly see that price on the S&P 500 decisively broke through resistance at the 50 dma. But it still has more resistance overhead until it can clear its previous highs (for more than 3 days or so). Price on the DWCPF broke to the upside, but did not quite test its 50 dma; though it came close. It is at its highest level in about a month. Volume was a bit higher on the action and momentum is rising.

Breadth on the NYSE continued to rise and is making fresh all-time highs. I know that sounds bullish, and it is to a point, but we have to look at other indicators for confirmation.

Looking at sentiment, the OEX is neutral, while the CBOE is bullish. NAAIM did not change much and remains neutral. Because they still have the caution flag out, I can't get overly bullish. That's a key sentiment reading that suggests we may not be on the way to new highs, though it could be wrong. Time will tell. For now, I would temper bullish expectations. If price keeps rising in the short term, that will help firm up the bullish argument.

I am modestly bullish now on the S&P breakout and rising breadth.

 

[wahinepio]

Would you consider staying. I run here every day. Thank you.

 

[pmaloney]

Definitely agree with [FONT=Verdana,Arial,Tahoma,Calibri,Geneva,sans-serif]mcqlives. Occasionally I look at your charts but I read your posts because I appreciate your opinion, knowledge and shared values. Stay in touch. Keep the Big Berkey clean and ready. Glad you missed the worst of Dorian. :smile:[/FONT]

 

[Mcqlives]

now may be a good time to run out of charts...news threw everything out the window...China announced trade talks are on for october and futures are launching.

Regardless, PLEASE keep posting comments! Always get some onsite.

 

[coolhand]

Price on the S&P 500 rallied back near resistance at the 50 dma today.




The DWCPF rallied as well, but remains closer to support rather than resistance.

My intermediate term system remains positive. Breadth actually broke out higher today, but until price is back at its highs I can't get too excited about that. But we do want to see breadth doing what it's doing.

This evening, the options are neutral. NAAIM reports in the morning.

I continue to remain neutral as the up/down action continues. Sentiment is on the neural side as well (the surveys I follow).

Aside from my daily technical narrative, I continue to be concerned about the market in general. Precious metal, and especially silver right now, is signaling problems under the hood. The character of the market can change quickly and it is not easy to predict with any kind of surgical precision.

This may be the last week I have charts to post. My subscription runs out this month and I think it's sooner rather than later.

 

[coolhand]

The post holiday action was negative. Silver was up significantly. Gold was up too. Bitcoin appears to be have bottomed and is moving back up again.




Price on the S&P 500 was rejected at the 50 dma, but remains well above the 200 dma. The DWCPF is not doing as well and is currently testing its 200 dma once again.

Not all of my charts have updated this evening, but I've got enough current data anyway. Breadth remains positive, but is tracking sideways. My intermediate term system remains positive, but is already under attack (it just flipped positive late last week).

The options are modestly bullish this evening, which doesn't mean much given the overall neutral reading of several surveys we got to end last week.

It appears the battle will continue over control of price. I'm neutral for tomorrow, but we may bounce after Tuesday's selling.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls managed to hold on to weekly gains last week as Friday's action closed near the flat line.




No breakouts yet, but we can see that price is very close to testing the 50 dma on the S&P. We do need to see more bullish interest in the Completion Index if a breakout is going to occur. The flip side, is that we may head back down again as resistance rejects price.

Interestingly, my intermediate term system flipped positive on Friday. Breadth is positive and has been moving higher of late. Volume has favored the bulls.

The options closed neutral for Tuesday (Monday being a Holiday). Our TSP Talk sentiment survey is also neutral. NAAIM is neutral.

Overall, the market seems to be waiting for something to latch onto as there are plenty of fence sitters. While my IT system, breadth, and volume are bullish, the charts have yet to give us evidence of a breakout. Perhaps that's why sentiment is neutral. Let's see how the post Holiday action unfolds; especially as Dorian slowly reveals its true path.

 

[Scout333]

Cool Hope everything goes well for you during Dorian! Stay safe! Hopefully it spins out into the Atlantic and disappears. Best of luck to you and yours!
Scout

 

[coolhand]

It's amazing how quickly the path of this storm is changing. Computer models are now predicting it will turn North even sooner (and maybe out to sea).

 

[coolhand]

If you live in Georgia or the Carolinas, hurricane risk is now elevated. Florida is still impacted even if it doesn't make landfall. This storm looks to be maximizing its potential to affect as many as possible given its current projected path.

 

[1965Vintage]

Good luck to you Coolhand!
In my part of the world (Red State) we have lots of flooding along the rivers.
Thing is, if you love where you live, you deal with the floods/ hurricanes.
Me.... I'm moving to the mountains when I retire!

Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

 

[coolhand]

Sorry I didn't realize how bad it was until I saw the news.

It's not a problem. We've been through a number of them already, but this one could be the worst. They are now saying that it's possible the storm works its way up the coast and just rakes us from offshore, but that remains to be seen.

 

[Bquat]

Sorry I didn't realize how bad it was until I saw the news.

 

[Bquat]

Okay. Just as long as you can get back on line right after Labor Day.:cheesy: Ft Walton is nice for Labor Day weekend.

 

[coolhand]

It really feels like the market is playing to the news media. Tariff news mostly. Good news from Washington the market is up, bad news the market is down. Hong Kong is going to be a player as well. With the long weekend and the Dorian hitting Florida........

With respect to Dorian, there is a good chance I'm without power at some point after this storm makes landfall. Maybe for a few days. :worried:

 

[nasa1974]

Futures are up enough early this morning that I would venture to anticipate the S&P tests its 50 dma today. Are we soon to break out of the trading range over the days ahead? It's too soon to know of course, but it's certainly something to keep an eye on.

It really feels like the market is playing to the news media. Tariff news mostly. Good news from Washington the market is up, bad news the market is down. Hong Kong is going to be a player as well. With the long weekend and the Dorian hitting Florida........

 

[coolhand]

Futures are up enough early this morning that I would venture to anticipate the S&P tests its 50 dma today. Are we soon to break out of the trading range over the days ahead? It's too soon to know of course, but it's certainly something to keep an eye on.

 

[coolhand]

Well, you can't be sure what may happen on any given day in this wacky market. I was leaning bearish on the options market reading, but we got a shot to the upside instead. I'm sure you'll take it. :smile:




So, price on the S&P is back in its upper trading range (resistance) at the close. Price easily cleared and closed above the 200 dma on the DWCPF. Momentum is turning up again. But we're still in the trading range on both charts. Breadth spiked higher today and back at the upper end of range. Volume is bullish on the NYSE at the moment.

The options are neutral this evening. NAAIM backed off their moderately bullish stance a bit and are now about neutral.

I just don't have anything to point to that might give me a clue how long this market bounces around. NAAIM's reading leads me to believe we have more up/down action coming. Friday looks neutral. The TSP stock funds are currently sporting gains for the week. Hopefully, the bulls can close out the week and keep those gains.