coolhand's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

This isn't news to most of us on this board, but it certainly goes to show that lipstick can only take you so far. :rolleye

That all depends ....

1. The Chemistry behind it
2 Who is wearing it
3. The color, shade, and type of lipstick and how well it blends with everything else - her facial features and her lips themselves

All things considered I'd say LIPSTICK could take me beyond the Solar System - probably even beyond the Milky Way depending on everything else. It all goes together my friend ....

 

[hessian]

I am in a bit of a quandary. I have a SS buy signal that's been interpreted as a sell and I'm seeing the market moving as if it's really a buy. I'm leaning bullish right now, but I'm not entirely convinced. I'm looking for weakness between now and tomorrow in which case I may commit some cash to equities, but it won't be a full commitment if it plays out that way. But I'm looking to play the bullish scenario at least part of the way at this point unless we do a convincing reversal soon. I don't expect to make a decision today, but tomorrow at the earliest.

I'd sure like to see a healthy correction, if not a convincing reversal, before taking the plunge. But thanks for the heads-up (& for the nod to the Bull-gods:nuts.
VR

 

[coolhand]

All things considered I'd say LIPSTICK could take me beyond the Solar System - probably even beyond the Milky Way depending on everything else. It all goes together my friend ....

And I thought purple haze was a thing of the 60s. :nuts:

 

[Boghie]

A healthy Correction...

Hessian,

Me thinks you are spoiled by the 'corrections' of October, November, and March.

I mean, how can one call the July 1 - July 8 5% drop a 'correction' when we are used to that taking place in less than a day I mean, three massive dives where daily dumps are in the 5% - 7% range kinda jades one outlook, eh...

We've also had a 7+% drop from the high.

Pre-Collapse, those would be buying opportunities :laugh:

 

[coolhand]

Just so some of you folks understand why I posted the link to Stickan's analysis and why I treat him with respect, here's a post from Mark Young who runs Trader's Talk as he reacts to some of the negative posts to Stickan's analysis on that MB:

"Right or wrong, Stig posts quality. I've made (and ChartSmarts Subscribers have made) a lot of money from some of the things he has shown us.

This isn't some nobody posting drivel, folks. He knows what he's doing. That doesn't mean he has to be right, only that it's analysis worth considering."

Mark

 

[coolhand]

Stickan, round 3 and VIX:

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=108848

 

[Steadygain]

Thanks Coolhand !

Stickan and Adam Hamilton (and the ones like them) get my attention and highly gain my respect.

We've got a lot of smart guys (and gals) on the MB and I admire them a lot and appreciate the contributions they make. BUT I need someone outside of the MB like these guys to really 'keep me in the know'

Very few are gifted on their level. It's like a natural talent for them and the only times I can relate to anything like that is when I time it just right.

Much appreciated,

Steady

 

[Birchtree]

The NASDAQ is on its best momentum run in 11 years - it must be hard to push back on that strength.

 

[Birchtree]

The NASDAQ is on its best momentum run in 11 years - it must be hard to push back on that strength. The VIX going back to 8 - Jimmy Cricketts!!!

 

[coolhand]

Thanks Coolhand !

Stickan and Adam Hamilton (and the ones like them) get my attention and highly gain my respect.

We've got a lot of smart guys (and gals) on the MB and I admire them a lot and appreciate the contributions they make. BUT I need someone outside of the MB like these guys to really 'keep me in the know'

Very few are gifted on their level. It's like a natural talent for them and the only times I can relate to anything like that is when I time it just right.

Much appreciated,

Steady

YW. Keep in mind that while Stickan is very knowledgable and provides detailed analysis, he has been known to be wrong just like everyone else.

Having said that I think the market will be moving higher as he pointed out. I am beginning to believe that the last SS buy signal was valid. This could be another large wave starting to the upside just like the one we saw in March.
Some exposure to equities is warranted right now. The H&S appears to be dead. I need to check a couple more things this morning before I make any IFT decisions.

 

[coolhand]

Okay, here's my read. Sentiment is shifting. Bears are being converted to bulls and as that trend continues the chances for a sell-off go up. However, the underlying market strength cannot be dismissed lightly. Any sell-off may not be significant either. We should be seeing some short term weakness soon due to the overbought ST conditions, I'm hoping today and maybe more as the week goes on.

I am making the assumption now that the last SS buy signal was valid. Between that and Stickan's post I'm comfortable for now with an equity position.

While I may execute a trade today, I won't be backing up the truck just yet.

Disclaimer: I reserve the right to change my mind at any time.

 

[coolhand]

Very modest IFT today. 5% each in C and S. I had hoped for more weakness at the beginning of the week, and since I didn't get it I'm not going to get crazy with the long side. I expect more weakness in the next few trading days, but in case I don't get much or we move higher I'll at least have some exposure.

Still a lot of folks in G fund, which means traders in general are probably still sitting in a lot of cash positions. Da Boyz are definitely making it tough.

 

[coolhand]

This was the opening commentary for briefing.com today, and I certainly agree with their "sentiment". But that's been the problem in trying to trade this market. The wall of worry is huge, and for good reason, but given the scope of pessimism it's going to be very hard to play the downside based on "fundamentals". Still, I like reading level-headed commentary, even it's not consistent with what the market is doing.

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/MarketSnapshot/PageOne.htm

 

[coolhand]

Dollar sell signal here. They have good TA, so this carries some weight. Don't forget the I fund factor.

http://club.ino.com/trading/2009/07/market-flash-sell-the-us-dollar-and-buy-the-japanese-yen/

 

[coolhand]

I was hoping for a pullback yesterday afternoon when I issued my first monthly IFT, and we were seeing some decent downside action around noon time, but once again underlying strength in the market stepped in and pushed the indicies higher.

Futures are moderately lower right now, but that's a poor indicator of expected market action. Actually, I tend to view it as a contrarian indicator.

My buy signals continue to be weak. What I mean by that is when I get a buy signal, market action should be weak, which usually means I'm buying on a dip. But lately my buy signals have been fleeting and offering little or no buying opportunity to time a TSP IFT. This is a definite sign of market strength.

I'm looking for more weakness in the next several trading days to buy in to, whether I get them or not obviously remains to be seen, but I have enough indications now to have some exposure to equities. At this point, I think the Intermediate Term (next 2 months or so) will see higher prices.

The one thing I do not want to see any time soon is another SS sell signal, and in this market it's a real possibility.

 

[coolhand]

Still a lot of bears shorting the market and everyone is expecting a reversal at any time. There are some pockets of increased bullishness, but I'm not sure it's enough to off-set the bears who are pounding the table for a reversal. We know what happens when everyone starts crowding the exits.

Still, we are due for a pullback. But considering how this market has been acting I suspect we push higher for at least one more day, and if we dip, I'm not looking for significant damage.

For now I'm holding my position with just a 10% exposure to equities. I'd like to buy some I fund, but only on a dip. Intermediate Term still looks higher and that's what I'm basing my trades on. Not the short term.

 

[Birchtree]

Just a month ago the Shark was saying that he was not excited by this market - now he says if you're not chasing this market, you're being left behind. He thinks too short term and that's why I don't subscribe.

 

[coolhand]

I'm not going to be around a computer today, but I will have internet access from my cell should I decide to make an IFT. I don't expect to make one though, as futures are only up modestly and I'm not expecting a sell-off just yet.

 

[coolhand]

I just got back to a computer and all I can say is wow. And with volume too.

This has been one heck of a rally and it was one of those that was difficult to assess. If I had been able to trust the seven sentinels last week, I could have picked up at least 5 or 6%. This market has been deceptive for several months now and one would have to embrace risk to take advantage of it.

After today I'm not so sure I'm looking to buy any more.

Maybe I want to sell first and hope the beginning of August gives me a better opportunity.

This push higher won't go on forever without retracing at some point. The higher it moves without consolidating the larger the retracement may be. I know I wasn't expecting a lot of damage to the downside, but the market is really getting ahead of itself here.

Looking for weakness again over the next several days. As I mentioned earlier, I may be looking to sell my small position in equities in the short term now that we are closing in on August. It won't be an easy decision and may do something entirely different as things play out.

 

[Birchtree]

The SPX is now up 46% since its March lows. The transports today were up 3.3% - moving above their triple top - a very bullish pattern. Should I take my snake oil some place else?