coolhand's Account Talk

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Re: China

We really need to get over the propaganda being pumped by the insiders that China is going to save us. In my opinion, we're going to look back on the China story in 15 years and realize it was all just a flash in the pan. What was the PE of FXI last year at this time? 150? What's it at now?

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The upgrade call on GS today reminds me of the book 1984 when everyone went about smiling and thinking happy thoughts so they wouldn't get snatched up.
 
Bullitt said:
Re: China

We really need to get over the propaganda being pumped by the insiders that China is going to save us. In my opinion, we're going to look back on the China story in 15 years and realize it was all just a flash in the pan. What was the PE of FXI last year at this time? 150? What's it at now?

------

The upgrade call on GS today reminds me of the book 1984 when everyone went about smiling and thinking happy thoughts so they wouldn't get snatched up.
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China is having their own problems, but the media doesn't really address them. Stratfor does. Their "stimulus" plan is short term only and was designed to keep employment from getting "out of hand", but it won't last forever, and as the global picture continues to look dismal they will really be pressed to keep things together. There's also a lot of corruption within their system with much of the stimulus funneled to scam outfits. That's the nutshell version.
 
Goldman Sachs estimated Chinese growth will be faster than the nearly 8% it predicted earlier in the week because of the trade numbers. Their domestic demand growth has been gaining strength. Now if they would start buying farm machinery from CNH I'd be content.
 
Frankly, it has been international trade and exports that have kept many of our domestic companies alive - preventing them from increasing unemployment. It is the global economy and emerging markets that is helping us survive and we will return the favors. This economy's GDP will be revised upward to perhaps a positive range in Q2 and the market may already know that is a possibility. And with oil prices softening again it's all cumulative for the consumer. Steak and Shake over the weekend late into the wee hours was busy.
 
Birchtree said:
Show courage and go short. Only fools buy this puppy.
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Alas, my brokers haven't priviledged me yet with shorting trade level, I'm stuck with short ETFS til they graciously decide to upgrade me someday. So, I have a small hedge on oil n gas stocks and commod ETF with a small piece of 1x short oil ETF that's softening the decline. Still waiting to see which way this cat's really going to jump before I give up either commods/stocks or hedge. Next stop may be Russel 2K (not 2x) short ETF, never know. :blink: CIT anyone?
 
Birchtree said:
Alevin,

I don't do shorts - I was only being facetious. But I do buy anything that stinks.
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Birch, I think we'd all know by now if you practiced shorting/hedging at all, so it was quite clear you were just teasing the bears. Altho watch out, bears are known to eat carrion when nothing else available. :)
 
Hey coolhand, looks like the SS signals are all in a "buy" as of COB today. $BPCPMPQ was the last to enter today, I think. I guess we're waiting for a "positive divergence" to confirm? Any work from IYB?
 
akpackfan said:
Hey coolhand, looks like the SS signals are all in a "buy" as of COB today. $BPCPMPQ was the last to enter today, I think. I guess we're waiting for a "positive divergence" to confirm? Any work from IYB?
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Yes. They did go to a buy. Here's what IYB says...

"It comes down to interpretation at this point. Right now, today, the Seven have all gone to buy status. But to get a valid buy signal for the market, we have to have had the proper set-up first. My interpretation says that we have not had that, and that there is no buy signal - which in turn means that the sell signal still prevails. Personally, I've had several stops hit today. While I'm sticking to my guns, obviously I could be wrong. The stakes are high, because if I'm wrong we should be buying with both hands instead of holding shorts. But I can only call it as I see it and let the chips fall where they may. Best, D"
 
I am seeing bulls fall all over themselves right now. The bear is dead they say.

They love the smell of their own patties as much as a cat loves catnip. :D

But this is OPEX and da boyz may have other designs. I'm not bearish right now, and I'm not bullish either. I'm cautious. I'm looking for a little more confirmation and that may take a few more trading days. I never got a buy signal from my service this week, although I was told we could see another rally. But this one moved very fast and fairly far, so it may be a bearish upthrust.

I'm willing to buy this market under the right circumstances, even though the fundamentals still suck. Such is the nature of the stock market. If the internals continue to improve that may be the deciding factor. More time is needed to confirm a SS buy.
 
Saw that map a few weeks ago. I used to live in one of the reddest counties on that map. Still got a number of friends there. It's a hurtin' place. 'Member I talked about ranches up for sale everywhere I went on a recent trip? that's the county.
 
Unemployment shown looks awful. Painful and contracting. I suppose that the statistics don't show those who are working part-time only and can't make ends meet - for all practical purpose those are also unemployed.
 
Just wanted to provide a link for Oscar, he just put out a great video this morning where he discusses how we are about to test the top of the S+P head and shoulder formation that has been forming. He also talks about the Nasdaq as well.

Despite his used car salesman/carnival barker style, I think he does great technical analysis and presentations based on chart patterns, and makes a sometimes difficult subject pretty easy to understand (at least for me). By the way I do not pay to subscribe to this guy or have anything to do with the site - just seems like a good way to learn some TA stuff.

http://www.livewithoscar.com/
 
mdszj said:
Just wanted to provide a link for Oscar, he just put out a great video this morning where he discusses how we are about to test the top of the S+P head and shoulder formation that has been forming. He also talks about the Nasdaq as well.

Despite his used car salesman/carnival barker style, I think he does great technical analysis and presentations based on chart patterns, and makes a sometimes difficult subject pretty easy to understand (at least for me). By the way I do not pay to subscribe to this guy or have anything to do with the site - just seems like a good way to learn some TA stuff.

http://www.livewithoscar.com/
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I watch his videos every now and again and you're right, you can pick up some good TA techniques here.
 
A really nice read from IYB - thanks for sharing. Big bull markets always find a way to keep you frightened and out. To get in you have to close your eyes and just do it. Not easy, but in investing nothing is easy except losing money. If I can catch another rally today I'm a solid buyer.
 
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