coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

Once again, not much has changed with the big picture after today's session.




The S&P 500 continues to find a way to creep higher, but at the same time the DWCPF can't break resistance. That may be a problem.

However, NAAIM came in solidly bullish. The bears among them are not getting in the way of this rally. And the bulls appear to see more gains ahead. This has been the group to follow for a long time now and there is no reason to change that perspective now. Yes, there are serious events that are slowly playing out and they will almost certainly have an impact on the market at some point, but the market can be perverse and rally like crazy when it seems it shouldn't. This could be the making of a blow off top that takes weeks to play out before any serious selling manifests, but this is just a scenario I have and not something I would hang my hat on. It's impossible to predict these things with pinpoint accuracy. Take it week by week for now.

Breadth remains positive as does my intermediate term system. The options are neutral and not much help.

Staying long would seem to be the best plan for now, but watch for changes as events unfold. We'll see how long NAAIM remains bulled up. It could be awhile yet. Some think the bull will run into the 2020 election, but I have my reservations about that.

 

[coolhand]

Not surprisingly, the bulls showed once again that they are in control.




Perhaps the biggest aspect of today's action was that the S&P 500 cleared the 3,000 mark (even if it couldn't hold it). The DWCPF is still trying to break resistance, but if the S&P continues to probe higher, I expect the DWCPF to do the same (over time).

Not much change to my indicators (bullish). The OEX is neutral and the CBOE is bearish for Thursday. NAAIM reports in the morning.

 

[coolhand]

The sellers tried to extend their downside assault today, but the bulls countered as the day wore on and successfully pushed price out of the red by the close.




No changes to the charts. My intermediate term system remains bullish. Breadth remains bullish as well. The options are neutral.

The short term is looking neutral, but things could change quickly. I am still not looking for any serious downside action (at this time) and still think we have more upside coming.

 

[coolhand]

I just wanted to let you folks know that there are elements of the financial/geopolitical landscape that are increasing market risk at this time. Deutsche Bank is a huge global financial risk right now. They are in the process of letting about 18,000 global employees go. What should get our attention is that they are also getting out of stocks. This bank is a huge domino amongst dominos. Are they signaling to the financial world that they are getting out before a financial dislocation occurs? It's very possible. Couple that with the Epstein indictment, which is another huge powder keg. These events can intersect along with others, but these 2 in particular have me a bit concerned.

It is impossible to know for sure how this plays out or how much time is involved before anything of magnitude (positive or negative) might occur, but you may want to start following these events closely as part of a market risk strategy. Do not be complacent. I'm not saying run for the hills, I'm just pointing out that these situations have the potential to cause global shockwaves.

 

[coolhand]

Monday saw the broader market give back some of last week's gains, so the battle between the bulls and bears continues.




No technical damage was done, but the DWPCF continues to be repelled at resistance even as the S&P has solidified its position above is previous resistance line, which is now support.

The options are neutral this evening. Breadth remains bullish. I see no reason to back away from my bullish stance.

 

[coolhand]

The TSP stock funds all posted nice gains last week. Friday's action saw the market attempt to give back a good portion of those gains, but the bulls stepped in and offset the sellers to a large extent to end the session near the neutral line (C & S funds).




The DWCPF has still not broken through resistance, but it's still knocking. Momentum is positive (rising).

Sentiment for the new week has NAAIM leaning bullish. TSP Talk is very bullish, which is past years would be bearish, but this market isn't responding in historical fashion to sentiment so I don't get too bearish on bulled up sentiment in this survey. We are often in the same camp as NAAIM. The OEX is bullish for Monday, while the CBOE is neutral.

Cumulative breadth remains bullish as does the A/D line.

I remain bullish heading into the new week. With the S&P 500 sporting a recent upside breakout and the DWCPF probably poised to do the same, I am looking for more upside. It doesn't hurt that the indicators favor the bulls as well.

 

[coolhand]

I hope everyone is having a great 4th of July! My neighbors are lighting up the skies as I write this this evening.




Wednesday saw the major averages push price higher, with the S&P 500 looking very much like it is breaking out. The DWCPF is knocking on the door of resistance again, and has yet to join the S&P in an upside breakout. I do think it is coming, however.

My intermediate term remains bullish. Breadth remains bullish. The options are neutral. NAAIM came in a bit more bullish and that is how we should be positioned as well. The breakout on the S&P should be a confidence boost for the bulls.

 

[coolhand]

The S&P 500 finished the day with a fresh high today.




The DWCPF closed with a modest loss. With the S&P sporting a bullish picture, I expect that the DWCPF will eventually join that average at new highs.

Not much has changed to my indicators. The options are neutral. The bias remains up.

 

[Robo5555]

Maybe the holiday week will bring more positive gains.

 

[coolhand]

We got another big open to start the new week and while the market closed well off its highs of the day, it closed with solid gains nonetheless.




Boom! The S&P 500 pushed past its previous highs. Price on the DWCPF is knocking on the door of resistance.

Looking at my intermediate term system, along with cumulative breadth, I get the sense the upside is not over.

The options are neutral this evening.

It is certainly looking like the rally may have legs, but I don't expect it to go straight up. Patience has been rewarding for long bulls. I am looking for a positive week now.

 

[coolhand]

I'm neutral heading into the week, but futures this Monday morning are pointing to a blast-off open. Even NAAIM was not evenly positioned, but I may be getting ahead of myself as we don't know what kind of volatility we might see today (if any). I'm pretty sure the news is driving the action. And this kind of news (geo-political) is not as discernable to insiders (like NAAIM) as central bank driven news. This could get interesting if the market takes out the highs today or soon after.

 

[coolhand]

As I mentioned a few trading days ago, NAAIM was neutral, which suggested sideways action. Last week saw the TSP stock funds close mixed, with the C fund down and the S and I funds up. This is consistent with the NAAIM reading.

Friday's action saw some degree of volatility as the bulls and bears continued their push to control price. That is not likely to change in the short term.




The past 2 trading days has seen price on the DWCPF retrace the bulk of its losses. The S&P 500 has also retraced losses. Both charts show price above the 50 dma (as well as the 200 dma). Cumulative breadth and the A/D Line have gotten particularly bullish the past 2 trading days.

My intermediate term system remains positive.

Sentiment shows the OEX neutral, while the CBOE is bearish. TSP Talk has been overly bullish the past 2 weeks, but that bullishness was tempered a bit this week. NAAIM is neutral and suggests continued volatile market action.

Aside from the up/down nature of trading, the market remains a bull. Price is very likely going to hit fresh highs sooner or later. This week looks neutral to me.

 

[coolhand]

We got a bounce. Is there more?

I can't seem to upload charts this evening, so I'm just going to provide the analysis.

The DWCPF rallied much more so then the S&P 500 today. It retraced about half its losses. That is certainly a positive sign for the bulls.

Cumulative breadth turned up smartly and remains positive.

Looking at sentiment, the options look neutral overall as we head into Friday. NAAIM saw the bears among them take short positions, while the bulls actually increased their long positions. The reading is neutral overall. My sense is that since both side are placing bets, we have more volatility heading our way. Chances are, neither side gets full control so that may limit both the upside and downside at this time. It's still a bull market, however, so any volatility is likely to eventually resolve higher.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls tried to bounce the market today, but the sellers unloaded on strength.




Neither chart is in trouble technically. The rally was steep and that lends itself to profit taking at some point. With NAAIM mostly neutral, I don't anticipate a ton of selling from here, though the DWCPF could test its 200 dma and the S&P 500 its 50 dma.

My intermediate term system is still positive, but deteriorating. Breadth remains positive too, but could flip on another plunge.

The OEX is bearish this evening and the CBOE is modestly bullish.

I don't think the selling is done yet. The market may need to do more technical damage before it turns back up again. NAAIM reports in the morning.

 

[coolhand]

Now, things are getting more interesting.




The S&P 500 fared well on Monday, but got clobbered on Tuesday. Price on the DWCPF continued to plunge. Both charts show price closing near their lows of the day. Of note, the dollar is getting hammered the past few days, but it bounced today.

The options are neutral again.

My intermediate term system is now under attack, but remains positive. Cumulative breadth is still positive, but also under attack. Another hit like today and breadth will go negative.

It was a tell of sorts that NAAIM wasn't embracing the rally. But the bears among them weren't betting much either. Had they been shorting more I would have been in the bearish camp for this week, but because they weren't I went neutral.

Closing at the lows of the day isn't bullish. And given my intermediate term system hasn't turned yet, that tells me there is more room for downside action, though it doesn't have to happen without an occasional bounce.

Caution is warranted for now. Have some dry powder on standby if you can.

 

[nnuut]

Took a bath in the "S" fund today. Let's hope it moves up even a little by the end of the week. Don't want to lose all the monthly gains. Got hurt bad in May and sure don't want to see this month go down the drain.

Nailed me too, I'm out!

 

[nasa1974]

Took a bath in the "S" fund today. Let's hope it moves up even a little by the end of the week. Don't want to lose all the monthly gains. Got hurt bad in May and sure don't want to see this month go down the drain.

 

[coolhand]

The week started off with a win for the bears. No surprise though.




The S&P 500 didn't fall much, but the DWCPF closed all the way back down to its 50 dma.

The options are neutral this evening. Breadth is falling, but remains bullish as does the A/D Line.

I remain neutral.

 

[coolhand]

Friday saw the market give something back. It was due, but volume was elevated. Gold continues to rally as well.




Both charts still look fine, but now that the S&P hit its high last week, can we see more give back than the token dip on Friday? I suspect the market may not be done with the downside.

My indicators still look bullish, but after such a fast rally the market may need time to digest those gains.

Cumulative breadth dipped, but remains bullish. My intermediate term system remains bullish and maybe a bit toppy on some of the indicators that derive its signals.

The OEX is neutral and the CBOE is bearish. NAAIM is neutral, but that is reason for some caution.

This market may be in the beginning stages of a transition. I do not know exactly what that means, but any transition will very likely take months to play out. Of course, that's my read at this moment in time, which is subject to change as the market moves forward.

I am neutral heading into the new week, but I don't think any upside will be easy in the short term. I don't like the neutral NAAIM reading, but don't take that as bearish, because they aren't. It's just that they are not overly bullish either. They see something just like I do and they are probably not willing to take big risk on either side of the trade until the market comes more into focus.

 

[nnuut]

All I can say is "DON'T let it happen"!