coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

Yesterday, I said that another reversal appeared to be imminent given some of the indicators. That meant I was looking for a rally on Thursday. Well, we got the rally. And it was a pretty good one. It just didn't hold up under the tariff narrative floated by POTUS.




Now, we do have technical damage to the charts. It is not serious...yet. The 50 and 200 dma's remain intact. But momentum has turned down rather hard. And the A/D Line is under attack. Cumulative breadth remains positive, but is also under attack. My intermediate term system flipped negative today.

So, is the market in trouble? It's possible, but there is a problem with the bearish perspective.

The NAAIM reading today showed the bears among them avoiding shorts. They are not positioned for a decline. In fact, the reading is darn bullish as they are leveraged long. This is smart money. They are very likely looking past any short term weakness and betting that once the bullish case is more compelling than the bearish one.

The fact that so many indicators are under pressure or flipped negative supports that outcome too.

For Friday, the OEX is bearish, while the CBOE is neutral. I don't think we turn on Friday, but perhaps later next week. Remember, we've seen this kind of volatility before. Weak bulls will be shaken. NAAIM is apparently not among them.

 

[coolhand]

We have quite a battle going on for control of price in the major averages.




The DWCPF reversed for the 6th day in a row, this time falling back to the bottom of a short-term trading range. Price actually hit a fresh high intra-day, but the bulls were not able to make it stick. One the other hand, the S&P 500 is now having trouble holding ground as price fell rather hard, breaking support intra-day before closing the session near that support level (around 2980). Momentum has turned back down.

My intermediate term system remains positive. I note that TRIN and TRINQ closed at high levels, which is bullish for Thursday, so we may get yet another reversal. Breadth remains bullish. The options look neutral. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

I am expecting this market to break to upside in the days ahead. Let's see how NAAIM positions tomorrow (I anticipate it will be bullish).

 

[coolhand]

Interesting day today as the DWCPF ended the day with moderate gains, but the S&P 500 fell moderately.




Despite the mixed close, both charts are still poised to challenge overhead resistance.

This evening, the OEX is neutral, while the CBOE is leaning bullish. My intermediate term system remains bullish as does cumulative breadth.

Nothing has changed. Wednesday looks neutral, but the bulls continue to hold the advantage and the positive trend should continue.

 

[coolhand]

Monday's action continues the back and forth battle between bulls and bears, with the bears taking back some of Friday's gains.




The charts remain bullish. Momentum has gone largely flat, but the upside bias is still readily seen on the charts.

The options are neutral for Tuesday. Breadth is bullish.

I see no changes to the bullish picture. Let's see if the bulls bounced back tomorrow.

 

[Mcqlives]

Just very quiet around here. Look for people to post more tomorrow and Wednesday since it is the end of the month.

 

[Bill3438]

Is the thread open. I have not received any new posting since 7/27/19.

 

[Bill3438]

Is the thread open. I not received any new posting since 7/27/19.

 

[coolhand]

Last week, the bulls took back control of market direction (short term), pushing both the S&P 500 and DWCPF to fresh highs. Both indexes were up significantly, but the EFA (I Fund) remained near neutral, which may in part be due to a rising dollar.




So the charts are looking decidedly bullish. The long term trend remains up.

My intermediate term system remains bullish, but it did come close to flipping negative just a week ago. That is now in the rear view mirror for the time being.

Cumulative breadth turned back up on Friday and remains bullish.

The options are neutral for Monday. NAAIM is bullish. TSP Talk got bulled up after last week. As long as we are leaning in the direction of NAAIM, risk should be mitigated in the face of rising stock prices (indexes).

And that remains my perspective. Follow the smart money (NAAIM).

 

[coolhand]

The aaii bull reading for 7/25 is 32, downfrom 36% the prior week...hasn't really moved either way in July by my eyes.

In my opinion, most sentiment surveys don't have the value they once had. I find that NAAIM is an exception if one knows how to evaluate it. I can't use it for surgical moves nearly as effectively as a longer term strategy, however. But as a longer term strategy it's been pretty accurate. You just have to be willing to endure volatility from time to time.

 

[amoeba]

The aaii bull reading for 7/25 is 32, downfrom 36% the prior week...hasn't really moved either way in July by my eyes.

 

[coolhand]

Yesterday, the DWCPF had what appeared to be a decisive upside breakout. And cumulative breadth seemed to confirm the move with its own upside spike. One day later and the gains were significantly pared. Fake out?




First, it isn't unusual to have a reversal after a big move. Second, not all gains were erased (to this point). I suspect the selling may be short lived.

Cumulative breadth did dip, but still remains bullish. I'm reporting early today so I don't have the options data, but I do have the NAAIM data and that's much more important to me.

NAAIM saw the bears significantly back off on their shorts and the bulls got more bullish. In fact, the reading is as bullish as I've seen it in many weeks. So, the smart money is loading up. Any questions?

 

[coolhand]

Breakout!

It took some time, but there was no mistaking the breakout in the small cap space today.




While the S&P 500 is testing is previous peak, the DWCPF blew past resistance in a way that leaves little doubt that the break is for real.

Even more compelling was that cumulative breadth spiked higher. That's often a sign that there may be more upside coming.

The OEX has not reported at this time, but the CBOE is neutral.

We got some bullish action today that is very suggestive of more to come. NAAIM reports in the morning.

 

[hotwings]

CH,

Congrats on your upcoming retirement. I’ve been retired 1 1/2 years and luv doing what I want when I want. There is definitely more to life than going to work if you have planned for it! Thanks always for your market analysis. It’s certainly appreciated.
V/r,
HW

Thank you for all the kind and thoughtful posts. I anticipated I'd get a response, but I had to let you all know that things were going to change for me as the year winds down. I did not want to just disappear and leave you all wondering what happened to me. Fact is, I wouldn't be posting my thoughts on this board if I didn't care about each of you as you try to manage your financial affairs. What I have learned over the years did not come easy or quick and I am happy to share my perspective with you all. I do expect to keep posting for most of the balance of this year. After that, I don't know how much involvement I'll have here. Maybe a weekly post with alerts as needed? It really doesn't take me long to survey the markets. Anyway, thanks so much for the love. I do feel blessed.

Here's tonight's market commentary:

The bulls bounced the market today. Again, this is more consistent action with the latest NAAIM reading.

View attachment 44637
View attachment 44636

No breakouts yet. The back and forth action remains in play. It should still resolve to the upside at some point.

Cumulative breadth remains positive, but my intermediate term system, while still positive, is under attack and not far from flipping negative. Breadth trumps the IT system in my book.

This evening, the OEX is bearish, while the CBOE is neutral.

I don't see a reason to look for a breakout just yet. The indicators point to more sideways action, but the longer term remains bullish until proven otherwise. As long as NAAIM is largely bullish, a long position in stocks is justified (not necessarily 100%, but that's a personal decision).

 

[PessOptimist]

Enjoy your retirement! I am confident you have read all the stuff posted about retirement and the pitfalls or triumphs. Please consider starting a retirement thread to let us all know how it goes with you, your agency and OPM.

Thanks for all your posts and keep it up if you can.

PO

 

[coolhand]

Thank you for all the kind and thoughtful posts. I anticipated I'd get a response, but I had to let you all know that things were going to change for me as the year winds down. I did not want to just disappear and leave you all wondering what happened to me. Fact is, I wouldn't be posting my thoughts on this board if I didn't care about each of you as you try to manage your financial affairs. What I have learned over the years did not come easy or quick and I am happy to share my perspective with you all. I do expect to keep posting for most of the balance of this year. After that, I don't know how much involvement I'll have here. Maybe a weekly post with alerts as needed? It really doesn't take me long to survey the markets. Anyway, thanks so much for the love. I do feel blessed.

Here's tonight's market commentary:

The bulls bounced the market today. Again, this is more consistent action with the latest NAAIM reading.




No breakouts yet. The back and forth action remains in play. It should still resolve to the upside at some point.

Cumulative breadth remains positive, but my intermediate term system, while still positive, is under attack and not far from flipping negative. Breadth trumps the IT system in my book.

This evening, the OEX is bearish, while the CBOE is neutral.

I don't see a reason to look for a breakout just yet. The indicators point to more sideways action, but the longer term remains bullish until proven otherwise. As long as NAAIM is largely bullish, a long position in stocks is justified (not necessarily 100%, but that's a personal decision).

 

[FAAM]

YES... Ditto what they've all said. Congratulations! Thanks so much for your service to our country, and for your efforts and sharing with our TSP-Talk community for so many years. Will miss you & hope you pop-in more often than not. Kurt.

 

[Frixxxx]

I need to let you folks know sooner rather than later that I am not renewing my subscription to Stockcharts (I don't trade anymore). It expires sometime in August. I will also be leaving Federal Service later this year. At some point, I anticipate going largely silent on the board. Exactly when, I am not sure, but retirement is going to have me focused on other things. We'll see how it goes.

I remember when I first met you here on the boards, we've seen weird times, a recession, and your advice has been really important in my dealings with the market! Don't be a stranger and at least post in the lounge something from your retired life! Well earned sir!

 

[milog]

Enjoy your retirement and thank you for all the great insight!


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

 

[nnuut]

Contrary to popular belief Life goes on after retirement, I should know I retired in 2010 and am still around doing the TSPTALK thing. I enjoy it, gives me something to do while STILL trying to MAKE MORE MONEY!! I Love IT!!:banana:

 

[Whipsaw]

CH, best of luck to you in retirement, may it be fulfilling, joyful and relaxing. Funny, your Neo avatar had me thinking you were a young dude! Thanks for all the great market thoughts and insights! Wishing you fair winds and following seas.