coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

After today's launch, I guess we now know what direction the market wants to go.




Both charts show price closing above their respective 50 dma. Momentum has quickly turned up.

Cumulative breadth has flipped positive. My intermediate term system remains negative, but it's improving.

The OEX and CBOE are both neutral. NAAIM was an interesting ready. The bulls among them didn't flinch from their long positions, but the bears have placed some shorts. The reading is bullish at face value.

Futures are pointing much lower this evening, but it's difficult to trust them as momentum has shifted to the upside. Still, today's rally may very well spawn a pullback. Let's see if the 50 dma can hold.

 

[Cactus]

If we weren't limited in our moves I'm thinking many here would be making bank big time with this volatility.

You're right. That is why the limits were imposed on us in 2008. They can't have us making money now, can they?

 

[BooDog]

"I am leaning bearish for Thursday, though I am not particularly bearish overall. I am actually neutral until the market reveals more evidence of its intent to either resume a downside push or begin a climb to the upside. We do have some support below. Now we need to see if there is resistance above. Certainly, the 50 dma might be if price manages to test it."

This is push me pull me time. I was impressed the bulls almost closed the DJIA green yesterday and the SPY and NASDAQ actually pulled it off. We're certainly not out of the woods yet. Still have a few weeks of summertime volatility. Tie that with banks cutting basis points, the recent fed move and the looming trade meeting with China. And of course the tweets going one way and China being more willing to openly manipulate.
As seen in the market commentary https://www.tsptalk.com/comments.php there were some major charts showing the lows held for support. Make no mistake, some were rattled imo, and it doesn't take that much to put fear into the markets these days imo. But that also brings opportunity. I'm neutral to slightly bullish going into September. Still have one move left for August though so if I'm wrong and support does break, I'm ready.

If we weren't limited in our moves I'm thinking many here would be making bank big time with this volatility.

 

[coolhand]

The market opened significantly lower today, but it wasn't long before the bulls began to claw back the losses over the balance of the trading session.




Both charts actually closed positive today. That's a bullish sign, but I wouldn't be complacent given the underlying global battle being waged over financial control of the markets. Gold and silver are soaring. Crypto (I follow Bitcoin primarily) is also holding up well as money is looking for safer havens. That doesn't' necessarily mean the bull is over (though it might). If this was a "V" bottom, I'd have expected a more solid upside push. Instead we are seeing significant volatility. But a bottom may be in. We just have to wait and see how it plays out.

Breadth remains negative, but it's steady. I note that TRINQ is low this evening, which could mean another bout of selling tomorrow. The OEX is modestly bearish too. But the CBOE remains on the bullish side.

I am leaning bearish for Thursday, though I am not particularly bearish overall. I am actually neutral until the market reveals more evidence of its intent to either resume a downside push or begin a climb to the upside. We do have some support below. Now we need to see if there is resistance above. Certainly, the 50 dma might be if price manages to test it.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. That should be interesting given how bullish they were last week before being ambushed.

 

[Whipsaw]

I almost went in partial today, watching the action, either a bottom forming or a pause on the way down.

 

[BooDog]

2750 would be in the area of horizontal support from the June low, but 2825 has held twice (so far) and we have the 200 dma below that, which is just above the rising 200 dma (just under 2800). I'm not favoring 2750 at the moment, but it is in play.

I take it you are on the sidelines and looking for reentry?

I went in yesterday 10% each C,S, & I. I knew I shouldn't have but was willing to risk a little (not that 30% is chump change ). Now I wait for bottom confirmation. I have been watching yours as well as Bquat's charts and commentary. Very helpful in making my own plans, good or bad lol.

 

[ravensfan]

2825 huh...Interesting as that would be 200 points below the 3025.86 set on 26 July, which was a new all time high for the S&P. Patiently watching for now.

P.S. Thanks again for your great commentary. Always a good read!

 

[coolhand]

Looks like I may be seeing my 2750 on the SPY before this is all over.

2750 would be in the area of horizontal support from the June low, but 2825 has held twice (so far) and we have the 200 dma below that, which is just above the rising 200 dma (just under 2800). I'm not favoring 2750 at the moment, but it is in play.

I take it you are on the sidelines and looking for reentry?

 

[BooDog]

Looks like I may be seeing my 2750 on the SPY before this is all over.

 

[coolhand]

We got a bounce. It may or may not hold. A bottom may or may not be in, but at least the selling has stopped for the moment.




RSI has turned up a bit and momentum is stalling and may begin to turn back up if the rally has any legs. I don't think the selling is over as volatility will likely remain until the market settles down. But let's see how it goes.

Cumulative breadth turned back up, but remains negative. The OEX remains neutral and the CBOE remains on the bullish side.

I don't have much else to add this evening. We'll have to see whether we have a bottom or not.

 

[coolhand]

The question is which fund will be the one to be in once the reversal starts? My guess would be the "S" fund but looking for opinions.

CH, great analysis.

They take turns leading and lagging, but generally trend in the same direction. I have no favorites in such an environment, but historically the S fund tends to do well in a sustained rally.

 

[nasa1974]

The question is which fund will be the one to be in once the reversal starts? My guess would be the "S" fund but looking for opinions.

CH, great analysis.

 

[coolhand]

NAAIM's bullishness last week certainly hasn't translated into rising prices the past few trading days. It is highly unusual given how they have been correctly positioned for a long time now. What does that tell us? I suspect that the current decline was manufactured and likely on very short notice. The battle for control over the global market has quickly manifested in price destruction and caught a whole lot of traders and investors in its crosshairs.




There is no way to sidestep the obvious damage these charts depict. Price on the DWCPF is already testing its 200 dma. Price on the S&P 500 doesn't look far behind. Both gapped and ran lower. The EFA is also in bad shape. RSI is pretty much oversold at that this point, but downside momentum is rising. And futures are currently pointing to much bigger losses come Tuesday's opening bell (barring an overnight reversal).



Breadth on the NYSE is now negative.



Advance/Decline Volume on the NYSE is quite high. It rivals the decline we endured last December. But we recovered, didn't we?

This evening, the OEX Is neutral and the CBOE is bullish (it was bullish for Monday too). That's dumb money, but right now it isn't so dumb. Remember, the CBOE is looked at from a contrarian perspective. They are bearish. That means we treat it as bullish.

So, it appears that Tuesday's action may be a continuation of frenzied selling. At what point will exhaustion occur? We still need to see if the 200 dma holds on the S&P 500, but that's still much lower than we are currently. And that means the DWCPF will almost certainly fall much further under its own 200 dma.

There is no telling where the bottom may be. I still think the market reverses this week, but when traders are running for the exits (globally) it's impossible to know where the bottom is. We can only point to the indicators that are oversold and likely getting even more oversold before it's over. Sentiment is probably going to get more bearish than we've seen in some time (which would be bullish). It's tough to hold on in such times, but if we do indeed reverse it will be even tougher to watch the rally from the sidelines if we aren't in it.

 

[coolhand]

We need to watch the 200 dma for support. The obvious danger is that many bulls bail on the pain and the market then reverses shortly after. And it can be a fast turn as "they" want as few as possible jumping back in near the bottom. This assumes the market does eventually recover, which is still my expectation.

I jumped in COB 08/01 Half in C, half in S.
I'm afraid I made a really bad mistake!

Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

 

[1965Vintage]

I jumped in COB 08/01 Half in C, half in S.
I'm afraid I made a really bad mistake!

Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

 

[coolhand]

Here's a snapshot of the charts after less than an hour of trading:




There is no denying the significance and emotional response of the market to geopolitical machinations as we start the new week. Monday is picking up where Friday left off (and accelerating). This is what Central Banks do to us. They wipe out gains so fast you have little chance to react. The market goes up on an escalator and down in an elevator. The DWCPF may end up testing its 200 dma today. The S&P 500 appears to be far enough above its 200 dma that it isn't likely to test it today. Volume is elevated. Gold has broken a key resistance area. Crypto is rallying. These are indicators of fear in the financial system.

Last year, I warned that the market was not as healthy as the talking heads would have us believe. That's still true. The only reason the market hasn't tanked is because it is being artificially propped up. Read "Creature From Jekyll Island" to really understand what the Central Bank is all about.

So, where do we stand at this time? As ugly as the market is right now, we could still bottom and maybe even rally smartly back up. I am still of the opinion that this will be the eventual outcome. But I also have to admit that on a global scale the market is fragile. Some time ago, I recommended listening to the X22 Report to get a solid, daily perspective of the Central Bank situation as well the geopolitical picture, both of which may directly impact market behavior at any given time. I can't post the link because there are those on this board who would object in strong terms, but you can still find the link easily enough on your own.

Learn what's really going on in the world. Reality is much different than most think. That's why I have the avatar that I do. We are all in the matrix. It's time to wake up. Take the red pill.

 

[coolhand]

It was not a good week for the bulls last week. All 3 TSP stock funds were hammered for big losses.




Friday's action saw price fall through a key support area (50 dma) on the both charts. The S&P 500 recovered to close above it, but the DWCPF closed under it. Both closed well off their lows of the day, so that gives the bulls something to be encouraged about.

NAAIM was solidly bullish on Thursday, which is a key sentiment indicator. Our TSP Talk survey was less bullish, but still bullish nonetheless. The OEX is neutral and the CBOE is bullish for Monday.

Cumulative breadth is now neutral. The A/D Line is bearish. My intermediate term system is bearish.

Taken as a whole, there is reason to look for the indexes to recover. NAAIM's bullish perspective is not trivial. Many technical indicators are oversold and stretched. But they can get more stretched.

I am looking for a bottom at any time. Since price is in the process of testing a key support area, it could come soon. The 200 dma is also a possibility, which is much lower. I don't favor that outcome, but I can't say it won't happen. We'll know next week, which is when I think a reversal is likely to come.

 

[Mcqlives]

It actually looks like April’s action near its highs may be establishing as a floor right now. Hope this is very temporary action today.

 

[coolhand]

Stocks still don't like the tariff BS and it looks like it could be a lousy close for the week and a real bad start for the month.

It's never fun riding stocks lower, but I remain bullish given NAAIM's position and the fact that the indicators are already oversold. With VIX rising, a snap-back rally could come any time, but I'm not sure it will be today. The tariff stuff is just an excuse to take stocks lower. It's really not about tariffs. Kabuki theater at its finest.

 

[nasa1974]

Stocks still don't like the tariff BS and it looks like it could be a lousy close for the week and a real bad start for the month.