coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

It was another one of those up and down days today that saw a mixed close.




Volume was on the lighter side today. Price backed off the peak a bit more on the S&P. I get the impression that this index may be coiling for a upside break through resistance. The DWCPF bounced, but that does little to change the picture for this index, which remains below the 50 dma, but also above support in the 2020 area. Momentum is now flat on both charts, however momentum is still in positive territory on the S&P, but negative on the DWCPF.



Breadth ticked higher, but that doesn't change much. It's still rather neutral overall.

I remain neutral overall and modestly bullish on the S&P.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls notched a win today, but it didn't clear up the fog around this market.




Price on the S&P attempted an upside break through resistance, but got pushed back for a modest gain overall. Price on the DWCPF came very close to testing resistance at its 50 dma. It closed for a decent gain on the day. Momentum and strength are not inspiring on either chart.



Cumulative breadth ticked higher and the signal is technically bullish, but like price, it's not inspiring.

NAAIM's neutral stance (as well as our own) would seem consistent to this point with market action as the market gets ready to head into Thursday. We'll get a fresh NAAIM reading around mid-day.

I remain neutral overall and modestly bullish on the S&P.

 

[coolhand]

NAAIM remains neutral. I want to point out that the bears are not showing any levered positions. I also want to point out the bulls have cut their leverage by half. That's actually been the case for 4 weeks now. So, the neutral reading is very much that. It certainly seems apparent that they are collectively watching for clues about something (or multiple somethings) to get a better sense of where the market might be headed.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls took control of the action today as price on both the DWCPF and S&P gapped higher at the open and remained at elevated levels throughout the trading session.




The S&P easily posted a fresh all-time high, while the DWCPF saw price close above its 50 dma for the first time in the last 8 trading sessions. Momentum ticked higher on both charts. Is this the breakout we're looking for? It might be with the S&P, but the DWCPF has more work to do as resistance looms not terribly far above its closing price.



Breadth looked very good on the day and signal is solidly bullish right now.

NAAIM came in solidly neutral. That's not much help at all; especially with today's positive action.

It does remain a bull market and I think its heavily coated in Teflon. Still, while the S&P has marched higher within a rising channel, the DWCPF broke its channel several weeks ago and has been moving more sideways (within a range) for about 6 weeks now. So, we don't have an even market at the moment. Maybe the DWCPF plays catch-up. Maybe it doesn't. It's too soon to be sure. With a neutral NAAIM reading I think I'd give this market some room and not get overly bulled up on the positive action we got today. I continue to favor the S&P over the DWCPF until proven otherwise.

I am going to remain neutral with a modest bullish sentiment toward the S&P.

 

[coolhand]

The week has begun with an impressive rally in the S&P. The DWCPF moved higher as well, but the action was much less impressive.




Price on the DWCPF gapped fairly high at the open and was immediately met with significant selling pressure that took it back to neutral and even negative territory for a short while. The S&P was a much different story as price gapped at the open and rose higher for about 3 hours before going sideways; but it kept its gains. The S&P chart is certainly bullish at this point, but the DWCPF remains more questionable as to whether it will rejoin the S&P at fresh highs.



Cumulative breadth rose and remains bullish.

I am going from modestly bullish on the S&P to bullish, but will remain neutral on the DWCPF.

 

[coolhand]

It was a relatively quiet day today with price staying in a somewhat limited range.




Price closed modestly lower on the S&P today and moderately higher on the DWCPF. Volume was lower than average, but not by a lot. Momentum continues to rise on both charts, but especially so on the S&P. So, the S&P remains decided bullish. I did not mention it yesterday, but don't forget the lower high on the DWCPF from about a month ago. I don't draw lines anymore, but you can visualize about where it runs. That's resistance and it's not far overhead.



Cumulative remains bullish.

So, nothing has changed. While the DWCPF is showing signs of life, until breaks out to the upside there is a chance the current attempt to rally higher will form another lower high. We may be close to that now. The S&P has not such problem and is hitting fresh all-time highs.

I remain bullish on the S&P, but neutral on the DWCPF.

 

[coolhand]

The general trend continued today as the S&P rose modestly while the DWCPF was thrown for a moderate loss.




Price on the S&P has traded not far North of 4080 for 3 days now, so there does seem to be some resistance in this area. It may be near time for a pullback in this index. Price on the DWCPF may have peaked for another lower higher, but price also closed on the 50 dma, which may (or may not) provide support. We'll have to see, but I am not particularly optimistic about it holding.



Breadth dipped, but remains bullish.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. I remain bullish on the S&P and neutral on the DWCPF.

 

[coolhand]

NAAIM has taken a decidedly bullish turn. They are looking higher now.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls pushed price higher today, this time on both charts.




The S&P is hitting is hitting fresh all-time highs. By comparison, the DWCPF is trying not the break support. It still looks shaky despite the gain.



Cumulative breadth rose and remains bullish.

NAAIM came in bullish today. It's a solid reading, but not as bullish as readings we've seen in the past. Keep in mind that while they are collectively bullish, we don't know what they are trading, so with the disparity between small caps and large caps the sentiment may or may not be even. This is why I have been differentiating my own sentiment between the 2 indexes.

I remain bullish on the S&P and neutral on the DWCPF.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls capped a positive week with a rally into the final hour of Friday's trading as we headed into the weekend.




The DWCPF has stalled just above its 50 dma, but price on the S&P continues to posted fresh all-time highs. That chart is quite bullish right now in comparison to the DWCPF, which is neutral.



Cumulative breadth rose on Friday and remains bullish (at least for the S&P).

The TSP Talk sentiment survey came in bulled up, which aligns with a bullish NAAIM reading from Thursday.

It should be obvious by now that the S&P is the fund to be in (C Fund). At least at this time. Exposure to the DWCPF can still reap benefits, but we're just not seeing as much positive action as its large cap counterpart. That could change, but that's a big "if" right now. I suspect inflation fears may keep a cap on it.

I remain bullish on the S&P and neutral on the DWCPF.

 

[coolhand]

The market spent the bulk of its day underwater on Monday, but the bulls managed to push price back around the neutral line by the close.




The action changed nothing. It was just a sideways kind of day.



Breadth dipped just slightly and remains bullish.

I am keeping it short tonight. I remain bullish on the S&P and neutral on the DWCPF.

 

[coolhand]

It was a choppy morning session on Tuesday, but the afternoon session belonged to the bulls.




The S&P continues its movement higher. The DWCPF gained as well, but it's still in no-man's land (neutral) with a modest bullish bias (overhead resistance).



Breadth has almost stalled the past few trading days, but remains bullish. It's possible the market is getting ready for another turn back down, but we did have a bullish NAAIM reading, so I'm not convinced the upside is over (for the S&P anyway). Still, why is breadth stalling? Just something to watch.

I remain bullish on the S&P and neutral on the DWCPF.

 

[mmk119]

Coolhand - love your charts and insight. thank you.
do you think the breadth is stalling because everyone is waiting to see the health of the financial picture drawn during this reporting period?

 

[Whipsaw]

Possibly due to earnings season?

 

[coolhand]

My guess is that breadth is stalling as a result of small caps going neutral to slightly bullish (which is probably driven by the specter of inflation). No doubt, there are other reasons, but that one is one of the more likely reasons imo.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls owned the morning session, but then the bears stepped in and took control in the afternoon. All in all the close was kinda neutral (mixed).




Price didn't move far off the neutral line today. I do note that price on the DWCPF, which was moving higher fairly well in the morning session, fell apart in the afternoon. That does not bode well for small caps as price was rejected near the trend line from the 2 previous peaks.



Breadth ticked higher and broke out of its sideways dance, but then again it's not exactly off to the races. It's still a bullish signal.

NAAIM reports tomorrow.

I remain bullish on the S&P and neutral on the DWCPF.

 

[coolhand]

NAAIM came in more bullish than last week. Also notable was that collectively they are not using leverage on short positions. Looks like risk remains to the upside, but I don't know if small caps will join that party the way large caps have. They may go up, but they are fighting resistance (DWCPF).

 

[coolhand]

The bulls had control for pretty much the whole day today. And it was a more even rally, which we really needed.




Price on the S&P gapped higher at the open and never really looked back. Price on the DWCPF also gapped higher, but was almost immediately hit with selling pressure that drove it down quickly in short order. That selling pressure got bought not long after it started and the DWCPF continued on a choppy, but productive day. The DWCPF is still hitting resistance, but today's action gives the bulls hope that fresh highs may be coming before too much longer (that's not a prediction).



Breadth looked much better too, which was not a surprise given the rally in the DWCPF. The signal remains bullish.

NAAIM came in more bullish today and leveraged shorts were not much in evidence. That's a green light for the bulls as far as this sentiment indicator goes.

I remain bullish on the S&P and will go modestly bullish on the DWCPF given today's rally and NAAIM bullish stance. It does still need to cut through resistance, but this does remain a bull market and it did show some life today.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls closed out the week last week with solid gains for the both the S&P and the DWCPF. NAAIM has been bullish, so it should not be much of a surprise that price is rising.




Price on the S&P continues to rise to new all-time highs. That chart is showing on overbought condition (RSI), but we know how overbought can get more overbought. The DWCPF continues to struggle against resistance, but it's still rising.



Breadth looks good on the NYSE and is hitting fresh all-time highs.

The latest TSP Talk sentiment reading shows little change from last week (we remain bulled up). NAAIM is bullish too.

Unless something changes, the indicators continue to favor the bulls. I remain bullish on the S&P and modestly bullish on the DWCPF.

 

[coolhand]

The market took a step back today.




Once again, the DWCPF got the worse of the selling. We can see in the chart that price kissed support at the 50 dma and backed off (up) from that level. For the moment, it's a successful test. But will it get tested again and if it does will it hold?



Cumulative breadth fell today, but the signal remains above the key averages (bullish).

We'll have to watch how price reacts around the 50 dma on the DWCPF. That's the one real concern that I have. The S&P remains solidly bullish.

I remain bullish on the S&P and modestly bullish on the DWCPF, but that index has to stay above support.