coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

Futures are up big, so my expectation that the rally will extend from Friday looks good (so far). But we'll have to see how much the bears fight back. We also have to watch resistance at the 50 dma.

 

[coolhand]

While the TSP stock funds were all down for the week, the bulls made a stand on Friday and bounced the market hard.




The bounce pushed price on the DWCPF back over the 200 dma. The S&P never challenged its own 200 dma. Momentum bounced, but has yet to turn up convincingly. Hopefully, price will continue to rally for another test at resistance, which is the 50 dma.

Breadth turned positive on Friday's shot to the upside. I note that TRIN closed at a very low level, which is bearish for Monday. Volume heavily favored the bulls on Friday, so Friday's rally just might have legs.

The OEX is now modestly bullish. The CBOE is neutral. NAAIM was neutral. TSP Talk came in decidedly bearish, which is bullish. Volatility remains a challenge in picking buy and sell points.

I am leaning toward the rally continuing on the Monday given the bullish volume and breadth flipping positive. I think sentiment may support more upside as well. I also think the indicators may have gotten sufficiently bearish to mark a low (may). But as I noted above, there are bearish aspects in play too.

So, we'll see how it goes next week. The bulls need to keep the pressure on and punch through the 50 dma. We're still well under that level.

 

[coolhand]

Given the way futures were acting last night and into the open today, I thought we were in for some fireworks. And while there was some volatility, price didn't travel in either direction all that far (in comparison to the futures market). We ended up with a mixed close.




Volume remains elevated (in favor of the bears). Momentum is also in the bear's favor. Price on the DWCPF remains below its 200 dma, but above it on the S&P. The relatively contained action may be suggestive of a bottom process that may have begun, but I would not hang my hat on that.

TRIN was very high yesterday, which suggested a reversal. The fact that all we got was an up/down battle tells me the bears still have the upper paw. Breadth was up marginally, but remains negative.

This evening, the OEX is neutral again. And the CBOE is bearish again. NAAIM posted later today than usual, but at least we got the data. It didn't change much. The bears are still short, but they tempered their exposure. The bulls remain largely long. The overall reading is neutral.

Taken as whole, the indicators tell me to look for more of the same up/down battles between the bulls and bears. I am neutral. We do need to keep an eye on the 200 dma on the S&P 500. That has to hold or we could see another leg down.

 

[userque]

Look at it this way; over the years, there were many instances of folks joining the TSP Talk board and getting into debates with market timers that you can't time the market. There were times when it was over-the-top because some folks couldn't simply move on to something else. Each side was convinced they were right. Now, I don't see as much banter along these lines as I used to, but it was not an unusual topic. And it didn't matter whether it was sentiment, charting, stars, tea leaves, etc.

The claim you read on the NAAIM site as well as the other site referenced above is their personal opinion. Maybe they don't know how to actually use the data for timing because they don't try to time the market. Mark Young, who has a professional trading website and is a Wall Street type trader uses NAAIM along with most other surveys. My own personal use of it has had very good results and I've been demonstrating that here in my thread for the last couple of years at least.

No one piece of market information can be used in isolation and that includes NAAIM. I use it with the other tools to get a more rounded perspective.

I hope this helps.

I appreciate the civil response!

 

[coolhand]

FINE PRINT:
Last time I posted here, I was rudely accused of being "closed minded" simply because I asked (apparently) difficult questions regarding some extraordinary claims being made here.

Being a Christian, I forgave. But I've kept my distance as some are more sensitive than others.

But for the sake of others, I'll again dip my toe in the water to offer ... an option. I am open for debate. "Iron sharpens iron." We can learn; and/or agree to disagree. No need for hostility. It's just my opinion, not the end of the world.

In other words, I come in peace. Whew (out of breath) ... that said:

NAAIM says regarding the NAAIM Index:
"It is important to recognize that the NAAIM Exposure Index is not predictive in nature and is of little value in attempting to determine what the stock market will do in the future."
https://www.naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/

cxoadvisory.com says regarding the NAAIM Index:
"In other words, the index offers no information about stock market return the next week."
"In summary, evidence from simple tests on NAAIM survey data offers little support for belief that active investment managers as a group successfully time the U.S. stock market over the near term, but they may add some value by predicting stock market volatility."
https://www.cxoadvisory.com/sentiment-indicators/investment-managers-and-market-timing/

Look at it this way; over the years, there were many instances of folks joining the TSP Talk board and getting into debates with market timers that you can't time the market. There were times when it was over-the-top because some folks couldn't simply move on to something else. Each side was convinced they were right. Now, I don't see as much banter along these lines as I used to, but it was not an unusual topic. And it didn't matter whether it was sentiment, charting, stars, tea leaves, etc.

The claim you read on the NAAIM site as well as the other site referenced above is their personal opinion. Maybe they don't know how to actually use the data for timing because they don't try to time the market. Mark Young, who has a professional trading website and is a Wall Street type trader uses NAAIM along with most other surveys. My own personal use of it has had very good results and I've been demonstrating that here in my thread for the last couple of years at least.

No one piece of market information can be used in isolation and that includes NAAIM. I use it with the other tools to get a more rounded perspective.

I hope this helps.

 

[userque]

Its there...same as last week...had a number of consecutive 20s bull readings in May before market turned...so it ain't what it used to be.

FINE PRINT:
Last time I posted here, I was rudely accused of being "closed minded" simply because I asked (apparently) difficult questions regarding some extraordinary claims being made here.

Being a Christian, I forgave. But I've kept my distance as some are more sensitive than others.

But for the sake of others, I'll again dip my toe in the water to offer ... an option. I am open for debate. "Iron sharpens iron." We can learn; and/or agree to disagree. No need for hostility. It's just my opinion, not the end of the world.

In other words, I come in peace. Whew (out of breath) ... that said:

NAAIM says regarding the NAAIM Index:
"It is important to recognize that the NAAIM Exposure Index is not predictive in nature and is of little value in attempting to determine what the stock market will do in the future."
https://www.naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/

cxoadvisory.com says regarding the NAAIM Index:
"In other words, the index offers no information about stock market return the next week."
"In summary, evidence from simple tests on NAAIM survey data offers little support for belief that active investment managers as a group successfully time the U.S. stock market over the near term, but they may add some value by predicting stock market volatility."
https://www.cxoadvisory.com/sentiment-indicators/investment-managers-and-market-timing/

 

[amoeba]

Its there...same as last week...had a number of consecutive 20s bull readings in May before market turned...so it ain't what it used to be.

 

[coolhand]

NAAIM still hasn't posted. I'm beginning to wonder if we'll get a reading today.

 

[coolhand]

The volatility in the futures market is really something. It's turned again and now were back up.

 

[coolhand]

Futures were up fairly well overnight, but over the past hour or 2 they've plunged. It is looking like were heading lower at the open and maybe in a big way if futures keeping building to the downside. NAAIM comes out late in the morning. This next drop will likely shake some bulls loose. Maybe that's at least part of the reason for the pressure, but I am certain that it's geopolitical/financial more than anything else. If NAAIM comes in bearish it may be a signal, but I need to see the survey before I can read the tea leaves.

 

[PessOptimist]

Thank you coolhand. I appreciate your posts.

PO

 

[coolhand]

I sure didn't see today's dump coming. We got the test of the previous lows




Both charts show price closing at a lower low. The S&P remains above its 200 dma, but not the DWCPF. Are they going to save it? Volume was elevated and momentum is heading lower.

TRIN closed at a very high level, which suggests another bounce. Breadth remains negative. The OEX remains neutral and the CBOE remains bearish.

I still think the market turns back up, but the news headlines sure don't make me comfortable. Something may happen with China, which may be used as a narrative to turn the market back up. I'm guessing on that, but POTUS is suggesting a private meeting with Xi. On the other hand, there is a lot of finger pointing at the Fed right now, which dovetails with the sell-offs. Trying to guess what actually happens and when is not very discernable. NAAIM wasn't overly bearish last week, though they did back off their bullishness.

Let's see where NAAIM sits tomorrow. Right now, the bears appear to have the upper hand, but this is still a bull market until it's not.

 

[BooDog]

This video is an excellent presentation of the financial markets. Pay particular attention to what Jim Sinclair says in the latter half of the video when he points out his family crest. Research him. He's someone you want to pay attention to. He has a website https://www.jsmineset.com/about/.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMCu9GWpgzg&feature=youtu.be

These 13 Families Rule the World: The Shadow Forces Behind the NWO | Humans Are Free

Excellent. Passing this on coolhand.

 

[coolhand]

This video is an excellent presentation of the financial markets. Pay particular attention to what Jim Sinclair says in the latter half of the video when he points out his family crest. Research him. He's someone you want to pay attention to. He has a website https://www.jsmineset.com/about/.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMCu9GWpgzg&feature=youtu.be

These 13 Families Rule the World: The Shadow Forces Behind the NWO | Humans Are Free

 

[ToddB]

Thanks Coolhand I really appreciate your narratives and insights!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[coolhand]

We got the bounce and it was a good one.




I thought we might see some attempt to counter any rally and price did peak around 1030, fell modestly lower and then went largely sideways into the close. Notice that price was reject at the 50 dma on the S&P 500. We'll have to see if the bulls have anything left in the short term for another retest.

Looking at the indicators, breadth is now neutral, which is an improvement over yesterday when it was negative.

The OEX is neutral again and the CBOE is bearish again. My indicators are not leaning in either direction right now, so things could get choppy for a bit. I am neutral for Wednesday and sill think the bulls might close the week in the green.

 

[coolhand]

The bears pinned another hurt on the bulls to start the new week. We now have to entertain the possibility that a retest of the lows may occur.




The S&P is holding up better than the DWCPF, but both sold down. Once again, we need to watch the 200 dma for support should the bears have the ability to press their short term advantage.

I note that while my intermediate term system remains negative, TRIN and TRINQ both point to a bounce for Tuesday, but how much of one we can expect I don't know. Breadth remains negative.

The OEX is neutral and the CBOE is bearish. If I don't use the CBOE as a contrarian indicator than it's bearish at face value. They have tended to be right often enough to not bet against them too often.

So I have mixed indicators heading into Tuesday. I see a bounce as a real possibility, but it may not hold. Or, we sell down early and bounce later in the session.

 

[coolhand]

Friday's market action saw the bears drive price back below the 50 dma on both the S&P 500 and DWCPF. Has the 50 dma now become resistance? Maybe in the short term, but I don't think the bulls are done. This is still a bull market, after all.

For the week, all 3 TSP stock funds closed lower, but the difference in closing price from Monday to Friday was significant. In other words, the bulls retraced the bulk of losses over the course of the week and are now poised to retake the 50 dma if they can keep the pressure on.




For some reason, the charts on the stockcharts website are not loading. I downloaded the above charts on Friday when I wasn't having that problem. But I did look at all the charts Friday, so I'll have to go by memory here.

The options were neutral (CBOE, OEX). TSP Talk was relatively unchanged and is neutral (we're leaning bullish). NAAIM remains largely bullish, though the bears among them put on some shorts, so expect continued volatility. Cumulative breadth flipped negative again after Friday's reversal. The selling wasn't benign, there was volume behind it. That is another indication to expect more volatility.

Overall, I suspect the bulls are going to make it very difficult for the bears to have their way with the market. And I think the bears will ultimately get worn down as the bull comes back to life. NAAIM's overall positioning supports this perspective. I am not sure how the new week will end, but I am siding with the bulls.

 

[coolhand]

That 48% bear reading should make this a screaming buy, especially if it opens down Monday, shouldn't it? I have settled cash, IFTs, itching to get back in.

Sentiment is not what it used to be. That's why I focus on select surveys. I abandoned AAII more than a year ago because I no longer saw any correlation to the markets. Even TSP Talk's survey is not as useful as it used to be. I still post it, but I can't use it in isolation. The options don't work as well as they once did either. In fact, I find that the dumb money (CBOE) is more often aligned with market direction than not. In other words, it shouldn't be used as a contrarian indicator anymore. These I my observations of the past few years. The only survey I still place significant stock (pun intended) in is NAAIM, which I have spoken of many times in my daily postings. When I post my weekend thoughts I'll see where I stand overall as we head into the new week.

 

[amoeba]

That 48% bear reading should make this a screaming buy, especially if it opens down Monday, shouldn't it? I have settled cash, IFTs, itching to get back in.