coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

It looks like the market has reached one of those intermediate term points where price needs to reverse before pushing price up. Both the S&P and the DWCPF were thrown for losses on the day. That's 2 in a row for the S&P and 3 for the DWCPF




Support at the 50 dma failed on the DWCPF today. This index, which is not exactly falling apart, has not been able to hit a new all-time high since mid-February. And we now have 2 lower highs. But while resistance above is keeping the index in check, support below has keep it afloat. Really, price has gone nowhere in about 2 months (on average).

Momentum has turned down on both charts. The S&P isn't dealing with resistance like the DWCPF is, but we can see it has marched higher for almost a month with only minor dips along the way, so it shouldn't be a surprise if we get more than token selling after that stretch. Volume is only average.



Breadth is also signaling that a turn lower for a few days may be upon us. It's just barely bullish right now.

It's interesting to me that NAAIM got bullish at a time when the indexes (especially the S&P) were vulnerable to a turn down. I don't want to make much of it because so far this selling in within the norm for the market. I suspect that breadth will turn bearish for a bit before a bottom is in. That's how it's been. The indicators have to get bearish first (typically). We'll see.

I am going neutral on both the S&P and the DWCPF. I suspect more downside is in store, but I can't be sure of it.

 

[coolhand]

Yesterday, the indicators were suggesting that a bottom may not be in. I didn't expect serious selling, just enough selling to flip other signals to bearish before turning back up. But Wednesday's rally turned everything right back up.




Price on the S&P retraced more than half of the previous 2 days of losses. Price on the DWCPF pushed back above support at the 50 dma and closed their as well. It still has a lot to prove, however, given it's trading in a range.



Breadth turned back up smartly and remains bullish.

Today's action was decidedly bullish. I'm still more comfortable with the S&P vice the DWCPF as far as price advancing, but we'll see how things play out for another day or two. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

I remain neutral, but if the market follows through on today's rally and NAAIM remains bullish, I'll probably get bullish as well. Let's see what happens.

 

[coolhand]

Latest NAAIM reading shows that they remain bullish. I will go from neutral back to bullish on the S&P and remain neutral on the DWCPF.

 

[coolhand]

The market was doing relatively well for about half the trading day and then the announcement of increased capital gains taxes was released and that was just the thing the market wanted to hear and it dove on the news. All in all though, the damage was not that bad on the day.




Surprisingly, the S&P got hit harder than the DWCPF, which was trying (the DWCPF) to break resistance around the 2210 area before the selling began. Momentum is falling modestly on the S&P and is flat on the DWCPF.



Cumulative breadth dipped, but remains bullish.

NAAIM came in almost unchanged, which keeps them bullish.

I am not expecting a lot more selling on the capital gains tax announcement, but the market may feel otherwise and it may not tell us right away. Keep in mind that news is near impossible to use as a predictor of market behavior. Often, the market sees it coming (before we do).

In any event, I am going bullish again on the S&P given the NAAIM reading and will remain neutral on the DWCPF for now.

 

[coolhand]

Market resilience remains in evidence as Friday's rally demonstrates. For the week, the S&P dipped modestly, while the DWCPF rose moderately.




Looking at the DWCPF, price closed above the previous week's peak and is now ready to challenge or test the March peak. Price on the S&P closed very near its all-time high.



Breadth hit a fresh high on Friday and remains bullish.

Our TSP Talk sentiment survey didn't change a whole lot and remains bullish, just like NAAIM.

It would seem that the market remains on a mission to burn the bears. It's been going on a long time now. I found this article today and thought it was at least somewhat accurate. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/shorts-go-extinct-all-market-sell-signals-are-now-completely-useless

I remain bullish on the S&P and will shift modestly bullish on the DWCPF, which still has work to do on the upside.

 

[Cactus]

Interesting article. Makes it sound like a game of musical chairs. We are riding the melt-up until this D-Day for capital markets hits. Then we expect to recognize it and have a chair to sit in when the music stops.

 

[coolhand]

Monday starts the week off on the bullish side as the S&P posted a modest gain, but the DWCPF rallied for more than 1%.




That rally in the DWCPF saw price close above the March peak and it's now testing the closing February peak. Momentum is rising on the DWCPF, but flat on the S&P.



Cumulative breadth hit another all-time high and remains bullish.

With the DWCPF now showing more life, it is highly likely it will push on to fresh highs. It does need to push past resistance, but since this is still a bull market, are there any doubters that it will fail? NAAIM is bullish and we are bullish. That's been a winning combo most of the time.

I am now bullish on both the S&P and the DWCPF.

 

[coolhand]

The market gave us a choppy trading session on Tuesday. There were no big moves in either direction and the indexes closed not far from their neutral lines.




Price on the S&P does seem to be hitting resistance in the high 4180s. The DWCPF is also hitting resistance (near 2250). Is it near time for another dip? RSI is flat on both charts. Momentum is biased slightly lower on the S&P, but is still rising on the DWCPF.



Breadth dipped modestly and remains bullish.

I can't read much into today's action, but the market feels like its running out of steam. We may see some weakness soon prior to another possible push to the upside, but that's just a possibility. Since NAAIM was bullish, I suspect the market will get on track to the upside again at some point.

I remain bullish for now, but watching resistance levels on both charts.

 

[coolhand]

It was another sloppy trading session today with the S&P and DWCPF both posted modest losses.




We can see that price didn't move all that much on either chart. The S&P and DWCPF both seem to be hitting resistance. It's as if the market is telling the bears "I'm ready to roll over, you can short now". And then the market will likely take off once again. Yeah, the bears love that game. :laugh:



Cumulative breadth looked good today despite the negative close. It remains bullish.

We get to see what NAAIM thinks of this action tomorrow when they post their latest sentiment reading.

I remain bullish for now.

 

[coolhand]

Today, the market gave us a mixed close, with the S&P advancing and the DWCPF pulling back. Neither were big moves.




So we can see that price pushed past resistance on the S&P, while it was rejected on the DWCPF. Momentum is still more or less flat on the S&P, but hinting at turning down on the DWCPF. I'd take it with a grain of salt right now.



Breadth ticked higher and remains bullish.

NAAIM came in a bit more bullish today. They are pretty bulled up overall. I always look higher on readings like this.

While the DWCPF continues to have its struggles, the bulls have at least pushed price near its all-time high. Today's rejection is likely a temporary set-back; at least that's how I am looking at it. With NAAIM still bulled up, I'm looking higher on both indexes, but will the S&P begin leading again?

I remain bullish.

 

[mmk119]

Coolhand. did you see the NAAIM post by Bullit?

 

[coolhand]

Coolhand. did you see the NAAIM post by Bullit?

I learned about NAAIM from a Wall Street Pro (over 30 years experience). NAAIM is smart money. That's all I generally need to know and because they are smart money they shouldn't be second guessed (as a general rule). There are plenty of distractions out there. One can find a counter narrative to anything and everything on any topic and on any given day. It's a great way to run around in circles.

 

[mmk119]

so right you are. thank you

 

[coolhand]

Friday's negative action capped what ended up to be a lackluster week.




Price fell on both charts Friday. The S&P ended up with only a very modest gain on the week, while the DWCPF took a moderate weekly loss. It's definitely been a slog for the S&P the past 2 weeks and also for the DWCPF. Upward traction has been difficult during that time. But the downside hasn't been there for the bears either. And it's still a bull market, so unless something changes I have to keep looking higher. Momentum has turned down on both charts.



Cumulative breadth fell on Friday, but the signal remains bullish.

Our TSP Talk sentiment survey remained bullish this week, which keeps us in line with the NAAIM reading.

So, while the indexes have been tracking sideways of late, the fact that this is still a bull market should carry significant weight unless proven otherwise. And since NAAIM remains bullish, it's easy to remain committed to the long side for now. The fact that the bears have been a non-factor helps too.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

It was another uninspiring day for the market on Monday. That's not necessarily a bad thing, just boring more than anything else.




Price didn't move much on either chart. The S&P was modestly higher, while the DWCPF modestly lower. Momentum remains down, but it's not affecting price a whole lot. It's that uninspiring nature I mentioned above.



Breadth actually moved higher and remains bullish.

There isn't a lot to say about the action that I didn't already say. As uninspiring as it is, the trend does still remain up. I would sure like to see the DWCPF break out to the upside finally. It's dragging its feet (or digging in its heels).

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

We'll, we got an inspiring day today. It just wasn't for the bulls, but rather the bears who got some inspiration. All thanks to higher interest rate talks.




Price on the S&P fell, but did close well off its low of the day. Price also fell on the DWCPF, testing support at the 50 dma, which it did successfully as it close above that level after spending some time under it. Momentum is falling on both charts. I have to wonder why NAAIM has been so bullish. Is something else coming that turns things up?



Breadth dipped, but not a lot. The signal remains bullish.

Are the days of easy gains over? It sure is starting to feel that way. Looking at the DWCPF, we can see that we have a double top over the past 2.5 months. The S&P has fared much better, but it has largely stalled for more than 2 weeks. I am not bearish on this data, but it is noteworthy and certainly something to watch.

So, today's action wasn't what the bulls were looking for, but technical damage remains pretty light to this point. Since NAAIM has been bullish, I'm assuming price will turn back up at some point. But I'm still at least somewhat concerned about the DWCPF trading in a range as long as it has. Since the S&P has been trending higher during this time (expect the past couple of weeks), I have given the benefit of the doubt to small caps that they would eventually play catch up. We'll just have to keep watching the action for more clues as time goes on.

I remain bullish, but I am not complacent.

 

[coolhand]

Current market character continued to dish up and down action with a mixed closed today.




The S&P managed to eke out a very modest gain, while the DWCPF fell for the 6th trading day in a row. Price on that index also closed just under the 50 dma. Will it hold? That's what we want to watch. Momentum remains down.



Breadth ticked modestly higher and remains on the bullish side.

This market isn't what it used to be. We are not seeing even trading. Breadth remains okay (not great), but price is struggling to get upside traction; especially on the DWCPF.

We're still a couple of days from a fresh NAAIM reading. The action isn't terrible, but it isn't great either. I remain bullish, but how long can this market continue to tread water (especially the small caps).

 

[coolhand]

The latest NAAIM reading came in less bullish, but still bullish. I note that they are still not showing much inclination to short this market.

 

[coolhand]

A familiar theme continued in market trading today. The S&P showed resilience in fighting off early (moderate) weakness and turned back up to eventually post a solid gain. The DWCPF also started out weak, much weaker than the S&P, and while it did stage a comeback in the afternoon, it was too little, too late and it closed out the session with a moderate loss.




We can see that the S&P finished the session not far off its all-time high, while price on the DWCPF continues to dig deeper and closed under its 50 dma for the 2nd day in a row. It's hard to be bullish on that DWCPF chart. I am going to go neutral on it at this point. Momentum continued to fall on the DWCPF, while the on the S&P it appears that it "may" be turning back up. We'll have to see. Price on the DWCPF is currently testing support under the 50 dma. Let's see if it holds.



Breadth ticked higher on the day, but its gains are modest. It fits in with what we see with the struggling DWCPF that this bull market is not acting as strong as it once did. This may be an early warning (which is why I watch the smart money).

Speaking of smart money, NAAIM tempered their bullishness, but they were still bullish overall. They are definitely not showing much enthusiasm for the short side of the market to this point.

I had hoped the DWCPF would break out of its long term range by now, but it hasn't and instead is struggling just to maintain the 50 dma, which has flat-lined. That index is going nowhere right now. For this reason I am moving back to a neutral stance on the DWCPF, but will maintain a bullish stance on the S&P.

 

[nasa1974]

"S" fund sucks.
But hoping for an uptick soon.